ghostpainter
I Write for the Apocalypse
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| Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion Nov. 5-16
Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion Nov. 5-16
630 PM EDT Mon. Nov. 2, 2009
Models agree on a zonal to weakly amplified flow for the period Nov. 5-9 across the nation most of the period, then amplifying thereafter.
Models and ensembles are in very good agreement on the 500 hpa pattern for the period Nov. 8-12. The ensembles are forecasting large positive height anomalies over eastern North America and troughs across western North America. The European ensembles produce a similar but more amplified pattern across the nation than the Canadian. The European operational model depicts a deeper trough than the European ensembles. Below normal temperatures are forecast across the Southwest into the central Rockies. Above normal temperatures are forecast along the East coast and the upper Mississippi Valley. Above normal precipitation is forecast across the Rockies. Below normal precipitation is forecast from the eastern Plains to the East coast.
The Canadian and the GFS ensembles are in fair agreement on the forecast 500 hpa height anomalies for the period Nov. 10-16. Ensemble models are in general agreement in forecasting a positive height anomaly over Canada and the northern part of the nation. However, there is some disagreement on the forecast of the location of a trough over the nation among the ensemble means. The Canadian ensembles generally indicating progression of a broader trough over the center of the nation compared to the GFS ensembles, which indicate a weak trough farther west. Little change is expected in the temperature and precipitation anomalies.
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