No, you're not, do some odds - if you leave early you'll SAVE AT MOST (remember proration) $60. After 6 months the contract is cheaper even if you are leaving early... If you do NOT leave early - and most people will keep a phone for a year at least - you save $290.
I'd say the odds are much better with the one year contract. Two year? No way, not to save only another $70... and the fact the phone is out of warranty that second year!