Is Cable Poised To Dominate The Telcos? > As bad as it is for the telcos...

As bad as it is for the telcos...

It's going to be interesting to follow over the next decade or two.

I believe that long term, as the waves continue to get higher and higher, the only thing sea-worthy will be FTTP or wireless solutions. I see copper as the sinking ship, and new DOCSIS iterations merely a patch to the inevitable. The telcos merely felt the wrath of the coming storm with their copper first.

reply to Rick
Personally, I tend to agree with you largely.. but, I also see other motives on the cable companies parts in many areas.

Comcast.. their caps.. 250gb. It gives telco something to point their finger at. As capacity increases, so will the caps.. and I believe they're working towards that.

DOCSIS 3.0, the removal of analogs, etc. is only the next step in the game of leap frog between the two providers. However, as in any game of leapfrog, it eventually comes to an end where someone is in the front and stays there..

Comcast going up to 3.0 is going to dramatically leave most telephone companies in the dust for a long time and they won't be able to catch up.

With that said, there are still benefits to telephone.

1) They aren't cable and people don't always like cable.

2) They are a cheaper alternative for those who don't care about speeds and maybe don't want caps.

3) Telco can reach where cable sometimes doesn't. I know this works in reverse too, but still.. I'm talking about why telco has advantages as well.

But, with the above said, and as the internet requires more power behind it, this WILL ultimately cause problems for telephone if they don't invest and expand now. Even what AT&T is doing won't last them too long compared to what DOCSIS 3.0 is doing for cable.

At some point, when cable can increase its capacity, who knows, maybe they will lift their caps, or create a tier with out caps, and remove any kind of fuel telco has against them. I mean, you can only sell a slaughtered cow for so long before its too spoiled.

Telephone will become in the same world of hurt as the post office is becoming. The post office is bound to fail, or require a lot of subsidies, to survive as the internet continues to make it less significant. They're already talking about wanting to cut Saturdays again, and raise rates even further. The telephone company (copper) can see a dramatic shrink in their business as Voip, and Cellular service takes over their domain.. and a shrinking DSL base will only hurt too. Eventually, if they don't evolve, it will become more and more expensive to maintain a copper plant, which they have to no matter how many customers, as their customer base shrinks.

Of the providers out there, Cable, Satellite, Telephone, Fiber services, cell phone and internet based 3rd party providers, telephone stands to be in the most world of hurt.

reply to Rick
Not a chance. Geographical areas of non-competition will still save them.

There's still most of the country with only 2 real choices for broadband, and neither one of them is true fiber/FIOS type service.
--
"Fascism should more properly be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power." -- Benito Mussolini

reply to jmn1207
Coax mixed with fiber has a long way to go.. what's made it hard for cable for a while now is the spectrum hungry analog services.

Don't think that DOCSIS 3.0 is the last step for DOCSIS. As time goes on, there will be DS4, DS5.. etc.. right now they're bonding 4 channels.. who's to say they can't bond 8 or 12? As technology continues to move forward, so will cable's capacity. Fiber isn't the only holy grail out there.. it's not exactly what cable medium you're using, it's how you use it.

Even telephone can be significant - although a stupid investment to make - if they bonded lines together. The fact for telephone is that if they're going to move to line bonding, they might as well move towards fiber - it's only a smart migration path. Coax cable, however, has plenty of bandwidth to expand still. However, they're also in the position to go fiber if they really needed to.

But, if DOCSIS iterations, as you say, are only a patch.. well, you see it as a patch, but it's more clearly the next step. SOME people have been ruling coax out for year when it was at 1.5 and even 5 meg service.. they've been saying that it's had it's run.. so far, almost 10 years later, they've been proven wrong.. The fact is that we're no where near the end of life for a hybrid fiber coax system; not for a long time. You also can't compare a small tiny strand of twisted copper to that of a very large gauge piece of copper on coax, which has a FAR greater bandwidth available to it.

reply to KrK
The telcos are beginning to lose thaose areas to wireless which in the telco arena is the same bottom line but the cable plant is being supported by fewer and fewer customers. Up until recently people kept their landline and may have had DSL now they may drop the landline for wireless so the copper cable is producing less revenue. In areas with Cable if the service is not terrible the customer go for the 3 play or TV and internet and their telephone goes to wireless.
The other competition is medium sized towns building a FTTH like Wilson, NC. They are telling the Telcos and Cable if you don't build it we will. I saw where a group of Vermont towns were going to build a FTTH to every home that had telephone or power. This is one of the first systems that did not stop at the town limit. I can support a group that do the county as well as the town. I may start a push in the small town I live in if for no other reason then for AT&T to get off their duff and upgrade their system. Do it or lose it.

I'd love to see it.

reply to Rick

Comcast does not have a wireless solution.

reply to fiberguy

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