Regional Talk > Texas Gulf Coast > 42,000 Gallons of Oil...

42,000 Gallons of Oil...

It is starting to look like this could turn very nasty. I think currents will bring it south. Newest estimate is 5000 barrels per day since the accident. I think that makes it 210,000 gallons per day.

At that rate, the spill could easily eclipse the worst oil spill in U.S. history — the 11 million gallons that leaked from the grounded tanker Exxon Valdez in Alaska's Prince William Sound in 1989 — in the three months it could take to drill a relief well and plug the gushing well 5,000 feet underwater on the sea floor.

»news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100430/ap_···sion_284

What I heard this evening on NPR is it will do that in 52 days.

It sounded like they are worried about the eastern gulf as opposed to Texas. This may be a good topic for the weather forum as weather seems to be playing a major part of the effort. I think currents are also weather driven. I'll start one if you haven't when I can post from a real computer instead of my iPhone.

For the second day now, choppy seas, high waves and now high winds are hindering efforts to control this spill. I have started a new thread in the weather forum to discuss how weather will play a part in the control and limiting damages.

»Gulf Oil Spill and Weather

reply to SandShark
The fact that the wellhead cannot be closed is very bad as the well is just dumping in the ocean with no end in site. I am not sure where NPR gets the 52 days, as far as I have heard the best that can be done at this point is drill a relief well. Even if they were to get that drilled in 52 days they would have to pump enough out of the reserve until the pressure was reduced enough for the well to stop spewing. This could be much worse. Pretty much a worse case scenario right now.

No Florida trip this summer.

52 days is the time it will take to reach the size of the Exxon spill based on 210,000 gal/day. At this point some seem to think the flow could be much higher.

The best I have heard is that it will take about 3 months to get it under control with a new well.

At this point it appears that gulf currents and weather will direct the spill eastward. Really bad if it enters the gulf stream.

Ahh that makes sense. I think this has the potential to be a disaster the scope of which we have not seen before and it is at our southern doorstep. All kinds of bad things can occur if this thing continues to spew all summer long. Does anyone know how much of the oil can be picked up in a hurricaine to be dropped on land. Who knows what is going to happen with this.

No idea on how much can be picked up. But I did hear something interesting today on NPR. They were talking about using dispersants on the oil and the comment was that very rough seas can do this naturally. Now they were not talking about a Hurricane and this would be an extremely bad time for one with the well still out of control. Still, it made me think.

I do not know much about dispersants. I have doubt that it will make the oil "go away", I think most likely it will break up the oil into smaller parts. The oil is not consumed it is just not so obvious, but I think it will still have a terrible effect on offshore marine life for quite a while.

I see BP is going to try and drop some large inverted funnel looking thing called a containment chamber, that even if exceeds expectations will only stop 80% of the leak. That would still leave 10k barrels a day leak. I sure wish them exceptional success.

On a satirical note, saw t-shits on sale "BP bringing oil to American shores"

According to NPR, this could be an Exxon Valdez every FOUR days.

"sophisticated scientific analysis of seafloor video made available Wednesday by the oil company BP shows that the true figure is closer to 70,000 barrels a day, NPR's Richard Harris reports."

Here's another good read

»www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010···-footage

Flow analysis is pretty tough when they do not know the Gas/Oil ratio and have no accurate flow rate coming out of the well. It certainly is a terrible leak and BP needs to really get it fixed asap.

The reports that are coming from hearing are leading to a very mismanaged well operation. It was cost cutting (ie removing the weighted mud early), the casing/cement not holding up, and poor equipment (inadequate BOPs) that led to the "Perfect Blow Out/Leak". There are reports they had pressure data indicating the well was coming back on them and even stopped the mud displacement, but still 11 people died and they were having a safety party while this was happening to boot. Whoever the "company man" was on this well failed in the extreme.

There was a Frontline story on PBS about 15-20 years ago. The story chronicled a British Petroleum operation around Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, I believe. An employee whistleblower helped document how BP bean counters had calculated how much the operation would produce and tied that information into how little maintenance and overhead would be needed to keep the facility functional before they would abandon it. In other words, BP was maximizing profits over potential environmental disasters and employee safety. I've never forgotten that story.

Yeah they are kind of known for having those issues. Look at the plant explosion in Houston that killed people a few years ago. They are far from being "stellar" when it comes to safe operations.

In fact in the Guardian interview the CEO was talking about how much better a job he was doing. I guess 11 killed somehow is an improvement.

reply to SandShark
I heard today that BP is asking anyone and everyone for better ideas on how to fix this problem.
I think the siphon tube they are using is a good idea but they need to use a bigger one. Right now it seems like they are trying to drain a swimming pool with a drinking straw.
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I'm right 98% of the time..... Who cares about the other 3%

reply to SandShark
My brother used to work on BP owned rigs in Prudhoe Bay. He pretty much refused to work on them after a while.
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This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

reply to SandShark
Anyone on the coast able to take pics? It seems BP is involved in a huge cover-up... Surprise!

»www.nydailynews.com/news/nationa···ulf.html
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Islam is a hate crime: »www.thememriblog.org

reply to SandShark
It's déjà vu all over again. This makes me very angry.

BP made a series of money-saving shortcuts and blunders that dramatically increased the danger of a destructive oil spill in a well that an engineer ominously described as a "nightmare" just six days before the blowout, according to documents released Monday that provide new insight into the causes of the disaster.

»news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_gulf_oil_spill

reply to SandShark

Estimated Gallons/Barrels Leaked

Department of Energy

BP Worst Case

Expert's Worst Case

reply to SandShark

NOAA Claims Oil Is Mostly Gone