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reply to hottboiinnc
Re: How does this make sense?
said by hottboiinnc:Enertia never keeps a company alive forever. What happened to the telegraph and western union?
Bankrupt? where do you get this at? FiOS isn't going to run them into bankruptcy. Have you seen the numbers on how many people sign up with FiOS compared to the number of homes passed? It's not very many. And at least 70% of all customers will NOT switch providers regardless if they have horrible service or not. This is due to people do NOT like change. That is what the cable companies are banking on. Plus how many people (average people on the street) know the difference between FiOS and OOL? Besides they both offer Internet and TV. One is cable and one is VZ?
Its true it will be years, if ever, before FIOS is the majority, but it doesn't have to be the majority to harm CV. CV doesn't just compete with FIOS, it competes with Sat TV. If CV trys to undercut FIOS, which I believe it has been doing with retention offers and triple play renewals, its going to start bastardizing itself and cut its dividend and taking on debt, then eventually it will go bankrupt to shed its debt so it can try to compete again. Paul Allen kept his cable company after bankruptcy, Dolans can too. CV has 7.5B market cap, VZ 80B. In a war of attrition its obvious who will win.
Most people can't tell the difference between SD and HD, and can't identify MPEG artifacting. I'm not sure to what extent people "just live" with congested cable nodes, and how many understand the dialup like (5 years ago) loading times on their OOL line. Congested nodes also can clear themselves up by having everyone switch to FIOS but its still lost revenue.
I know a couple technically illiterate people who switched to FIOS because it was "more expensive" and therefore "must be better" just like the ads say. There is value in that. Also when the next gee wiz TV technology comes out, like 3D TV or 1080P cable network broadcast or QuadHD comes out, which requires atleast 1 QAM per channel, CV will be screwed. Marry 3D TV or QuadHD to sports, and consumers will come like bugs to a lightbulb to impress the Joneses just like with HD. FIOS will be able to just turn on a 10 or 25 gbps lamba for whatever new technology comes, and swap the ONTs as people order the new tech. CV will have to rebuild their plant into Active FTTP.
When asian cars first came to the USA, people swore off they would never purchase tiny unpatriotic cars. Now Toyota is #2 in sales in USA. What happened? People don't like change right?
Nope! nobody likes change. But all this about CV you're saying "you believe" I can believe too. But VZ will NEVER touch CV. As i said; do you know how many people sign up per homes passed with FiOS? Search for it on here and on the VZ Investor Site. The numbers are not pretty- that is the whole reason people are not switching besides people don't like change.
As far as change; who is going to switch to something that is more expensive when their current product works? Do you go out and buy a 3D Samsung TV just because it's new? Of course you don't. That wouldn't be cost affective. Everyone knows this.
The Market Cap? LOL what market cap? Just the homes they pass in NY? They can expand that over and over again easily by buying up smaller MSOs which they just proved they'd do. As far as a congested node; you do realize that most if not 99.99% of that has been fixed with CV right?
Also VZ only brought out FiOS because the gov't told them they wouldn't have to share it and due to they HAD to. You can't rely on DSL for ever. Although MSOs can rely on their coax for MANY MANY years to come unlike VZ.
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