 BF69Premium
join:2004-07-28
Camden, TN | they are not seeing the big picture Let have fun with math
From 2009 -2010
average usage goes from 90MB -298MB per month. They play that as not a big deal and proof that 2GB is "excessive". Well at 230% growth the average amount a data used will exceed 2 GB by the end of 2011. That's in just 18 months. Even if growth is only half that you exceed 2 GB per month average within 30 months. If the growth rate is just 1/3 that within 5 year the average user will be using 5 GB a month. Don't most successful companies have 5 YEAR plans? At&t doesn't even have a 2 1/2 year plan.
Also if you look at the data, last year only 10% used more than 200 MB per month( which is the cap on at&t's "light" plan ) this year it's 30%. At that growth rate by next year it'll be 90%. Even if the growth rate is cut in half you still reach 90% by 2012. If you cut that growth rate by 3/4 you still reach 90% wthin 5 years.
Simple fact is within 3 years 95% of at&t's customers will be exceeding the 200 GB cap for the "light" plan and half their customers will be using 3-5 GB a month. Perhaps more. |
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openbox9Premium
join:2004-01-26
japan
kudos:2 | And you don't think pricing will adjust as time progresses, usage patterns change, and infrastructure grows? Three years is a long time in the technology world. |
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BF69Premium
join:2004-07-28
Camden, TN | said by openbox9:And you don't think pricing will adjust as time progresses, usage patterns change, and infrastructure grows? Three years is a long time in the technology world. Based on their recent history? no I don't. If anything there pricing has gone BACKWARDS. Also considering their pricing is behind the times and future changes will also be behind the times. Their 200 MB "light" tier. Well this study already shows the average users uses 300 MB. So it's already behind. So what in 2 years they change it to 500 MB when the average user will be using 2 GB?
The $10 per GB overage at&t has should be at most $1. So what in 5 years they lower to $5? Guess what that would still be behind TODAY let alone in 5 years.
What was the cap for their data card plan 3 years ago? 5 GB. what is it today? 5 GB. It's the EAXCT SAME after 3 years. yet I'm some how supposed to believe at&t is going to adapt? Are you telling me at&t couldn't throw a bone customers way and give them and extra 1 GB per year? The only thing they changes was lower the cap for an totally super insane $502 per GB overage down to an insane $51.20 per GB. It doesn't cost them 1/100th to provide an extra GB. And until at&t can provide PROOF otherwise I call bullshit. |
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openbox9Premium
join:2004-01-26
japan
kudos:2 | said by BF69:Also considering their pricing is behind the times and future changes will also be behind the times. Their 200 MB "light" tier. Well this study already shows the average users uses 300 MB. So it's already behind. So what in 2 years they change it to 500 MB when the average user will be using 2 GB? Why are the tiers behind the times? Because they don't offer unlimited for $5? AT&T offers a different tier for those that use more than 200 MB. Yes, I would expect the tiers to scale as time moves along.said by BF69:The $10 per GB overage at&t has should be at most $1. So what in 5 years they lower to $5? Guess what that would still be behind TODAY let alone in 5 years. That's your opinion. It seems that the market disagrees.said by BF69:What was the cap for their data card plan 3 years ago? 5 GB. what is it today? 5 GB. What's the usage? How has it changed over the last three years?said by BF69:Are you telling me at&t couldn't throw a bone customers way and give them and extra 1 GB per year? We won't know that for another year. |
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