| It's more like cable/dsl, not blueray/hd-dvd It's odd that most think only one can exist. This isn't like blueray/hd-dvd, where it is best for one to win out. Cable and DSL are separate industries just as are 3GPP and IEEE. WiMAX is IEEE and will continue down that path. LTE is 3GPP and will continue down that path.
There won't be any benefit from everyone going LTE because...
- LTE is on so many bands (over a dozen) that there won't be global roaming anyway. WiMAX has a better chance to roam globally as it's mostly on only 3 bands.
- Telcom has much more strict control compared to WiMAX, meaning WiMAX would likely have more consumer electronic products as CE makers are tied into IEEE. They just need to drop in a pre-approved WiMAX chipset. To get onto LTE, devices will be under telcom industry control. Do you really want that?
Now Sprint should eventually convert CDMA spectrum to LTE (5+ years) but hopefully Clear will stick with WiMAX for the long haul. It makes sense for them to test LTE in case they want to expand (or switch), but the LTE interest doesn't at all spell demise for WiMAX as it is already deployed covering about 600M in the world and will hit 1B this year if India is still on board. India and Clear will be key to keeping WiMAX as a major player, otherwise it will then likely become just a niche. Saying WiMAX is niche is like saying cable modem is niche, or DSL is niche. They are simply two different industries. |
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| I don't see Sprint going to LTE. They're money is behind WiMax and as far as testing; it would make sense for a roaming technology for others; like TMO and T.
But I agree with you otherwise. They'll both be here but WiMax does have its advantage now as being in the customer's hand and with 2 phones on the market and more and more data cards coming out with Sprint, it's not going anywhere. Sprint and Clear will keep that baby alive and going.
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| When there is an LTE voice standard, I'd bet that Sprint does eventually convert CDMA to LTE as CDMA does not have a future strategic path. CDMA will be around for many years but Qualcom is making it easier to switch to LTE. I'd be very surprised if Sprint isn't going LTE on 1900Mhz band in 5 or so years. Since Tmob also likely will pursue LTE by then on 1900 band, I wouldn't be surprised if the two merge by then.
Clear will need more investment from the cable industries in WiMAX and not depend on Sprint to support them. If CableCo's want mobile access, they are better off with WiMAX (IEEE, which they are indirectly tied into anyway) than to be under the reigns of the telcom industry (3GPP). The CableCo's probably control the future of WiMAX as a major player in the US. If they stop investing, WiMAX will then likely become a niche as it gives reason for Clear to switch to LTE. |
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| Wimax could do a voice standard as well. they could do VoIP all the way on the network. TMO has no plans on moving anytime soon so they could still do Wimax and still merge without a problem.
I don't see DT getting rid of TMO USA since it is still their cash cow. I could see TMO USA and TD taking Sprint though.
The only way Clear will not depend on Sprint is if Sprint sells their stake and Clear can pick up a few more national resellers of their service. Maybe CableVision, Bright House, WOW? They need some HUGE resellers or investors to help pick up what Sprint would stop giving them. Clear also depends on them for their own data which they'd still have to pay them. TMO and Sprint could do dual phones. LTE and WiMax which would work out. The same as GSM and CDMA a phones. Two networks 1 carrier. I can also see Sprint picking up Cricket and moving them into their family of companies and pushing all of their prepaid customers over to WiMax to get start trimming the CDMA and iDEN networks. They could also push them all under one brand and be done with it, instead of having Boost Mobile- iDEN and CDMA, Virgin mobile and what ever else they own.
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| I wonder if Sprint would ever let go of >50% Clear. I'm not sure but I think Sprint still 'owns' the spectrum, which is hugely valuable. If Sprint does become under 50% owner of Clear, I would think that Sprint would then lease that spectrum to Clear and not 'sell' it to them. Not sure of the arrangements though. |
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| I think that Sprint still owns most of that spectrum. The only thing that they did was put the Xhom, the spectrum and then what resources they had on their already small but being built network.
If I was Sprint or even Dan, there is no way I would let go of that take. I don't think the BoD or shareholders would do it either. Sprint needs the Clear network in order to start off loading their current CDMA and iDEN networks. When they intergrate voice by VoIP they'll be able to do it more and more but not until they are able to build out WiMax even more and offer lower price 4g data/voice phones. Without offering the phones at a lower price (entry phones) Sprint will NEVER be able to fully change over.
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Sammer
join:2005-12-22
Canonsburg, PA | reply to xenophon
said by xenophon:- LTE is on so many bands (over a dozen) that there won't be global roaming anyway. WiMAX has a better chance to roam globally as it's mostly on only 3 bands. Not only that but anyone who converts from mobile WiMAX to LTE will probably choose Time Division Duplex LTE introducing another incompatibility to roaming. The proponents of LTE are counting on TDD LTE to marginalize WiMAX but with most LTE being Frequency Division Duplex is that really wise? |
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