Regional Talk > Southwest Chat > Mountain West States Jobs won't return for 7 years

Mountain West States Jobs won't return for 7 years

said by Brookings Institue--> »www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/se···-7-year/ :

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Report: Jobs won’t return to pre-recession levels for 7 years

The Mountain West region, which includes Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, Idaho and New Mexico, is on pace to wait another seven years before job levels return to those before the recession, according to a report released by Brookings Mountain West.

The second-quarter report from the think tank at UNLV said Las Vegas and Boise, Idaho, lost jobs, while Phoenix saw a 1 percent gain during the quarter.

“It is clear when looking across metropolitan area economies with unusual reliance on highly cyclical industries — like housing and tourism — places them at greater risk of experiencing a more wrenching recession than others,” the report said.

Brookings reported the GMP (gross metropolitan product) that measures economic growth had fallen 4.2 percent from its peak in Las Vegas and 0.1 percent from the first quarter of 2010.

The report said housing prices in the region — Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, Idaho and New Mexico — are unlikely to fall much further. Housing prices are undervalued in most metropolitan areas, including Las Vegas.

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said by Same report as above--> »denver.bizjournals.com/denver/st···y27.html :

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Denver's output almost back to pre-recession peak

Denver's output almost back to pre-recession peak, says Brookings report - Denver Business Journal
The Denver area's gross metropolitan product -- the value of all its produced goods and services -- has almost returned to pre-recession levels, and other Colorado cities are doing even better, according to a new Brookings Mountain West report on the region's economy.

The latest quarterly "Mountain Monitor" report, released Wednesday and focusing on the year's second quarter, says the Denver-Aurora area's gross metropolitan product, or GMP, was just 0.1 percent less in Q2 than its pre-recession peak.

GMP in the Denver area rose 0.9 percent between the first and second quarters, the report adds.

Elsewhere in Colorado, GMP in Boulder has risen above pre-recession levels by 3.5 percent, Fort Collins-Loveland by 3.1 percent, Colorado Springs by 1.9 percent, Greeley by 1.7 percent, Grand Junction by 1.4 percent and Pueblo by 0.4 percent, Brookings says.

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Try telling it to other parts of the country. Heck in AZ we could be worse than some chronically down and out states at this point.
I hate posters saying just take any job or its over or etc. They have no clue how much some things bottomed out in AZ. While they took pay cuts or went slightly different routes we in AZ have thousands applying for what few retail jobs are open. When I can walk in a retail store and not see people applying at the kiosk who look like they should have a professional level job I will know the economy is improving. No working at McDonalds when you were layed off from a high income professional job in your forties does not show work ethic or not wanting to cost the government your couple hundred in unemployment. When you are unemployed you cost people money you know so get off the unemployment and do something. So no it does not show work ethic or not wanting to be a frowned upon welfare person. It shows desperation.
Nope its a quirk do what you have to the economy is improving is what some posters in some threads say. No unemployment for you. Just work there are jobs if you take anything and are not lazy. Maybe they should apply around here sometime.

I don't disagree with much of what you say. However we can't use "McDonalds" as a basis. In reality there ARE job openings in AZ (and every place else). Consider:

There are 903 Arizona government job openings right now:
»www.americajob.com/Arizona.asp

There are 942 high tech positions open within 40 miles of Scotssdale right now: »seeker.dice.com/jobsearch/servle···sdale+AZ

Monster.com is showing 1080 job openings within 40 miles of Scottsdale as well right now: »jobsearch.monster.com/PowerSearc···40&pp=25

Plus, lower paying jobs generally are not advertised.

Now there are 6.5 Million people in AZ, and the current unemployment rate is 9.7%, so about 600,000 people that are looking for jobs, remain unemployed.

Lets drill that down a little since there is no such thing as full employment. If the unemployment rate was 5% or less, we probably wouldn't be having this conversation. So in reality Arizona needs about 300,000 jobs. And you are correct, there is probably 1 job right now for every 30 or so job seekers.

I would be willing to bet that much like Nevada, probably of the 300,000 unemployed, about 1/3, or 100,000 were directly or indirectly in the construction industry while AZ was booming. Those jobs will never come back. So again like Nevada, AZ will probably see people move out, looking for "greener pastures", just like they moved to AZ to find construction jobs.

At the end of the day, AZ just needs 150,000 or so net-new jobs, and like the article pointed out, it may take 7 years to create those. Things are not good. And a good chunk of new jobs will not be paying what people were use to. (Thus the argument about taking whatever job is available NOW). But hopefully, based on the above, they are not as bad as the media makes them out to be.