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rahvin112

join:2002-05-24
Sandy, UT
reply to wifi4milez

Re: What are they smoking?

Most people don't realize that part of the dot-bomb growth in the late 90's was the installation of thousands of miles of dark fiber. Between L3, Qwest and a dozen others there is so much long and medium haul fiber in the ground right now that they might never need to install it again. I don't think L3 has even lit (powered up) 1/3 of the fiber they have in the ground right now.

There's a huge glut of capacity that was driven by the mythical "exaflood" and investors that were throwing money at anything associated with the internet. (plus good planning that knowing the digging was expensive so putting in dozens of fibers and only using a couple immediately was the norm) In fact the only thing driving prices are maintenance and bond payments on the carriers that didn't go bankrupt. Most of the long haul providers barely make money and I wouldn't be surprised if the economics are the same in the medium haul market. The key point here is that the only thing driving prices is maintenance and bond payments. More traffic means maintenance costs spread over more data meaning prices are constantly going down. Fiber prices are dirt cheap, I remember when a DS3 cost $50K a month. The only thing limiting consumers right now is last mile. Once the last mile can handle it there is plenty of capacity in the long haul market.

gunther_01
Premium
join:2004-03-29
Saybrook, IL
Your right, there is plenty of fiber in the ground... Good luck tying in to it. I have 8 1.5" ducts that run 10 blocks away from my main PoP. They are dark, and it would be great to get a gig or two for cheap. The $100k they'd want to "tap" in to it and set a station is a bit more then we can handle. Oh, and the $20k to string the fiber to me.

You have got to be kidding it's the last mile holding things up.

iansltx

join:2007-02-19
Austin, TX
kudos:2
Reviews:
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reply to rahvin112
"Fiber is dirt cheap" - How cheap are you thinking? If people want to be able to support Netflix my estimate is that bandwidth will need to be in the $15 per megabit range if you're buying a capped pipe, $20-$25 on 95th percentile.

Also, the VAST majority of the fiber you're talking about is run between major interconnection points (Dallas, LA, NYC, Chicago, Atlanta, Ashburn) with another significant percentage running to big towns that aren't IXPs (San Antonio, Austin, Salt Lake City, Washington DC). Once you get beyond those big cities you end up with at most three fiber providers (ILEC, CLEC like Level3 or someone else, cableco) and in some cases one or more of those won't sell you fiber (try getting fiber from Verizon at a decent price where they're selling DSL only now, and plan to for the foreseeable future...a T3 would be $6000+).

As I mentioned before, connectivity on the consumer side isn't sustainable if they're running Netflix and the provider is paying $100+ per megabit on bandwidth. The economics just don't work out.


wifi4milez
Big Russ, 1918 to 2008. Rest in Peace

join:2004-08-07
New York, NY
reply to gunther_01
said by gunther_01:

I have 8 1.5" ducts that run 10 blocks away from my main PoP. They are dark, and it would be great to get a gig or two for cheap.

10 blocks is considered a last mile connection.