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pandora
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Politics aside, does any aspect of the Ryan plan make sense?

I'm not certain about the Ryan plan, but see it discussed a lot. It seems to be an attempt by the Republicans to bundle budget cuts on large programs. I don't know if it's possible to get meaningful cuts from our government at this time. I don't know if the Ryan plan is reasonable. I do see many distortions about this plan based on which news network is discussing it.

Is the Ryan plan reasonable? Is there an alternative from any other source? Any ideas what will happen if we make no changes?

The Ryan Plan is here - »www.roadmap.republicans.budget.house.gov/

Note, I don't care about the party per se, but about how or if we can cut entitlement and other government spending. Thoughts about the wisdom of doing this, and if desirable how to do it, would be appreciated. Political bashing, left or right is not helpful and not my intent.

At this time, I do not believe the Ryan plan is practical, as no significant aspect of it could possibly be passed. It has some interesting concepts, but some (such as vouchers for those over 55 for Medicare) will probably never fly.

My belief is we can't cut federal spending, and must instead significantly increase taxes for Medicare, Social Security (payroll taxes) and radically increase the federal income tax (AMT starting at 25% for all).
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"People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use."


macsierra
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I agree that Ryan is one of the few congress people that realize we can't spend ourselves out of this mess.

But anytime you increase taxes on investment you're going to cripple investment. IE; increases on Medicare, Social Security (payroll taxes) along with Income Taxes cripples investment.

Investment by the private sector is what builds wealth and creates jobs, not investment by the government.
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Will Rodgers never met Harry Reid..


horsemouth
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I think he has that covered under the jobs tab.



Omega
Displaced Ohioan
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reply to pandora
I see your point about raising taxes. I am opposed to it, especially social security.

But there is PLENTY that the government can cut before it has to start increasing its income. There is no reason why the government should be as big as it is now.
--
What smells like blue?



macsierra
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reply to pandora
Productivity is the key to a strong economy. It would be great to have a chart comparing productivity of private sector vs. public sector. But, is it possible to track public sector productivity, since there is very little?
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I was Anti-Obama before it was cool!
Will Rodgers never met Harry Reid..


pandora
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said by macsierra:

Productivity is the key to a strong economy. It would be great to have a chart comparing productivity of private sector vs. public sector. But, is it possible to track public sector productivity, since there is very little?

I have to disagree a bit if you don't mind. I used to be a believer in productivity, but feel there are other factors. I'd like to list them and see what you think:

1) Productivity is up, mostly in the private sector, but real wages are for the most part static or down over the past generation.

2) While productivity is up in the U.S. it is also up in our trading partners, way up, China, India, Germany and others enjoy a lot more productivity than they used to compared to the U.S. over just about any time period you'd care to measure within the past few hundred years.

3) Aside from a very bad balance of trade with China and other Asian countries over high end technological items, we have an equally bad balance of trade issue with many oil producing countries.

4) At this time, 42 to 44 cents of every federal dollar spent was created (not printed) by the Federal Reserve.

5) Domestic U.S. policy has had an adverse and destabilizing effect on the world. QE has undermined the purchasing power of a number of countries. While targeted at China, it may have been a contributing factor to the destabilizing we are seeing in North Africa.

6) Interest rates are being kept artificially low, via government funding of mortgages, by federal reserve, treasury and other policies (social security trust fund investments for example).

7) Liabilities of the federal government for entitlement spending can't be covered long term. This year a 2% decrease in social security withholding has caused that program to go into the red.

8) Neither party has any plan to balance trade or government budgets.

*****

I'd submit that individual productivity is a component, but a small component of our economic problems and that our economic problems spill over to affect the world. Destabilized North Africa for example is causing oil and gold to spike, during a cold and severe winter for many.

We have significant problems, that our government seems unwilling to address. I like that Congressman Ryan has at least taken a stand. I disagree with his stand, but think we need to encourage others to put forward ideas.

My concern is currency collapse. I know many do not believe it is possible, but I can't imagine how many trillions we will print before someone somewhere decides a dollar isn't even worth a dime. Regardless of how productive an individual is in our economy, if the monetary system is collapsing, his or her or even a groups effort won't overcome mismanagement long term by a government out of fiscal control of itself.
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"People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use."

DannyZ
Gentoo Fanboy
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reply to macsierra
I would argue productivity is the key to strong corporate profits.



macsierra
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reply to pandora
What I'm getting at is that we are not producing enough material assets to be competitive in the real world.

For instance, we should be producing enough energy for our own needs along with with excess for our neighbors. We're currently doing just the opposite. I can go on and on.

Our congress did nothing for the last 8 years or so to increase our productivity. All they have done is to decrease productivity with foolish laws..

First thing we need to do is cut government to save our country, but sadly most folks don't see that..
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Will Rodgers never met Harry Reid..


pandora
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said by macsierra:

What I'm getting at is that we are not producing enough material assets to be competitive in the real world.

That goes to balance of trade, government spending and deficits just add to the problem.

We do not produce enough, but we also have government spending spiraling out of control. Either a massive trade imbalance long term, or a massive government deficit not covered by economic growth will damage or destroy us in the long term.

Our government believes we should burn food as fuel to prevent global warming. The consequences of decisions like this only add fire to the fuel of our economic meltdown imo.

Policies that consume most of our spending but don't improve production harm our economy. I believe many think there is a free meal and something to be had for nothing. Eventually the proof that there isn't a free meal will be very painful.
--
"People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use."


dogma
XYZ
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said by pandora:

Policies that consume most of our spending but don't improve production harm our economy. I believe many think there is a free meal and something to be had for nothing. Eventually the proof that there isn't a free meal will be very painful.

There is a "free meal", and its being eaten by retirees as we speak.

Every time I calculate SS/Medicare benefits for any retiree I know, all of which swear they paid into "the system" and thus are owed this entitlement, each retiree would have needed to accrue interest on their deductions (over the lifespan of their working career) adjusting for inflation (4.5% average) - somewhere in the neighborhood of 13% compounded every year.

There is no such an animal that kicks off 13% returns year-over-year, for 40 years, except possibly Berni Madoff. But even Madoff averaged 9.4% ROI and the richest people on the planet were knocking down his door throwing money at him to manage.

So a person who retired 20 years ago, and paid in about $70,000, in Medicare payroll taxes, will wind up collecting about $180,000 in lifetime Medicare benefits. And remember 10,000 people are retiring every day now.

If we assume the debt clock above to be marginally accurate, the load on each taxpayer to service unfunded liabilities alone is over $1 Million.

We don't have a productivity problem.
Our government discretionary expenditure problem is minor by contrast.

We have a debt problem. This represents 66% of all problems.

It is impossible for taxpayers to ever pay $1 Million in taxes during their lifetimes. The reality is more like $200,000 max. And since the population growth is near flat (my new favorite economic focal point), we wont have 5x the current population to cover the spread.

These entitlements must be eliminated altogether and whatever is actually left in the till be disbursed to retirees. Just like the Madoff situation. The only other alternative that I can fathom is a continued ...and accelerated, devaluation of the currency.

In 10 years, today's dollar MUST literally be valued at a dime to break even.
»www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

horsemouth
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Just cut taxes on the rich and it will all work out. [sorry sometimes I just cant help myself]

One way out is free health care for all [green card a must]
A vat and save the money that people pay into social security.
OH and slash the Defence budget by 50%.
$1.00 tax on gas paid to social security.
Tax anything over $250,000.00 at 60%



Omega
Displaced Ohioan
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Those policies would destroy the economy.
--
What smells like blue?


horsemouth
Please Clarify My CSP
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That is what Canada does. Dont forget the huge benefits[cost savings] to business with the vat and no health care costs.



dogma
XYZ
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Lemmie ask you a question;
Are the citizens in Canada as self destructive, -health wise- as the citizens of the U.S. in your opinion?

This is somewhat rhetorical since obesity is thee #1 cause of illness and premature death.
Of course the U.S is #1 per capita at 31% FAT-Asses. (Twice that of Canada, 10x that of Japan) Obesity is the leading preventable causes of health problems and death.

Almost 1 in 10 Americans has preventable Type-2 Diabetes. The cost of this preventable disease is roughly about $250 Billion/Year.

Interestingly, Canada's rate isn't much lower, about 7.5%.

»www.nationmaster.com/graph/hea_o···-obesity

I would be all over free health care for all...if it required a citizen to meet very stringent, yet simple prevention standards. As a matter of fact, just ONE standard: you can not be over a certain weight/body mass/fat ratio index. Which must be tested annually (this mandatory visit to the doctor will also help prevent, or diagnose early, other potentially catastrophic diseases and illnesses). If one doesn't meet this criteria, they pay much more in taxes.

Unfortunately, Like it's twin sister Medicare Part D, the Health Care reform act wasn't written to get Americans Healthier, it was written to enrich a specific industry by forcibly transferring wealth from taxpayers.

We spend almost 3x what Japan spends for Health care per person.
»www.visualeconomics.com/healthca···0-03-01/
The only real difference as I see it, people in Japan ain't FAT. Gluttony is not ingrained in their culture.



disconnected

@snet.net

Just get government out of healthcare, retirement funding, and everything that's not down to the basic moral purpose of government, which is to Protect Individual Rights.
To do the above, we only need a military (with a non-suicidal foreign policy), a court system to adjudicate matters of contract and differences, and a police force to protect individuals from violating eachother's rights.
That cuts about 90% of the cost of government. No more deficit. Heck, no more need for taxes--we could return to the pre 1863 levels of taxation.


DannyZ
Gentoo Fanboy
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So, which countries currently only provide those services, and would you really want to live there?


horsemouth
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reply to dogma

said by dogma:

Interestingly, Canada's rate isn't much lower, about 7.5%.

»www.nationmaster.com/graph/hea_o···-obesity

I would be all over free health care for all...if it required a citizen to meet very stringent, yet simple prevention standards. As a matter of fact, just ONE standard: you can not be over a certain weight/body mass/fat ratio index.

We find it is cheaper just to treat everyone it is cheaper because you catch problems early. My pet peeve is smoking.
If we started cutting people off it will cost more in the long run.
Also doing that will involve the government[more money] and they dont deliver health care[they just pay for it]

I dont see it happening in the US [special interest groups] and you have a ton of them.
1. Farmers If I want to hire a non Canadian I must make sure he has a health card so the cost is not put on the taxpayer.

I can list hundreds of other examples.

pandora
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reply to horsemouth

said by horsemouth:

Just cut taxes on the rich and it will all work out. [sorry sometimes I just cant help myself]

One way out is free health care for all [green card a must]
A vat and save the money that people pay into social security.
OH and slash the Defence budget by 50%.
$1.00 tax on gas paid to social security.
Tax anything over $250,000.00 at 60%

Ouch, increased taxes maybe, a VAT maybe, not certain if a higher gas tax makes sense, maybe.

What do you mean by tax anything over $250,000? Is this referring to profits, dividends, income, purchases, investments, salary, assets? Is this a 60% tax to be applied to individuals, corporations, government, non-profits? Could you elaborate?

Do you have any specific cuts to suggest regarding military spending? Where would you get the 50% from, which cuts would you make?
--
"People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use."

horsemouth
Please Clarify My CSP
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join:2002-03-13
canada

said by pandora:

said by horsemouth:

Just cut taxes on the rich and it will all work out. [sorry sometimes I just cant help myself]

One way out is free health care for all [green card a must]
A vat and save the money that people pay into social security.
OH and slash the Defence budget by 50%.
$1.00 tax on gas paid to social security.
Tax anything over $250,000.00 at 60%

Ouch, increased taxes maybe, a VAT maybe, not certain if a higher gas tax makes sense, maybe.

What do you mean by tax anything over $250,000?

Do you have any specific cuts to suggest regarding military spending? Where would you get the 50% from, which cuts would you make?

If your personal tax return has over $250,000 [after deductions] you pay 60% on anything over that.

I never understood why the us spends so much on the military.[special interest group] Hell cut that by 75% make it random and tell them to stop being pansies. Pay them to fight like the enemy does.

And btw How is that war on drugs going?

pandora
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said by horsemouth:

If your personal tax return has over $250,000 [after deductions] you pay 60% on anything over that.

I never understood why the us spends so much on the military.[special interest group] Hell cut that by 75% make it random and tell them to stop being pansies. Pay them to fight like the enemy does.

And btw How is that war on drugs going?

You don't seem to be articulating specific cuts regarding your suggestion of cuts in military spending. How and what would you cut in U.S. military spending?

You've introduced the war on drugs ... if you have a suggestion regarding how to improve our economic situation in this area, please articulate your economic view.
--
"People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use."

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