 heat84Bit Torrent Apologist
join:2004-03-11
Fort Lauderdale, FL
4 edits | Are the stock market indexes BS? They're almost back to their pre '08 crash levels eventhough the economy isn't. And those pre '08 crash levels were inflated too. I know the indexes are based more on perception than reality, but they're not usually this out of sink with reality I don't think. Although sombody said in a thread around here somewhere months ago, that the DOW should properly be around 2000.
Edit: Actually they're slightly above where they were when the crash happened. I was thinking the DOW was over 14,000 right before the crash, but that was in '07.
»en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:DJIA_···log).svg
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 The PigBazinaPremium
join:2009-09-11 | I guess they are real!
But, I wouldn't buy stocks because of the Index #s!
I made lots of money when the Index #s were down!
It's all about whether or not the company you are interested in is doing good, not how many shares are traded in the overall market! |
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Zoder
join:2002-04-16
Miami, FL | reply to heat84
Sure unemployment still sucks. But haven't you seen the rosy profit reports from corporate America last year? The companies are doing well and that is what the traders care about. Now if there was indication we were entering another recession, I'm sure there would be a big sell off. |
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scross
join:2002-09-13
Cordova, TN | reply to heat84
Yes, like most everything else in the stock and commodity markets, these numbers are manipulated like you wouldn't believe. I don't remember all of the details, and I don't have any good links handy at the moment, but as I recall if you take into account "survivorship bias" (where stock indexes and such simply drop "losers" and replace them with "winners", which is a routine occurrence), then overall the stock market has been a net money loser almost since the day it first opened. Of course, the brokers, bankers, and such always get their cut, don't they?
»en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias |
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| reply to heat84
Yes this is true that they almost back to their crash level, but still many Leading economists of US claim that the US stock market has the potential to rise over 50% in the next couple of years. |
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| said by Nawin:Yes this is true that they almost back to their crash level, but still many Leading economists of US claim that the US stock market has the potential to rise over 50% in the next couple of years.
It also has the potential to drop over 50% |
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 John GaltForward, MarchPremium
join:2004-09-30
Happy Camp
kudos:3 | reply to heat84
Take the time to understand HFT and frontrunning... |
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 SnakeoilIgnore Button. The coward's feature.Premium
join:2000-08-05
Mentor, OH
kudos:1
 ·RoadRunner Cable
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| reply to heat84
With gas prices climbing [for no reason other then libya, maybe the summer driving excuse?], I think the teeter tooter might swing the other way, and the economy will dip down. Last week I paid over 150 bucks for fill up 2 vehicles. That doesn't leave a lot of throw away money in my pocket for things that would help keep people working.
With increasing gas prices, the long cold spell, food prices have also jumped. Fast food is no longer "cheap" eats. It's nearly as cheap to take a family of four to a sit down resturant as it is fast food.
So I think things will make a turn downward.
Though car makers might see an increase in sales as more people move from low mileage to high mileage vehicles.
So that is at least 1 bright spot, though you'll have people taking on more debt that they may find themselves unable to pay in the future, if companies start cutting costs again.
Meaning: I can't see how the market can climb in this type of economy, unless those buying into it are on some type of magic fairy dust or drinking from the government's kool aid of "everything is ok" fountain.
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