| Silver (Gold Pt. Deux) Well the system told me the Gold thread was too old for an anon to reply to so I guess I can followup here.
Silver's up about 25% since I first posted in that thread. How have all you guys been doin? 
BTW, it strikes me that silver and gold's a good hedge to be holding right now against the steadily devaluating US$.
Anyone else have any thoughts? I was being conservative in predicting $50 an ounce silver within 5 years but now I think we could see it by the end of this year or early next. |
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horsemouthPlease Clarify My CSPPremium
join:2002-03-13
canada | I have a sell in at $35.00 Cdn on my paper no plans to sell my physical as of yet. |
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| If you have a sell in at $35 there's a good chance it sold on you today. It was inching mighty close to the $35 mark while I was watching BNN today. Did you check your account this evening to see if it went?
Personally I'm staying in for the long haul. $50 and beyond. The way government is printing money these days it's just valueless paper and have you seen how much a bag of groceries costs these days? |
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horsemouthPlease Clarify My CSPPremium
join:2002-03-13
canada | I dont want any funny money. Just $35.00 Cdn. It is 1.0268 and $34.56 now...so got a bit to go. |
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| reply to lugnut
said by lugnut :Silver's up about 25% since I first posted in that thread. that would be 23rd nov 2010 afaict?
»Re: Gold
that days silver price $27.55
todays $34.33......
said by lugnut :Anyone else have any thoughts? I was being conservative in predicting $50 an ounce silver within 5 years but now I think we could see it by the end of this year or early next.
hmm - and on what basis are you predicting the enormous boost in the world economy/industrial demand for Ag that is the only plausible route to $50/oz silver?? - since Silver is principally an industrial metal that a few people invest in on the side.....  |
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| Silver is the poor man's gold. It's not only useful industrially but also still holds value as an investment and generally pretty much tracks the price of gold. I'm basing my prediction on the economy going to shit, inflation running rampant and $2000 an ounce gold by the end of this year.
BTW, even though silver has lost the photographic market in film, it has more than made up the slack in its use in CD and DVD manufacture. |
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| reply to pauldenton
said by pauldenton:said by lugnut :Silver's up about 25% since I first posted in that thread. that would be 23rd nov 2010 afaict? » Re: Goldthat days silver price $27.55 todays $34.33...... Btw, if you're going to be so anal as to post market closings on the exact dates, then post the market ranges for that day as well as the market range yesterday though the week's range would probably be fairer. So yeah, more or less an $8 jump on a $27 commodity amounts to ABOUT a 25% increase which is what I posted so what's yer point? |
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| said by lugnut :said by pauldenton:said by lugnut :Silver's up about 25% since I first posted in that thread. that would be 23rd nov 2010 afaict? » Re: Goldthat days silver price $27.55 todays $34.33...... Btw, if you're going to be so anal as to post market closings on the exact dates, then post the market ranges for that day as well as the market range yesterday though the week's range would probably be fairer. So yeah, more or less an $8 jump on a $27 commodity amounts to ABOUT a 25% increase which is what I posted so what's yer point? just attempting to
a) clarify the time frame we are discussing, since as you choose to post anonymously one cannot readily search your past posts, or assume that either your past posts are under the name "lugnut" or that anyone previously posting as anonymously as "lugnut" is also you
b) confirm that that is "the Gold thread" you mean, since you didn't link to it
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| Fair enough. My apologies then for any bones of contention I may have put forth. |
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| reply to lugnut
said by lugnut :Silver is the poor man's gold. It's not only useful industrially but also still holds value as an investment and generally pretty much tracks the price of gold. err - it doesn't "pretty much track the price of gold" - that's why you have enjoyed a circa 25% gain (before costs) in your physical silver whereas over the same period physical gold would have returned you only a fraction of that
that days gold price $1,377.50
todays $1415.90
only just under 2.8% up 
and for good measure
that days Platinum price $1,654.00
todays $1825
circa 10.3% up
that days Palladium price $690.00
todays $813
circa 17.8% up
or, if one considers alternatives to commodities:
FNMA closing price that day $0.35
FNMA closing price today $0.49
40% up
{of course one has to deal OTC to buy/sell this... }
or
GE closing price that day $15.76
GE closing price today $20.75
31.66% up {not including the dividend income....}
.
.
or for the follower of Rothschild's maxim - how about the 2 other companies in the "BP oil spill"...... 
HAL closing price that day $36.46
HAL closing price today $47.44
30.1% up {not including the dividend income....}
RIG {transocean} closing price that day $66.3
RIG closing price today $85.35
28.7% up
said by lugnut :I'm basing my prediction on the economy going to shit, inflation running rampant and $2000 an ounce gold by the end of this year.
hmm - actually rampant inflation would be quite good for some parts of the economy... it's an ill wind...
said by lugnut :BTW, even though silver has lost the photographic market in film, it has more than made up the slack in its use in CD and DVD manufacture.
no it hasn't - that only uses a fraction of the huge amount the photographic market used to consume....
here's the supply and demand link i posted in the "gold thread" again
»www.silverinstitute.org/supply_demand.php |
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| All right then, if you have all the answers what's your explanation for a 25% jump in the last quarter or so and a 100% jump in the last year or so?
All I know is I've been right on track so far this past year with silver.
As for all the stocks you've mentioned, if you'd been holding them prior to the Greek Financial Crisis you'd barely be treading water ATM  |
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| said by lugnut :All right then, if you have all the answers i certainly don't...
said by lugnut :what's your explanation for a 25% jump in the last quarter or so and a 100% jump in the last year or so? my point is that it certainly is certainly not "following the gold price up" - one should consider it on it's own fundamentals
{in which there are several potential advantages over gold:
i) as i posted in the earlier thread, silver (unlike gold) is an industrial metal whose demand naturally increases in a booming (world) economy....
ii) most of it's industrial uses consume it, and recycling it from the waste isn't yet commericailly viable, unlike gold from mobiles etc.
iii) a lower proportion goes to the readily-scrappable-if-the-price-is-right jewellery/plate....
iv) it's harder to prospect for silver alone (much of it is found as a by-product of other mining.....)
etc.}
gold demand breakdown is here
in 2010
54% of gold demand was jewellery {and that's way down on the norm al 80ish%, as the high price makes people buy less gold jewellery....}
35% of gold demand was investment
11% of gold demand was industrial
»www.gold.org/assets/images/conte···pply.gif
for silver it's more like
45% industrial
17.7% jewelry
10.5% photography (and falling)
8% coins
6.5% silverware
etc
{only about twice the physical quantity of silver is used in jewellery as gold....}
said by lugnut :All I know is I've been right on track so far this past year with silver.
and one might have done well in many other industrial metals recently too.....
jan 2009
silver $11.399/oz
gold $858.69/oz
copper $3,260.36/tonne
todays copper price $9280/tonne
yesterdays prices
gold $1415.90/oz
64.9% gain
silver $34.33/oz
201% gain
copper
184.6% gain
still looking good for silver...... but beaten handsdown by companies that supply it:
SLW closing price end of jan 2009 6.53
SLW closing price yesterday 43.72
569.5% gain
said by lugnut :As for all the stocks you've mentioned, if you'd been holding them prior to the Greek Financial Crisis you'd barely be treading water ATM
not sure what date one should apply as "prior to the Greek Financial Crisis" but certainly for GE the first (single) day when the price as at about the same level as today i can find is 4th nov 2008 (close at 20.77) {you'd still be ahead thanks to GE's dividends.....}
but we are not really discussing long term investments here, just short term "punts" one might have made in november 2010 instead of Ag..... |
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| reply to lugnut
said by lugnut :Well the system told me the Gold thread was too old for an anon to reply to so I guess I can followup here.
Silver's up about 25% since I first posted in that thread. How have all you guys been doin?
BTW, it strikes me that silver and gold's a good hedge to be holding right now against the steadily devaluating US$.
Anyone else have any thoughts? I was being conservative in predicting $50 an ounce silver within 5 years but now I think we could see it by the end of this year or early next.
I'm holding onto my gold and silver as I see both rising in the future. Also, my gold mining stocks are rising and I'm holding onto them.
Here's a video to back up your notion about silver, »www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1···IM317/PR. It's rather lengthy and the part about silver outperforming gold comes late into the video. The people are trying to sell you books but I found their info is spot on. They predict gold to go to $5000 an ounce and silver to be 1/16th the price of gold.
You should sign up and join us registered users as your posts are well thought out and meaningful. |
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| I watched the video in its entirety and then did some googling on Stansberrry Research. While I agree in principle with most of what he laid out as a general economic forecast for the US in the coming years, I also find myself agreeing somewhat with his detractors in that he is prone to hyperbole and scare tactics to sell his newsletters. Also the SEC fines for pump and dump practices of his newsletters seriously undermine his credibility but realistically even a Pr#@k can be right sometimes
From what I can see, if you take his advice with a grain of salt and don't expect his crazy numbers to pay off in full you can still earn a nice profit.
Even he has the good sense to mention that investing is fraught with risk and to me risk management is something that I take very seriously indeed.
Upshot is that I didn't bite for his newsletter, since being in Canada and not playing the US market his picks would be of little use to me anyway.
Like you said though, he makes a good argument for silver, something which I came to realize on my own January of last year, and while I seriously doubt $5000 an oz. gold within 3 years, I can very much foresee a serious currency crisis hitting the US within the next year or two. How that plays out will depend on what genius measures the boys at the Fed and the Treasury and IMF come up with and I'll play a wait and see game when the sh*t finally does hit the fan.
The stuff about the IMF proposing a global currency came as news to me, but was interesting as well, though I seriously cannot see the world agreeing to such a thing in the wake of recent events in Europe and the future of the Euro as it now rests.
The move away from US$ as a global currency is something that is still very much a possibility right now though. Personally, as a Canadian investor I won't touch the stuff. The most likely resolution of that pickle however will be the adoption of a basket of international currencies as OPEC has already proposed and I could easily see China, Russia, the EU and the Arab Nations jumping on that bandwagon again if the debt crises at the state and federal levels in the US are not quickly resolved.
Anyway, in a nutshell, I think the man is fundamentally correct on many points, but is guilty of overselling his schtick in an attempt to sell more newsletters.
And my current position on silver currently remains strong hold and moderate buy. The current world situation is vastly different from the Hunt brother's attempt to corner the market in the 80's and I, like most thinking consumers, realize that the federal stats on core inflation are total bullsh*t these days.
Stansberry makes a solid point in predicting that a financial collapse will spur silver demand by re-monetizing it and only strengthens my resolve to hang onto the shiny stuff until all this drama plays itself out on the world stage.
Who knows? Perhaps in the next couple of years America will come to its senses and realize that a consumer-based, post-industrial society simply cannot continue without paying world percentages in taxes in order to pay off its debts? Seriously, I think America's biggest impediment to digging itself out of this mess is the voting public themselves. The tea party types really are their own worst enemy in this situation. |
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| reply to pauldenton
said by pauldenton:said by lugnut :All right then, if you have all the answers i certainly don't... The way you come off makes it appear as though you have all the answers. If that's not your intent then try to communicate differently or get your point across in a manner that doesn't make you the absolute divinity authority on the subject. You come across the same in most of your posts on the forums here.
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"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett |
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horsemouthPlease Clarify My CSPPremium
join:2002-03-13
canada | reply to pauldenton
The thing with PM is that you can buy and sell them anomalously they are great insurance for Bankruptcy Divorce and the Tax man.
OT I enjoy your posts...You do come across oafishly but that is more than offset with the research and time that you put in.
Thank you for your time! |
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horsemouthPlease Clarify My CSPPremium
join:2002-03-13
canada | reply to lugnut
I pulled the trigger a US$36.6 Lol... if the back of my napkin math is right my tax bill is about the same as the price I paid for the silver.
PS I have extra tool points that I will give you If you want to become a member. |
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| IMHO ya sold out too cheap. I'm not even planning to reassess my situation until it hits $50.
As for the toolpoints, thanks but no thanks. I think we all leave too many footprints on da WEEB as it is... |
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horsemouthPlease Clarify My CSPPremium
join:2002-03-13
canada | said by lugnut :IMHO ya sold out too cheap. I'm not even planning to reassess my situation until it hits $50.
As for the toolpoints, thanks but no thanks. I think we all leave too many footprints on da WEEB as it is...
I didn't sell just flipped paper for bars. I also pan about 1oz per week Pay tax on that also The gov loves me |
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