 KrisnatharokCaveat EmptorPremium join:2009-02-11 Earth Orbit kudos:3 Reviews:
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| Toyota Halts All Production in Japan »www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/···20110314
(Reuters) - Toyota Motor Co said on Monday that it plans to suspend all production in Japan at least until March 16 following Friday's massive earthquake in northeastern Japan.
The automaker said that the planned production halt from March 14 to March 16 would reduce output by 40,000 vehicles. I wonder how much of an impact this will have on American/European automakers? Two days of production might not make that much of an impact globally. -- Will WWIII start today? |
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 pandoraPremium join:2001-06-01 Outland kudos:1 Reviews:
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| I think Japan's problems will affect us in many ways. Aside from vehicles, there are many products or large sub-assemblies of products produced in Japan.
Also Japan may migrate from Nuclear to fossil fuel, or at least replace the existing reactors they have with fossil fuel replacements. This may take time, and will also add to the cost of fossil fuels depending on what they pick.
I suspect everything from DVD players, smart phones to LCD's will either have shortages or price jumps due to the infrastructure impairments experienced by Japan. -- "People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use." |
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 SnakeoilIgnore Button. The coward's feature.Premium join:2000-08-05 Mentor, OH kudos:1 Reviews:
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| reply to Krisnatharok Also consider the Nintendo 3ds, that was supposed to be released soon. What impact will this have on it?
Same with animation studios. For some reason American animated programs are drawn in Asian studios. The voices are done, here, but the actual animation is done some where in Asia. Hence American Dad, may not be all that American  But you also have some hollywood animated movies that may have been in the process, their production schedules will have to change. -- To All Real Dads. For All Real Moms Every Real Service. |
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 OmegaDisplaced OhioanPremium join:2002-07-30 Cheyenne, WY | reply to Krisnatharok As I said in the other thread, many Honda's and Toyota's that are for sale in the US are manufactured somewhere in North America. So while this will impact the automaker, it will only impact it based on vehicles that are produced in Japan.
Will the companies take a hit? Yes. Will it impact car sales globally? Doubtful. -- What smells like blue? |
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 | And as I replied in that same other thread, critical sub assemblies like the drive train are still sourced from Japan creating a bottleneck that will grind overseas production to a halt. |
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 pandoraPremium join:2001-06-01 Outland kudos:1 Reviews:
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| reply to Omega Lugnut is correct, many sub assemblies for Toyota and other Japanese cars made in the U.S. come from Japan. With JIT, it is likely the U.S. plants will be idled at some point.
Japan will cease to export a lot of stuff for a while, as it must meet domestic consumption needs. It may also import refined oil as several of it's largest refineries are severely damaged. The U.S. may sell more food, and even provide some needed equipment into the near future.
While the balance of trade issue with Japan may mitigate for a short while, it will also cause higher prices and or shortages of stuff we thought wasn't limited (LCD and plasma sets come to mind as do DVD players). -- "People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use." |
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 | I'm thinking this is going to put the kibosh on Japanese auto manufacturing for the next fiscal year at the very least.
Suddenly Ford Motor and even GM are starting to look attractive to me. Lord knows they could barely compete on a level playing field, but when your opponents are walking around in full body casts and crutches it doesn't take a genius to see how to play the smart money  |
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 redxiiPremium,Mod join:2001-02-26 Sherwood, MI Reviews:
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| reply to pandora said by pandora:Also Japan may migrate from Nuclear to fossil fuel, or at least replace the existing reactors they have with fossil fuel replacements. How do you figure this? -- Moe, I need your advice
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 | reply to pandora said by pandora:I think Japan's problems will affect us in many ways. Aside from vehicles, there are many products or large sub-assemblies of products produced in Japan.
Also Japan may migrate from Nuclear to fossil fuel, or at least replace the existing reactors they have with fossil fuel replacements. This may take time, and will also add to the cost of fossil fuels depending on what they pick.
I suspect everything from DVD players, smart phones to LCD's will either have shortages or price jumps due to the infrastructure impairments experienced by Japan. I doubt they will change to fossil fuels on the basis of a 60 y/o reactor design failing after such a major event.
Most Japanese "manufacturer" no longer makes anything in Japan, most of my Sony stuff is out of China. |
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 r81984Fair and BalancedPremium join:2001-11-14 Katy, TX Reviews:
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| reply to lugnut said by lugnut :I'm thinking this is going to put the kibosh on Japanese auto manufacturing for the next fiscal year at the very least.
Suddenly Ford Motor and even GM are starting to look attractive to me. Lord knows they could barely compete on a level playing field, but when your opponents are walking around in full body casts and crutches it doesn't take a genius to see how to play the smart money  American Made Index 1. Toyota Camry (80% domestic-parts content) 2. Honda Accord 3. Ford Escape 4. Ford Focus 5. Chevy Malibu 6. Honda Odyssey 7. Dodge Ram 1500 (Quad cab and crew cab only) 8. Toyota Tundra 9. Jeep Wrangler 10. Toyota Sienna
Here is overall for all their cars sold. Weighted for sales, heres how the big players measure up in domestic-parts content:
GM: 69% Ford Motor Co.: 64% Chrysler Corp.: 60% Honda/Acura: 58% Toyota/Lexus/Scion: 44% Nissan/Infiniti: 31% Mitsubishi: 25% Subaru: 20% Mercedes-Benz: 16% Suzuki: 12% Mazda: 11% Volkswagen/Audi: 9% BMW/Mini: 5% Jaguar/Land Rover: 3% Porsche: 3% -- Your behavior is inconsistent with your desire to be treated like everyone else. |
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 | You can't really infer anything meaningful from those figures except to assume that the Japanese producers probably get their foreign parts from Japan.
The American big three I do know get an awful lot of parts from Canadian subsidiaries.
Then I'd assume that perhaps 10% or so of domestic car parts these days come from China (everything else does)
But without seeing a specific breakdown of who's sourcing from whom I'd be leery to bet the farm on those numbers.
Also. bear in mind that Ford has partnerships with Mazda, GM with Toyota and Chrysler with Mitsubishi so some of that foreign parts breakdown sums up with imported finished units.
Actually my biggest worry right now is the possibility of my Honda Accord breaking down sometime in the next year and me waiting 6 months for a part to show up.  |
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 r81984Fair and BalancedPremium join:2001-11-14 Katy, TX Reviews:
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| Well they count Canada as part of domestic parts content for some strange reason. So even GM, Ford, Chrysler are not getting alot of their parts from US/Canada.
Its hard to find real numbers beyond the "domestic parts content" which is USA/Canada parts.
With your Accord (75% domestic parts) you are better off than any GM or Ford in getting parts even with the crisis in Japan. Also its an accord, why are you so worried about it breaking down? -- Your behavior is inconsistent with your desire to be treated like everyone else. |
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 | What about Mexico? Do they count all three NAFTA members as domestic?
As for my Accord, it's 16 years old and still low miles and beautiful shape. Even so, every once in a while every couple of years or so something falls off and has to be replaced  |
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 r81984Fair and BalancedPremium join:2001-11-14 Katy, TX Reviews:
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| 16 years old? Toyota does not make parts for that anymore, all aftermarket or junk yards. Even if you bought them through a dealer they are buying from aftermarket unless they have a warehouse of old stock somewhere.
Everything I read only counts Canada and US as domestic. It does not count mexico.
Its part of the American Automobile Labeling Act (AALA) of 1992. It counts Canada and US as domestic. -- Your behavior is inconsistent with your desire to be treated like everyone else. |
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 pandoraPremium join:2001-06-01 Outland kudos:1 Reviews:
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| reply to redxii said by redxii:said by pandora:Also Japan may migrate from Nuclear to fossil fuel, or at least replace the existing reactors they have with fossil fuel replacements. How do you figure this? I believe 6 of their reactors have failed and 3 have partially melted down and or had a significant explosion. One reactor has a crack in it's containment structure. Radiation is being released, and may contaminate more of Japan than the atomic bombs of WW II did.
Japan will need reliable electricity and will have radioactive power plants for some time. It will need to build new power plants probably while the old nuclear plants are still in danger of meltdown. I doubt while in danger of meltdown Japan will build any new nuclear plants. The fastest, lowest cost and safest solution for Japan will be fossil fuel plants.
I believe China opens close to one new coal electrical plant a week. It is possible Japan could work out an agreement with China for several cookie cutter plants to get their electrical grid stabilized asap. -- "People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use." |
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 pandoraPremium join:2001-06-01 Outland kudos:1 Reviews:
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| reply to cmaenginsb said by cmaenginsb:said by pandora:I think Japan's problems will affect us in many ways. Aside from vehicles, there are many products or large sub-assemblies of products produced in Japan.
Also Japan may migrate from Nuclear to fossil fuel, or at least replace the existing reactors they have with fossil fuel replacements. This may take time, and will also add to the cost of fossil fuels depending on what they pick.
I suspect everything from DVD players, smart phones to LCD's will either have shortages or price jumps due to the infrastructure impairments experienced by Japan. I doubt they will change to fossil fuels on the basis of a 60 y/o reactor design failing after such a major event. Most Japanese "manufacturer" no longer makes anything in Japan, most of my Sony stuff is out of China. I guess you have a better grasp of the situation than I do.
»www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/···20110314
Japan is likely to turn to oil -- mainly low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) or low-sulphur crudes such as Indonesia's Duri -- as replacement power-generation fuel in the wake of a massive earthquake that closed two of its nuclear plants.
Barclays Capital estimates that replacing the lost power-generation capacity will require the equivalent of 204,000 barrels of oil per day (or about 30,000 tones), similar to a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC)-load of low-sulphur cargoes every eight days.
While Japan would also turn to other power-generation fuels such as coal or liquefied natural gas (LNG), fossil fuel has been the most common substitute in the past, when outages occur at its nuclear plants.
"Right now, it's not clear how much fuel oil they are going to buy, but it is quite certain that they will, and in large volumes. As of now, they have not come out to look for any low-sulphur fuel as yet," said a Singapore-based Japanese trader. -- "People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use." |
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 OmegaDisplaced OhioanPremium join:2002-07-30 Cheyenne, WY | That article just talks about how Japan is going to make up for its power loss in the short term. I don't think they have decided about long term power generation. -- What smells like blue? |
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 pandoraPremium join:2001-06-01 Outland kudos:1 Reviews:
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| said by Omega:That article just talks about how Japan is going to make up for its power loss in the short term. I don't think they have decided about long term power generation. At this point, a portion of Japan is self nuked. It may or may not become as bad or worse than Chernobyl. I don't think anyone would build new nuclear power plants while current plants are in danger of exploding. Though perhaps the Japanese think differently as a culture than I do as an individual. -- "People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use." |
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 redxiiPremium,Mod join:2001-02-26 Sherwood, MI Reviews:
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| reply to pandora Their NG tanks went up in flames as well. Their diesel generators were flooded. Lot of good them fossil fuels did.
Keywords the article you quoted "replace.. when.. if..."
I think the blame on the Nuclear Bogeyman is misplaced. -- Moe, I need your advice
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 pandoraPremium join:2001-06-01 Outland kudos:1 Reviews:
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| said by redxii:Their NG tanks went up in flames as well. Their diesel generators were flooded. Lot of good them fossil fuels did.
Keywords the article you quoted "replace.. when.. if..."
I think the blame on the Nuclear Bogeyman is misplaced. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't know that radiation has spread as a result of flooded diesel generators. I don't know if iodine had to be distributed to protect from cancer due to diesel generators being flooded.
I don't know if hundreds of square miles of Japan were irradiated by diesel, or if Lufthansa is scanning for exposure to oil on flights from Japan. I don't know if U.S. navy airmen were contaminated with diesel radiation when flying near the burning reactors, or if the U.S. relief fleet was moved away from the shore to keep it safe from diesel emissions. -- "People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for the freedom of thought which they seldom use." |
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