Technical > Weather > Tropical Storm Emily

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Humm the East Coast looks nice to me!

With the Don out of the picture, a look back to the East shows Invest 91 who is expected to be a tropical storm in 24 hours and Hurricane some time Monday.

Right now it looks like 91 has it's eyes on the East Coast. Obviously it's way too soon to know, but this will be one to watch.

to forum · permalink · 2011-07-30 03:01:54 ·

Noah Vail
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Re: Invest 91 (Emily?)

said by SmokChsr:

Right now it looks like 91 has it's eyes on the East Coast. Obviously it's way too soon to know, but this will be one to watch.

The thinking is they'll name it by this time tomorrow.

By the weekend, it looks to brush off FL's E coast before a high pushes it back out to sea.

So far, it's another light year for us in FL.

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to forum · permalink · 2011-07-31 13:41:17 ·

SmokChsr
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99.44% chance

Well the NHC actually says "Near 100% Chance" Yep so far this one looks on track to be interesting late next week for the East coast.
Still it remains a long way out there, just have to wait and see.

to forum · permalink · 2011-07-31 18:06:36 ·

SmokChsr
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Re: Invest 91 (Emily?)

It's now been dropped to a 90% chance. I'm seeing some cyclonic rotation trying to develop at 15N 55W, If that continues, it will speed things along.

to forum · permalink · 2011-08-01 00:53:22 ·

Hayward
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reply to SmokChsr
You're almost as bad as the Weather Channel!!!!

Note the !!! marks not the thread ???? marks couldn't wait until even NEAR certain?

What is the point of barely possibles?

Just something to waste time on?

And it not like ANYTHING significant has happened yet and another of little potential.

OK maybe proved wrong I say not even worth watching and for those accustomed not worth worry about. Particularly this early.Its going to fizzel or head for the mid Atlantic

Now you want to talk about something interesting what is your forecast. I find it interesting that since 2005, global warming and all that.... yet southern and north central has seen historically strong weather since then....blizzards, floods and tornadoes maybe its just gotten to damn hot for hurricanes and water and air about the same temps so no real engine, but is on the mainland now.

And then again hot and humid in Key West have people coming from NYC, DC, Boston, and Chicago hot as it is feels much better than there.

And a temperature differential is what takes to fuel a hurricane.... so unless we see cool air that survives over hot water (the differential difference needed for convection).... not betting on this being a big season....

But might still be unusual summer tornadoes up north (meaning even the SE) relative to KW

Things are definetly changing, vs 2005 saying we were just in the middle of a new upswing, and yet has so far ended. And unusually severe weather north at times of year normally aren't.

And I don't mean to say global warming is striking big time but given historically patterns are shifting significantly and rapidly vs the historical cycles.

And yes i am knocking on wood but I after 17 years and many storms of living here think I'm right. We will see.

Now I was going to go farther on this season pattern but knocking on wood only goes so far.... Agqain we will see.... if there are strong hurricanes this year still betting on north. (Sorry Carolinas or up)

Hey and even if I am wrong... even with unexpected Katrina... still and an infant rare even directly hit rarew we see more that a two.... Wilma being they exception first to flood KW in 50 years because it passed w-e and long after storm we got the surge back wah of course at high tide... but thanks to Flageres railroad now highway... few places ouut to Ocean... so jkust sloshed back down FL Bay once storm hit mainland.... reallly no wiond when we were flodded we thought it was over.
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to forum · permalink · 2011-08-01 06:19:18 ·

SmokChsr
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily

TS Emily

As of 7 PM Emily was named. Current guidance has it over quite a bit of land. Also probably keep it as a tropical storm for the most part. Still we should be aware of it. Now is as good a time as any to do your seasonal storm preps. If you don't need them for Emily, you'll have your supplies for what ever comes next.

to forum · permalink · 2011-08-01 21:52:52 ·

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It warrants watching ... wouldn't surprise me to see a tighter turn to the north towards the carolinas.

to forum · permalink · 2011-08-01 22:37:55 ·

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Here's a little more turn to the right, and just a tropical storm.

to forum · permalink · 2011-08-02 07:21:25 ·

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More potential development behind Emily.

Maybe this year won't be so quiet for Florida, after all.

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to forum · permalink · 2011-08-02 07:24:29 ·

squirrel83
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Bring it ON! I am ready!

to forum · permalink · 2011-08-02 22:34:26 ·

SmokChsr
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Getting organized

Looking at the Satellite view this morning, Emily seems to be getting well organized. It also appears that she is moving to the LEFT (or South) of the projected track. If this movement continues it will really change the projections.
5AM EDST 08/03/11 16.5N 68.1W 50 1003 Tropical Storm

to forum · permalink · 2011-08-03 06:08:26 ·

SmokChsr
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Re: Invest 91 (Emily?)

said by Noah Vail:

So far, it's another light year for us in FL.

Noah, just curious how long have you been in Florida?
Those of us that are natives, know better than to make a statement like that in July! Just so you know it's typical to have nothing going on in July. Most years things don't even get interesting until mid August. Then we don't ever mutter anything resembling the Q word until mid November.

to forum · permalink · 2011-08-03 21:47:06 ·

SmokChsr
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Re: Tropical Storm Emily

Now for the storm, she has been side stepping South, North, and now back to the South again. It's likely to be another 12-24 hours before Emily lets us know where she's going for sure. Still looks to be left of the official track to me.

to forum · permalink · 2011-08-03 21:53:47 ·

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Emily, smile for the Camera Emily

NASA has prettier sat pics than NOAA.
Here you can see a mostly uncovered but well defined low level circulation.

to forum · permalink · 2011-08-03 23:32:49 ·

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Re: Invest 91 (Emily?)

said by SmokChsr:

said by Noah Vail:

So far, it's another light year for us in FL.

I'm in West Central FL. My county hasn't had a hurricane landfall here since 1921.

I did seen a hurricane tear up my home town, however - in Virginia.

NV
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to forum · permalink · 2011-08-04 00:25:45 ·

SmokChsr
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Former Tropical Storm Emily

Emily, has committed suicide on the Dominican Republic. For now she is dead... That's not to say she won't be resurrected in the next day or so.

to forum · permalink · 2011-08-04 21:36:49 ·

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said by SmokChsr:

Emily, has committed suicide on the Dominican Republic. For now she is dead... That's not to say she won't be resurrected in the next day or so.

Does Emily's ghost still have a track?

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to forum · permalink · 2011-08-04 21:41:21 ·

SmokChsr
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said by Noah Vail:

Does Emily's ghost still have a track?

Yes, it does, but it means nothing. Emily sort of split into 3 parts convection North of the island, Convection South of the island, and a low level rotation over the island.

If she reforms, you don't know from which area she will regroup on. Each of the areas would have very different tracks. South would likely go into the Gulf or die on Cuba. Island, might try to follow the last projections. North convection might take off North East into the Atlantic.

The weaker the storm is the harder it is to predict what it's going to do. As Emily is now you really have very little to go on.

to forum · permalink · 2011-08-04 22:02:58 ·

Hayward
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Fizzled even sooner than I though it would.

Though that was very optemistic saying (NWS not you) it might reach hurricane up around the Carolinas.
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to forum · permalink · 2011-08-05 01:03:20 ·

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