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SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
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Saint Augustine, FL
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Tropical Storm Maria

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Well Maria almost had to have a sex change operation. A little slower getting her act together and she would have been Nate. So yes she's out there, but coming this way quickly! Currently she has a forward speed of 20MPH.

Right now the models are projecting a turn off the coast with no problems on the mainland. We'll have to wait and see if that holds up over the next few days.

By the way, what was it that they call the wind?


PoloDude
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join:2006-03-29
Northport, NY
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And they called the wind Maria. Boo! Getting a bit worried here as we are flying into Turks Caicos on Monday afternoon.



Hayward
K A R - 1 2 0 C
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join:2000-07-13
Key West, FL
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1 edit

said by PoloDude:

And they called the wind Maria. Boo! Getting a bit worried here as we are flying into Turks Caicos on Monday afternoon.

Hey we are now the statistical day of PEAK hurricane season 9/10, slowly downhill from here. Though in recent history KW has been most hit by late Oct storms, particularly Georges and Wilma

Just what were you expecting for your discount price at PEAK threat?.
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)


SmokChsr
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1 edit

reply to SmokChsr

Click for full size
Note East/West gap in convection
Maria is looking very ill this morning. The NHC feels like they are being generous to allow her to hang on to her tropical storm status. They do expect her to make a recovery, and possibly eventually upgrade to hurricane status in the next three days.

With Maria this weak, they can not really determine her path or position. Over night on satellite imagery it appeard as if Maria was breaking into two seperate fields of convection. The convection is heavy enough that I can't see a lowlevel circulation. In earleir Sat pictures it look to me that the center was well North of where the NHC was placing it.

Just be weary of this one until she gets reformulated, while unlikely, she could reform and shift paths a fair amount.

Polo, it's still to close to call for your trip, but I would expect rain on your arrival.


SmokChsr
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reply to SmokChsr
After loosing her tropical storm status for a bit Maria has it back and is looking much more impressive this morning. If she goes where the computers think she headed, she should leave all the islands and other land alone (Polo this is good news for you), except for perhaps Canada. She's expected to button hook Bermuda pretty much the same as Katia.


Bobby_Peru
Premium
join:2003-06-16

reply to SmokChsr

said by SmokChsr:

Polo, it's still to close to call for your trip, but I would expect rumain on your arrival.

Fixed.


SmokChsr
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said by Bobby_Peru:

said by SmokChsr:

Polo, it's still to close to call for your trip, but I would expect rumain on your arrival.

Fixed.

hehe, Man sorry I misspelled that.. Tragic error.. Glad you got it fixed!


SmokChsr
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reply to SmokChsr
Surprise!!! The computer models didn't anticipate Maria hitting a brick wall out there. She's still about where she was yesterday morning. Her low level circulation location is unknown, so I can only go by the main mass of convection. The NHC is giving her an arbitrary location and speed, but the truth is they don't know. Given this stop. it's anticipated that she will start her turn to the North from this location. This could cause problems for Bermuda.



capecoddah

join:2005-03-18
Yarmouth Port, MA
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reply to SmokChsr
I want a bit of surf.
Katia didn't really deliver.



SmokChsr
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As of now I don't think Maria is going to provide the big waves. While the models are indicating that she will make it to cat 1 status, the NHC is betting that she will remain a tropical storm.

As of this afternoon the center of circulation is exposed West of the convection (20.7N 67.1W). She is in pretty poor health for now. There isn't even any rain showing up on long range radar from San Juan near the center. She may fall apart, and have to reform.



SmokChsr
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reply to SmokChsr
Maria is still just North of Puerto Rico, with an uncertain position again. Radar and Satellite tend to indicate that Marie might even be backing up a bit at about 160 deg. The NHC is saying that she is moving 330Deg at 5 MPH, or about 180 deg different from what I'm seeing.
Time will tell.
PR is getting many squall coming across it.



SmokChsr
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Saint Augustine, FL

reply to SmokChsr
Maria finally got her grove on yesterday and started heading North. This morning she is in high gear, moving North. While she should be West of Bermuda they will be feeling effects from her all day as she passes shortly afternoon.



SmokChsr
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reply to SmokChsr

Hurricane Maria

Well she Finally made it to Hurricane status. As of now she's headed up to Newfoundland at 45 MPH. She will likely make land fall as a strong tropical storm or a very weak Cat 1 Hurricane up there about 2PM today. At 45 MPH she's really moving along.. She did put all of Bermuda under tropical storm conditions as she passed by yesterday.

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