 SmokChsrWho let the magic smoke out?Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
 ·Clearwire Wireless
1 edit | Hurricane Philippe This morning's discussion from the NHC.. Interesting reading.
Philippe is a rare creature. It has an eye feature in both
conventional and microwave satellite data but do not have enough
convection for the subjective Dvorak T-numbers to indicate
hurricane strength. In fact...these estimates yield to lower winds
than earlier today. On the other hand...the UW-CIMSS suggest that
Philippe is a hurricane. Given such uncertainty...the initial
intensity is kept at 55 knots at this time. I would Love to
have a reconnaissance plane to really know the true intensity of
Philippe.
There is an opportunity for Philippe to strengthen some as the shear
relaxes in the next couple of days...and before it becomes attached
to the subtropical westerly flow. The official forecast follows the
guidance trend and makes Phillipe a hurricane in a day or so...but
this forecast continues to be highly uncertain.
Philippe has been moving toward the west-southwest trapped south of a strong subtropical ridge . It appears that it has now begun to
move toward the west or 265 degrees at 9 knots as it reaching the
western edge of the ridge. A large mid-latitude trough with its
associated cold front front is approaching from the west and this
pattern will force Philippe to sharply turn to the northeast or
recurve in about 48 hours. Philippe most likely will become
embedded in the westerlies and begins to interact with the cold
front. These two features are forecast to be very close to each
other by the global models. There is a medium to high confidence in
the sharp turn to the northeast since this is the trend indicated by
most of the track guidance. However...some of the previous GFS runs have Philippe meandering just south of the cold front.
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If the last line happens to occur, the weather guys in Florida will be going nutz!! |
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SmokChsrWho let the magic smoke out?Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL Reviews:
·Clearwire Wireless
| Re: Tropical Storm Philippe It looks like today is decision Day for Philippe. He did start to move North, but I still see some influences that could push him back South. If he does what he's projected to, by tomorrow morning he'll be picking up speed heading NE. If he misbehaves, then I'll have a bunch more to type in the morning. |
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SmokChsrWho let the magic smoke out?Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL Reviews:
·Clearwire Wireless
| reply to SmokChsr
ZigZag Track |
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SmokChsrWho let the magic smoke out?Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL | reply to SmokChsr
Philippe getting shoved NE That mean front that's sitting out there is shoving Philippe out of the playground. He's now made the turn to the NE and unless something drastic happens he's no longer any concern. |
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SmokChsrWho let the magic smoke out?Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL Reviews:
·Clearwire Wireless
| reply to SmokChsr
Hurricane Philippe Taking off
Some times you just can't make up your mind |
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 Hayward K A R - 1 2 0 CPremium
join:2000-07-13
Key West, FL
kudos:1 | Pretty much always the projection..... just decided to slip on his ballet slippers and do some piroettes first 
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»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)
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