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InvalidError

join:2008-02-03
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reply to TSI Marc

Re: Cable companies' Review and Vary of 2011-703

said by TSI Marc:

Besides, at these rates and given that the rates were actually derived from UBB costs converted to peak usage, which is impossible to do

It isn't any more or less impossible than converting 95th to average, 95th to peak or any other similar conversions... ALL such conversions imply empirical/statistical models and the models will change over time. If you have a valid statistical model for a given period, you can covert any figure into any other revenue-neutral figure within that period which may be weeks, months or years depending on how quickly patterns might change.

Regardless of which billing model is considered, there will always be some who will benefit and call it "fair" and others who will get disadvantaged by any given model and complain incessantly about it. No point in arguing about something that has nearly as many "fair" definitions as there are parties involved.

The real battle is the incumbents' total wholesale revenue vs total wholesale costs. Fix the incumbents' wholesale balance sheet, you fix every billing model.


TSI Marc
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No, it's impossible to do what they did. You should read the study CNOC submitted with its R&V. It explains it all pretty well. I can't find the link just off hand.
--
Marc - CEO/TekSavvy



Davesnothere
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said by TSI Marc:

No, it's impossible to do what they did. You should read the study CNOC submitted with its R&V. It explains it all pretty well. I can't find the link just off hand.

 
No, Marc - all it requires is a few rolls of B$ELL's loaded dice (substitute other incumbents' names as applicable), and then put those numbers in place of the ####s in their costing submissions.

Et Voila ! - Unfair rates.

BTW, guess where the dice are made ?


TSI Marc
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Haha. No kidding. Transparency! That's the only real solution.
--
Marc - CEO/TekSavvy



Davesnothere
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said by TSI Marc:

Haha. No kidding. Transparency! That's the only real solution.

 
You mean transparent dice ?

How would THAT help ?


Ott_Cable

@teksavvy.com
reply to TSI Marc

"to retain respect for sausages and laws, one must not watch them in the making." - famous epigram of Otto von Bismarck.


InvalidError

join:2008-02-03
kudos:5
reply to TSI Marc

said by TSI Marc:

No, it's impossible to do what they did.

Unless usage patterns change drastically enough to invalidate models derived from them faster than they can be put to use, it is. Apart from singular events like implementation of off-peak unlimited or other substantial change in service such as incumbent-imposed caps to CBB (ex.: Videotron TPIA - drastic caps changes), I bet TSI's overall traffic continued to grow along generally predictable trends at a predictable and mostly uniform pace. Since Bell's models likely includes all wholesale, patterns they based their conversion on should be more stable than TSI's own.

The models for UBB may be more volatile due to extra variables (pricing may require more frequent adjustments) but it still works. The only difference is medium/long-term rate stability... but with current rates being in on-going disputes, even short-term rates are uncertain.

MaynardKrebs
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reply to TSI Marc

said by TSI Marc:

It's all a big croc.

No wonder the CRTC has trouble following CNOC arguments.

Croc - colloquial for crocodile
Crock - a large vessel, often ceramic, used for holding feces and other substances


TSI Marc
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reply to InvalidError

It's all changing at a very fast rate. What can usage at 4am possibly have anything to do with peak usage? Rate of change per year is anywhere between 30% to 50%... Their DPI boxes are in there messing around with stuff too. Was this done before or after Netflix launched? It's just impossible.
--
Marc - CEO/TekSavvy



TSI Marc
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reply to MaynardKrebs

LOL, yeah that makes a big difference. Although; crodiles or feces, either way you don't want to be there!
--
Marc - CEO/TekSavvy


jfmezei
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reply to TSI Marc

said by TSI Marc:

What can usage at 4am possibly have anything to do with peak usage?

You underestimate "Geek Power"...

Conditioning Geeks to live in the wee hours of the morning to avoid evening peak will result in the peak hours shifting to the wee hours because Geeks are the ones who cause all the congestion with their big Linux ISO downloads.

InvalidError

join:2008-02-03
kudos:5
reply to TSI Marc

said by TSI Marc:

Rate of change per year is anywhere between 30% to 50%...

You are confusing usage patterns with traffic growth.

Patterns are the proportions and timing people do stuff in. My usage can grow even if I maintain the exact same usage patterns year after year simply because web pages are becoming more complex, files are getting bigger, bit rates and resolutions on streaming media are increasing, etc. An increase in volume does not necessarily indicate a change in patterns.

Costs would increase by 30-50%/year regardless of whether you pick UBB or CBB because that growth still follows current patterns unless you artificially break them by introducing stuff like off-peak.


Davesnothere
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reply to jfmezei

said by jfmezei:

You underestimate "Geek Power"...

Conditioning Geeks to live in the wee hours of the morning to avoid evening peak will result in the peak hours shifting to the wee hours because Geeks are the ones who cause all the congestion with their big Linux ISO downloads.

 
Then you mean ANGELO-Power !

What, can you not pronounce HIS name now ?


TSI Marc
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reply to jfmezei

said by jfmezei:

said by TSI Marc:

What can usage at 4am possibly have anything to do with peak usage?

You underestimate "Geek Power"...

Conditioning Geeks to live in the wee hours of the morning to avoid evening peak will result in the peak hours shifting to the wee hours because Geeks are the ones who cause all the congestion with their big Linux ISO downloads.

The Geeks are no longer the problem. I mean, we are giving those incentives to do that, we are not charging for any usage at those hours. It's all the video streaming. People are watching Netflix, youtube and AppleTV and whatever else they want to and they all want to watch it when they want to watch it. Peak network activity is at 10pm-ish. I can see that in the future devices will be able to schedule downloads at off-peak hour times but in general the geeks are more and more not the primary downloaders. There are numerous reports from sandvine, Cisco and the like that say that 60% of all traffic at peak is video streaming. People are not going to stay up until 4am to watch their movies.
--
Marc - CEO/TekSavvy


TSI Marc
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reply to InvalidError

said by InvalidError:

said by TSI Marc:

Rate of change per year is anywhere between 30% to 50%...

You are confusing usage patterns with traffic growth.

Patterns are the proportions and timing people do stuff in. My usage can grow even if I maintain the exact same usage patterns year after year simply because web pages are becoming more complex, files are getting bigger, bit rates and resolutions on streaming media are increasing, etc. An increase in volume does not necessarily indicate a change in patterns.

Costs would increase by 30-50%/year regardless of whether you pick UBB or CBB because that growth still follows current patterns unless you artificially break them by introducing stuff like off-peak.

It's the patters that have changed and consequently the usage also. More people are streaming video at peak time. Web sites are still web sites. It's YouTube, Netflix and AppleTV that has changed they didn't exist 5 years ago. It's not peer to peer that's the big culprit any more. That's a big change in pattern.
--
Marc - CEO/TekSavvy

resa1983
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And of course, since its real-time, ISPs can't touch that traffic. So they really have no choice now but to finally get off their asses and upgrade hardware rather than relying on DPI.



Davesnothere
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said by resa1983:

....So they [incumbent providers] really have no choice now but to finally get off their asses and upgrade hardware rather than relying on DPI.

 
Oh, so is THAT what's been troubling us these past few years at B$ELL and the other incumbents ?

But you're right.

The old 'UP-TO' (whatever speed of service) disclaimer cannot stand any more.

It just will not work under the new order of things.
--

We have only 2 things about which to worry :
(1) That things may never get back to normal
(2) That they already HAVE !
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Or you can still use Canadian Broadband.



Davesnothere
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reply to MaynardKrebs

said by MaynardKrebs:

said by TSI Marc:

It's all a big croc.

No wonder the CRTC has trouble following CNOC arguments.

Croc - colloquial for crocodile
Crock - a large vessel, often ceramic, used for holding feces and other substances

 
'Croc' is also a sound-effect word used in French advertising text to denote CRUNCHY, as in for some snack foods.

And BTW, speaking of food, we were historically familiar with the term 'Crock' as a glazed ceramic pot in which to perform slow cooking, as in 'Crock Pot'.

And WE never shit where we ate.

InvalidError

join:2008-02-03
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reply to Davesnothere

said by Davesnothere:

The old 'UP-TO' (whatever speed of service) disclaimer cannot stand any more.

While they may not be throttling anymore, they can still let congestion run its course and since this can happen in unforeseen circumstances on top of the usual list of reasons, the "up to" will remain.


Davesnothere
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said by InvalidError:

....the "up to" will remain.

 
I expect full well that it WILL remain, but here and now we have even more compelling reasons than ever why it should not, due to today's increasingly widespread and prolific time-sensitive activities such as streamed vids....

InvalidError

join:2008-02-03
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said by Davesnothere:

I expect full well that it WILL remain, but here and now we have even more compelling reasons than ever why it should not, due to today's increasingly widespread and prolific time-sensitive activities such as streamed vids....

You do not need 30Mbps out of your "up to 30Mbps" access to watch a 6Mbps stream from Netflix. If it happens to only perform at 10Mbps at that time, you still have 4Mbps to spare and wouldn't notice if Netflix is the only thing you had going... there is a lot more margin for "upto-ism" on higher speed tiers where people are far less likely to require sustained peak rate.

jfmezei
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Do Canadian ISPs really see some AppleTV/Itunes traffic ? Considering how expensive Itunes is for content, I would think there would be very little of this happening.

Since this traffic is "download" instead of stream, then this would be quite different from Neflix.

And isn't youtube mostly download insted of streaming ? (perhaps not at your max download speed, but definitly faster than streaming speed).

What I would be interested in is how ISPs view downloads (short time at max speed) versus 2 hours of streaming at constant 5mbps.

Which has the most impact in the big picture ? Or are they statistically the same from network load once you have a large enough customer base ?



Davesnothere
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reply to InvalidError

said by InvalidError:

You do not need 30Mbps out of your "up to 30Mbps" access to watch a 6Mbps stream from Netflix....

 
True, in MY current case, and I do not even subscribe to NF.

But just last year, I had only a 5Mb connection, and I do not envy the many who STILL do.

Yes, I know that they can view NF at lower res, but is it fair that they would be forced to do that, just to support the oversubcription ratios of their ISP and/or its upstream provider(s) ?

Bear in mind that I also know what your next response will be.


Davesnothere
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reply to jfmezei

said by jfmezei:

Do Canadian ISPs really see some AppleTV/Itunes traffic ? Considering how expensive Itunes is for content, I would think there would be very little of this happening.

Since this traffic is "download" instead of stream, then this would be quite different from Neflix....

 
So iTV sends the whole file before it begins to play the video ?

(I HAD heard before that iTunes did.)

YouTube gambles that the buffer which they create in your computer can stay ahead of the FlashPlayer delivering the content to your screen, and YMMV on that, IME.
--

We have only 2 things about which to worry :
(1) That things may never get back to normal
(2) That they already HAVE !
-
START Forum »Start Communications
Or you can still use Canadian Broadband.


jfmezei
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If you pause Youtube, it continues to download.

The iTunes product download at fastest possible speed. You might be able to start to play before download is done but it still downloads at full speed instead of streaming it.



TSI Marc
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I use AppleTV at home. It also has Netflix built into it. If I rent a movie it asks if I want to watch it, if yes it starts downloading it as fast as it can. You can now rent 1080p movies on it. Works pretty good. Hard on the network though. There's no option to download late at night so I can watch it tomorrow. As soon as you start watching it you have 48 hours to watch the whole thing. Now that AppleTV is doing 1080p, I'm sure others will follow suit. Blockbuster is said to be working on their online stuff.. Google just started a music store online. CBC also if I'm not mistaken? Basically lots of content is being made available in all sorts of ways and people in general will want it when they generally want to view those contents..l with their families and in general in the evenings. On AppleTV I just noticed this new movie, it's called Detachment with Adrien Brode, it's an advanced viewing, I.e. it's on AppleTV before its out in theaters... That's a pretty big change!
--
Marc - CEO/TekSavvy


jfmezei
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AppleTV may be different because it doesn't have storage.

But if you use Itunes on your computer, it will download its own copy of the movie (with DRM limiting viewing for 48 hours) and you can then watch it on any device, any number of times.



TSI Marc
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Right, of course. With the new iCloud though, you will surely be able to stream it from the cloud on any of your devices...

For what its worth, I just finished watching "A Dangerous Method" and it's now 4am. Hahaha. *shrug*
--
Marc - CEO/TekSavvy


jfmezei
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Click for full size
downloadShaw Comment···inal.pdf 74,438 bytes
MTS
Click for full size
downloadMTS Allstrea···-703.pdf 233,983 bytes
MTS
Click for full size
downloadLetter to Jo···inal.pdf 63,657 bytes
CNOC
Click for full size
downloadBell Part 1 ···imus.pdf 55,400 bytes
Primus
Click for full size
downloadCRTC- 2011-7···tion.pdf 789,769 bytes
Vaxination
OK, I am putting then here even though Bell is not a cable company, It also R&Ved the 703 decision.

jfmezei
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I'll post the Comments on the Rogers R&V later after I got some sleep. Didn't get to file on it.