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SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

2 edits

Sub Tropical Storm Beryl

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Already heading away
Although as of now it looks like this system will rapidly move to the NE and away from the US.. Earlier this afternoon predictions were for a soggy Florida over the weekend. (this would have been a good thing). Looking at the current satellite imagery, the system didn't sit still and spin up as expected and has taken off towards the NE at a high speed. With the current center somewhere near Miami rather than drench Florida with rain, it's very likely that it will pull most of the moisture off the state out into the Atlantic.

Here's the special statement issued earlier this afternoon.

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH AND WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. CURRENTLY...THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


DrStrange
Technically feasible
Premium
join:2001-07-23
West Hartford, CT
kudos:1

Re: Special tropical Statement in the Florida Keys

Looks like it's wetter in the Bahamas.

Better luck next time.



SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Invest 94 Now in the Bahamas

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Spagetti time!
The NHC (actually the NESDIS) has "Upgraded" their floater satellites, so I can't cheat and see if they have tasked a satellite over to this system before they officially post the link.

As of now the system has moved over to the Bahamas. It's hard to see the low level circulation due to fairly decent high level cover. It looks like there might be a center about 100 miles east of Ft Lauderdale. The models indicate that this may not be over for the mainland, although the system is far to weak to have much faith in the models as of now.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Tropical Storm Warnings up!

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Turing around!
At the 11PM update Beryl was named as a Sub Tropical storm. Also a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued along the southeastern
United States coast...from the Volusia/Brevard County line in
northeast Florida northward to Edisto Beach South Carolina.

Location...32.5n 74.8w
about 305 mi...490 km E of Charleston South Carolina
maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h
present movement...N or 10 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/h
minimum central pressure...1001 mb...29.56 inches


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Sub Tropical Storm Beryl Heads for the First Coast.

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Sat image from Early this (sat) morning
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Models are shifting South.
Yep, She's coming my way.. Many here are hoping that this will be a big rain event, unfortunately Beryl thus far doesn't have very much moisture in her. If I had to guess right now, I'd say we'll get about 1" or less.

PS I did a nice update earlier this morning but it seems to have gotten lost.

From the NHC...
at 1100 am EDT...1500 UTC...the center of subtropical storm Beryl
was located near latitude 31.6 north...longitude 76.3 west. Beryl is
moving toward the southwest near 9 mph...15 km/h. This general
motion is forecast to continue through early Sunday...with a turn
toward the west expected late Sunday. On the forecast track the
center of Beryl will be near the coast within the warning area by
late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph...75 km/h...with higher
gusts. A little strengthening is possible during the next day or
so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb...29.56 inches.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Subtropical Storm Beryl 0130

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Might be a bit North of these projections
As of this moment it looks like Beryl may have made the turn to the West a bit earlier than expected and will likely come in North of the projected model paths.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Sunday 5AM stats

summary of 500 am EDT...0900 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...30.5n 78.8w
about 175 mi...280 km se of Savannah Georgia
about 175 mi...280 km E of Jacksonville Florida
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
present movement...WSW or 255 degrees at 10 mph...17 km/h
minimum central pressure...998 mb...29.47 inches



charrog
Life In The Golden Isles
Premium
join:2002-03-10
Brunswick, GA
reply to SmokChsr

Re: Sub Tropical Storm Beryl

Looks like we are going to take a hit here in Brunswick already lost power once while a feeder band was coming through. Just saw upgraded to 65 miles an hour, hopefully it won't get any worse....
--
Pray for our troops!!God Bless the USA!!



Dragasoni
We're All Mad Here
Premium
join:2001-12-14
Palm Bay, FL
reply to SmokChsr

We just got hit with the first squall from TS Beryl down here. Winds are getting gusty and I think it's going to be a nasty night, but it looks like it's going to be a lot worse to our north.

Take care and be safe!

-Dragasoni-



SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

The Barometer is dropping like a rock here in St. Augustine, currently 1008mb. Biggest problem so far has been brush fires started by down power lines. No rain yet here. Now let me go see what this critter is doing.



DrStrange
Technically feasible
Premium
join:2001-07-23
West Hartford, CT
kudos:1

Looks increasingly 'healthy' on radar.

I say even money that it makes landfall as a minimal hurricane.

I hope you folks get at least 5" of rain with as little damage as possible.



SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

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5PM
I wouldn't, go that far. It's really not that healthy. It did get a little boost from the Gulf stream. Keep in mind as it gets closer it will look better on radar. The reason being that in a tropical system most of the precipitation originates at a much lower altitude. In doing so a great deal of it is below long range radar and not seen.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

In St. Augustine it made it down to 999.5mb. Plenty of trees down, winds not too bad, up to about 35 mph.