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SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

1 edit

Tropical Storm Debby

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Spider?
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Octopus mating?
Previous Subject: Invest 96 Confuses models

We'll have to wait and see if this one does much of anything, but if you like to see a nice model spread, I think this one qualifies. It's been playing around out there for a few days. It may know where it wants to go, but it's keeping everyone else guessing.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

Tropical Storm Warnings for the Gulf Expected

I should have said that even though I96, isn't officially anything yet, the NHC is thinking that it may already be a tropical storm that will be upgraded, named, and have Tropical Storm warnings issued along the Gulf Coast as soon as hurricane hunter aircraft investigate it this afternoon.


90115534
Someone is sabotaging me.Finding out who
Premium
join:2001-06-03
Kenner, LA
said by SmokChsr:

I should have said that even though I96, isn't officially anything yet, the NHC is thinking that it may already be a tropical storm that will be upgraded, named, and have Tropical Storm warnings issued along the Gulf Coast as soon as hurricane hunter aircraft investigate it this afternoon.

Yep.

I can't wait to see what it does!


90115534
Someone is sabotaging me.Finding out who
Premium
join:2001-06-03
Kenner, LA
reply to SmokChsr

Re: Invest 96 Confuses models

Looks like it will be upgraded to at least a Tropical Depression next update for sure.


90115534
Someone is sabotaging me.Finding out who
Premium
join:2001-06-03
Kenner, LA
reply to SmokChsr
Tropical Storm Debby!


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Re: Tropical Storm Debby

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What the NHC thinks
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What the Models think
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The ensamble view
The Models are still undecided, NHC seems to think it's heading to Texas, which it may, or may not.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr
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She's got some convection going on!
The NHC still has no idea where Debby is going..

Excerpt from the 5AM NHC discussion..

With infrared imagery the center...although partially exposed...has
become a little more difficult to locate and the fixes from TAFB
and SAB are about 50 miles apart. My best estimate of initial
motion is slowly northward...or 360/3. The track forecast for this
storm is extremely challenging. The synoptic reasoning in previous
advisories was based on a mid-level ridge building to the north of
the tropical cyclone...which would cause Debby to move toward the
northwest Gulf of Mexico coast in several days. That track
scenario was supported by the ECMWF model...which has been the
best-performing guidance over the past few years. However...the
0000 run of that model has shifted substantially to the north and
east of the previous runs. The U.K. Met. Office model has also
shifted significantly to the right. In fact...only the HWRF model
is close to the previous official forecasts...and even it is to the
north of them. Therefore an unusually large rightward adjustment
to the NHC forecast is required...and additional shifts to the
north and east may be necessary in subsequent advisory packages.

Needless to say...this is a low confidence forecast.

... That last line says quite a bit...


pcdebb
RIP lil hurricane
Premium
join:2000-12-03
Brandon, FL
kudos:5
reply to SmokChsr
its just churning and dumping loads of rain. My plants are very happy but I'm not
--
| map your city |


pcdebb
RIP lil hurricane
Premium
join:2000-12-03
Brandon, FL
kudos:5
reply to SmokChsr
and we are currently under a tornado watch


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

When you don't know which way it will go...

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Yea we think it might go somewhere!
Just draw a circle around it! So much for the cone of probabilities.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

1 recommendation

reply to SmokChsr

Re: Tropical Storm Debby

As of this morning the models are still all over the place. Debby has lost most of her convection anywhere near the center. I would not be surprised to Debby just magically reappear in the Atlantic in the next 24 hours. It's happened many times with tropical disturbances where they some how magically move across Florida. Typically they seem to spin down on one side as they are spinning up on the other.

As for here in St. Augustine, I've recorded right at 3" of rain and winds up to 30 MPH.


90115534
Someone is sabotaging me.Finding out who
Premium
join:2001-06-03
Kenner, LA
reply to SmokChsr
Some parts of Fl. has gotten up to 32 inches of rain.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
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join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr
This morning Debby is still spinning in the Gulf, Not much has changed. More rain falling, some areas have gotten way more than they wanted.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
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join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

2 recommendations

reply to SmokChsr
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Debby is now at the Florida coast in the big bend area. Of course the main problem with Debby is Rain. She has been doing her best to end the drought that Florida has been in. She's doing a pretty good at getting North Florida quite wet. I-10 in now closed due to flooding in the Lake City area. Flooding in some areas should go on for around a week after she has finally left the area.

NOTE: each of the 3 Precip images above have a different color scale vs amount of rain.

Bobby_Peru
Premium
join:2003-06-16
said by SmokChsr :

NOTE: each of the 3 Precip images above have a different color scale vs amount of rain.

Who cares about such technical details, when they are really just so awesomely perty, even, sober......


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
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join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

1 recommendation

reply to SmokChsr
Debby is now In the Atlantic.. and moving away.. She wasn't supposed to make it across the state until late tonight, yet she was off the East coast around 3AM this morning. I think she did more of the move I was talking about, and caught the NHC off guard.

This storm has shown that even with all the technology we have, mother nature is still in charge, and doesn't pay any attention to the computers.