dslreports logo
    All Forums Hot Topics Gallery


how-to block ads

Search Topic:
share rss forum feed

Who let the magic smoke out?
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Re: Tropical Storm Debby

Click for full size
She's got some convection going on!
The NHC still has no idea where Debby is going..

Excerpt from the 5AM NHC discussion..

With infrared imagery the center...although partially exposed...has
become a little more difficult to locate and the fixes from TAFB
and SAB are about 50 miles apart. My best estimate of initial
motion is slowly northward...or 360/3. The track forecast for this
storm is extremely challenging. The synoptic reasoning in previous
advisories was based on a mid-level ridge building to the north of
the tropical cyclone...which would cause Debby to move toward the
northwest Gulf of Mexico coast in several days. That track
scenario was supported by the ECMWF model...which has been the
best-performing guidance over the past few years. However...the
0000 run of that model has shifted substantially to the north and
east of the previous runs. The U.K. Met. Office model has also
shifted significantly to the right. In fact...only the HWRF model
is close to the previous official forecasts...and even it is to the
north of them. Therefore an unusually large rightward adjustment
to the NHC forecast is required...and additional shifts to the
north and east may be necessary in subsequent advisory packages.

Needless to say...this is a low confidence forecast.

... That last line says quite a bit...