|reply to leibold |
Re: Why are ISPs deploying IPv6 now?
said by leibold:You're totally right, that you were talking about businesses (especially corp networks).
I had clearly separated businesses
I do think it's worth mentioning that some business will run into problems though. Specifically, CDNs or anyone that has a webpage that is loaded by a lot of users, with a lot of timeouts. Port exhaustion from users hitting behind a CGN will be a real issue.
Another big one will be hosting providers. I see the VPS/cloud market either getting real expensive or going IPv6 only with extra fees for v4.
said by leibold:So fun fact. RIPE is now handing out 5/8 now which is horribly blackholed due to hamachi using 5/8 for internal routing.
RIPE (Europe) and ARIN (North America) were earlier projected to run out this year but may make it until next year.
said by leibold:As you pointed out, this is highly dependent on ISPs. Comcast for example should be fine. I think with size, you should add growth rate. Clearwire, although large, might be in trouble with IPv4 blocks due to growth that should occur with their LTE deployment.
This means that at the time of an RIR running out of IPv4 addresses the ISPs in that region should have still sufficient IPv4 addresses for 6 to 12 month of projected growth.
Btw, ARIN region is 3 months projection now and has been for almost a year.
said by leibold:It should be interesting to see how much the market will tolerate. I think we're going to see higher than $11.25 per address as this was when there was still v4 space available and was just used to bypass the "need rules."
This has already started and the first private IPv4 address sale that was made public (Nortel to Microsoft) put a price of $11.25 per IPv4 address.
Pre-RIR addresses will obviously be the most expensive. RIRs are developing transfer policies which might have stricter rules that would limit cost by requiring certain usage justification etc. Unsure how this will all play out.
said by leibold:Yes. They're on their last /8 which is phase 3 of their allocation rules.
Edit: APNIC is at the last /8 block which means that stricter allocation rules apply. As of today they still have 92% of this last block available for allocation.
However, that triggers a policy where by you can only get one /22 and it must be used for transition technologies.
It will likely remain in this state for years.
Phase 3 == exhaustion and most researchers treat it as such. Unless you're running NAT64 or CGN, you cannot get an allocation.