SmokChsr Who let the magic smoke out? Premium join:2006-03-17 Saint Augustine, FL
Tropical Storm Florence
Now we have Florence as well, not far off the African coast.. All current projections say that Florence will come up and use scare tactics on the middle Atlantic coast, then turn and run away, if she even makes it across the Atlantic. This one is also in the category of know it's out there but don't get excited.
To save me typing I'll past the 5 PM discussion from Forecaster Blake at the NHC.
After looking a little ragged earlier...convection has redeveloped near the center of Florence...which appears to be the start of a central dense overcast pattern. Subjective satellite intensity estimates were 35 kt and 45 kt from SAB and TAFB respectively. Since a trmm microwave pass from earlier today suggested that some primitive inner core features had formed...and both AMSU and ADT data indicate a stronger cyclone...the initial intensity will be bumped up to 45 kt.
The current symmetric outflow pattern with Florence appears favorable for further intensification. However...the system is passing over waters cooler than 26.5c...and is approaching a more stable and dry environment as indicated by eumetsat rgb airmass imagery. The intensity guidance has a wide range of possibilities. The statistical-based tools forecast Florence to be near or above hurricane strength in a day or two...which is contrasted with the weakening forecast by the HWRF/GFDL models. The official forecast is just a bit above the intensity consensus and is higher than the previous one. Given the earlier microwave structure...it is tempting to raise the wind prediction more than what is indicated below...but I have elected to remain conservative on this forecast considering the marginal environment.
The initial motion estimate is a little slower...295/13. A building mid-tropospheric high over the eastern Atlantic Ocean is expected to cause Florence to Bend to a westward heading during the next day or two. However...the global models have a wider spread than earlier today...with the ECMWF and GFS showing little run-to-run consistency. Generally the models that are forecasting a more powerful system...such as the GFS...are causing Florence to turn northwestward around day 4 in response to a weakness in the ridge. A weaker cyclone...as indicated by the ECMWF...would probably just continue moving westward. Since the latest intensity forecast is between these two extremes...the latest NHC forecast is close to the model consensus...just a bit north of the previous forecast in the long range period.