 SmokChsrWho let the magic smoke out?Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
1 edit | Tropical Storm Isaac
Survey Said.. Florida |
NHC 11 PM discussion..
There has been no aerial reconnaissance into Isaac recently...but
the cloud pattern of the storm has not become significantly better
organized over the past few hours. The intensity is held at 35 kt
which is in agreement with a Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB.
Another hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Isaac
at around 0600 UTC.
There is some spread in center fixes...but based on geostationary
and microwave imagery the initial motion remains about the
same...275/16. A well-defined mid-tropospheric ridge to the north
of the tropical cyclone should maintain the westward track for the
next couple of days. Later in the forecast period...global models
depict Isaac nearing a break in the ridge near Florida.
Consequently the forward speed is likely to slow...and the heading
to gradually turn toward the right...in the latter half of the
forecast period. Although the GFS has shifted just a bit to the
north of its previous forecast...overall the track guidance has not
changed much since the previous cycle. The official forecast is
very close to the latest HWRF track and not far from the dynamical
consensus.
Water vapor imagery suggests that east-northeasterly shear is
currently affecting Isaac...but the dynamical guidance predicts a
decrease in shear with upper-level anticyclonic flow over the
tropical cyclone during the next several days. Therefore
strengthening is anticipated...and Isaac could become a hurricane
within the next couple of days. Later on...the intensity forecast
is complicated by how much the core of the system interacts with
the mountainous land masses of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. The
official wind speed forecast is fairly close to the statistical-
dynamical guidance for the first 48 hours and then tries to take
into account the land interaction. Needless to say...there is
considerable uncertainty in the intensity of Isaac in the 3 to 5
day time frame.
Forecast positions and Max winds
init 22/0300z 15.6n 55.6w 35 kt 40 mph
12h 22/1200z 15.8n 58.1w 40 kt 45 mph
24h 23/0000z 16.2n 61.2w 45 kt 50 mph
36h 23/1200z 16.7n 64.3w 55 kt 65 mph
48h 24/0000z 17.1n 67.1w 65 kt 75 mph
72h 25/0000z 18.3n 72.0w 65 kt 75 mph...inland
96h 26/0000z 20.5n 76.0w 70 kt 80 mph...inland
120h 27/0000z 23.0n 79.0w 70 kt 80 mph...over water
$$
forecaster Pasch |
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 Hayward K A R - 1 2 0 CPremium
join:2000-07-13
Key West, FL
kudos:1
4 edits | Looking more and more like its going to hook east...
But watch out Homestead you may be getting your 20th anniversary storm. (Though by all forecasts looking to be far tamer than Andrew was.)
And I know we are supposed to politically hate Cuba but with its eastern mountains spares Key West from a lot of stuff coming from south of it.
One exception that hit Key West was Georges in 1998 which litterally hit the eastern tip of Cuba and glanced into the FL Straits right for us instead of sliding under Cuba, or severely dimished plowing through it for a while. Even before it was a prison why I would not want to be stationed at Gitmo.
In 19 years while many mostly tropical or 1-min2 storms, Georges was near three an the only time I have seen an eye... it really did go right over us...which beat up as we were... Big Pine on the N-S eastern bad side NEVER saw a break for the entire 16 hours. Man htat storm crawled through here.But then made a speedy b-line for the N Gulf coast. Actually was the NO warning they never headed.
After Katrina unexpectedly passed through here (fost time no tourist evac that unexpected) and sat in the So Gulf gatherng stength for a couple of a days, tried to tell people (we are never leaving) to take it unexpectedly serously... this is no girl to play with.
And KW is much the same... evacuating Unlike NO mainland is hard and might be headng right into the storm if coming fro the east... but imminent and over cat 2 most are outta here.
Especiallly after Wilma which was not not actual storm but high tide shallow FL Bay surge backwash when initial surge that just normally sloshed around us made mainland and the water vacuum stopped and also thanks to Henry Finagler's railroad now highway... very few but narrow outlets from shalow Bay to Ocean but to backwash over. Here in KW storm was long over when the flood came.
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 MJimLayAKA FlexBaudPremium
join:2004-10-06
Pensacola, FL
kudos:2 | reply to SmokChsr
Isaac is really starting to remind me of Hurricane Erin of 1995. I was just 11 years old at the time and still remember it like yesterday.... |
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SmokChsrWho let the magic smoke out?Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL | reply to SmokChsr
Looks like it still likes Florida |
Issac is spinning up and should give better indications of his plans in the next day or so.
NWS 5AM Discussion...
An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Isaac this
morning has found a poorly defined inner core with a large area of
light winds around a center...which is similar to what an earlier
NOAA research mission indicated. Radar data from Guadeloupe and San
Juan also indicate a poorly defined inner core convective pattern.
Rather than initialize the center of Isaac well to the south of the
previous track...I have opted to use a blend of the recon fixes...
satellite imagery...data from nearby NOAA buoy 42060...and a 06z
consensus forecast position from the GFS...ECMWF...and UKMET
models. The initial intensity was also decreased to 35 kt based on
data from the recon aircraft and NOAA buoy 42060.
The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/12 kt. The 00z
GFS...ECMWF...and UKMET models did an outstanding job predicting
the recent southwestward jog or reformation of the center of Isaac.
Those same models are also forecasting Isaac to make a sharp jog to
the northwest over the next 12-24 hours...and then steady off on a
general west-northwestward motion through 48 hours. After that...
the global and regional models have come into better agreement on
Isaac moving northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge
that is forecast to develop after 72 hours across Florida and the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF model has continued its eastward
shift over the past 36 hours...and even the latest NOGAPS and
Canadian model runs have shifted well to the west across the
Florida Peninsula are now no longer considered to be outliers. Due
to less spread in the latest NHC model guidance...and the fact that
ECMWF has shifted closer to the previous forecast at days 4 and
5...the official forecast track is just an update of the previous
advisory track...and is close to the dynamical consensus models
tvca and tv15.
Upper-air data from St. Maarten at 00z confirms the dry air in the
mid-levels of the atmosphere between 600 and 300 mb as alluded to
in previous discussions. This layer of very dry air has been
hindering convective development in the northeastern quadrant for
the past 3-4 days. However...the global models are in good
agreement on the dry air mixing out over the next 36 hours and the
inner core becoming quite moist...which should allow for some
steady intensification to occur before Isaac interacts with the
mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. Given the impressive upper-level
outflow pattern that the cyclone has developed...Isaac is still
expected to become a hurricane by 36 hours. After that...however...
the the primary impediment to strengthening will be the interaction
with the land masses of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. How much the
inner core of Isaac is disrupted while over land will determine
just how much re-strengthening will occur once the center moves
back over water after 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast and is in reasonable agreement
with the decay-SHIPS and lgem intensity models.
Forecast positions and Max winds
init 23/0900z 15.3n 64.0w 35 kt 40 mph
12h 23/1800z 16.2n 65.9w 40 kt 45 mph
24h 24/0600z 16.9n 68.4w 50 kt 60 mph
36h 24/1800z 17.8n 71.1w 65 kt 75 mph
48h 25/0600z 19.1n 73.4w 55 kt 65 mph
72h 26/0600z 21.8n 77.4w 60 kt 70 mph...inland
96h 27/0600z 24.4n 80.9w 65 kt 75 mph...over water
120h 28/0600z 27.4n 83.7w 70 kt 80 mph
$$
forecaster Stewart |
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SmokChsrWho let the magic smoke out?Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL | reply to SmokChsr
This morning he's still down there, and still looks to be a bit South of where he's officially plotted. It also looks like he's going a bit slower this morning. The official track did move a bit to the left. But, if he's going slower that too may change. On the current official track he'll be breezing his way through Key West on his way to Pensacola. That's after he spends some difficult time over Cuba.
Bottom line Issac hasn't shown us what he's thinking yet, still a waiting game. |
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MJimLayAKA FlexBaudPremium
join:2004-10-06
Pensacola, FL
kudos:2 | I'm located in Pensacola. I'd honestly be surprised if it's only a cat 1 or 2 when it hits. It seems like this time of year as soon as a storm hits the gulf, it grows overnight. We shall see however. |
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SmokChsrWho let the magic smoke out?Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL | reply to SmokChsr
Hurricane Warning Up for the Keys!
RutRoh! | 
Shooting the gap! |
Hurricane Warning's have just gone up for the Keys, with Warnings and watches on up the East coast, and just a bit up the West side.
From the NHC...
The circulation of Isaac has remained relatively intact after moving
across the southwestern peninsula of Haiti overnight. Before the
center moved inland...hurricane hunter aircraft data suggested that
the cyclone had peak winds of about 55 kt. Assuming the cyclone
weakened a little after encountering the high terrain...the initial
intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion estimate is 320/12. As a mid-level trough lifts
out of the southeastern United States...Isaac will move generally
west-northwestward around the west side of the subtropical ridge
for the next three days or so...and then turn northward late in the
period as a shortwave trough amplifies over the eastern United
States. There has been little change to the NHC forecast this
cycle...and the new track forecast is close to the middle of the
guidance envelope and lies close to the GFS and the tvca
multi-model consensus through 96 hours. By day 5 there is some
disagreement as to whether Isaac will turn northeastward ahead of
the shortwave trough as shown by the GFS...UKMET...and the GFDL or be left behind as shown by the ECMWF and HWRF. The NHC day 5 point is between the two camps showing a slow northward motion.
Given that the cyclone has fared rather well after moving across
Haiti...and that the track forecast has only minimal interaction
with Cuba...the intensity forecast after 12 hours has been adjusted
upward following the trend of the latest intensity guidance. Isaac
is expected to become a hurricane in about 36 hours...with
additional intensification expected as the cyclone moves into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico in a favorable environment. The new NHC
intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus aids through
72 hours and follows a blend of the decay SHIPS and lgem afterward.
The new NHC forecast necessitates the issuance of a Hurricane
Warning for the Florida Keys and a portion of the southwest coast
of Florida at this time.
It is important not to focus on the exact track of Isaac due to the
uncertainties in the forecast and the fact that Isaac has a large
area of tropical storm force winds associated with it.
Read more at »maps.wunderground.com/tropical/a···SAHFo.99
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SmokChsrWho let the magic smoke out?Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL | reply to SmokChsr
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac I think the next Model run will be interesting. I'm expecting a fair shift to the right. Since 5AM Issac has been moving more northerly than predicted from what I can determine on satellite images. If this holds up expect a rightward shift in the projected path. |
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 KeysCaptPremium,Ex-Mod 2002-13
join:2001-07-11
Keys Exile
kudos:1 | The Navy track as of 1325Z still has the path well west of the Florida mainland.
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 DragasoniWe're All Mad HerePremium
join:2001-12-14
Palm Bay, FL | reply to SmokChsr
We've had a few squalls off the coast last night and all morning. Not much rain, but the winds has been gusting over 20 mph since last night. The power briefly went out and came back on with a surge at 9:30 this morning.
I picked up the essentials from Publix last night including an 18 pack of beer 
Stay safe everyone!
-Dragasoni- |
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wthPremium
join:2002-02-20
Iowa City,IA Reviews:
 ·Mediacom
| reply to SmokChsr
May become a cat 2 on Tue am. |
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 wxbossThis is like Deja vu all over again.Premium
join:2005-01-30
Fort Lauderdale, FL
 ·AT&T U-Verse
| reply to MJimLay
said by MJimLay:I'm located in Pensacola. I'd honestly be surprised if it's only a cat 1 or 2 when it hits. It seems like this time of year as soon as a storm hits the gulf, it grows overnight. We shall see however.
Ain't that the truth. I feel sorry for you guys. I lived in P'cola for about 4 years when I was in the Navy back in the early 90's and never saw one storm. Shortly after I moved well East, the bottom fell out!
Take care up there!
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"I do not believe in a fate that falls on men however they act; but I do believe in a fate that falls on them unless they act." --- G. K. Chesterton |
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SmokChsrWho let the magic smoke out?Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL | reply to SmokChsr
As of now Isaac is still very poorly defined. It's definitely going to make some bad weather in the Keys. I'll try to do more on this one in the morning. Just looking at the satellite image it's very difficult to even determine the center of circulation. Even without being well defined there has been a rapid increase in convection in the last few hours. The Cuban radars are off line (several days behind) so they aren't any help, and it's not quite in range of Miami yet. |
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SmokChsrWho let the magic smoke out?Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL | reply to SmokChsr
a bit more organized |
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KeysCaptPremium,Ex-Mod 2002-13
join:2001-07-11
Keys Exile
kudos:1 | I'll tell ya what, about 30 minutes ago I thought Isaac was visiting Fort Lauderdale ... high winds, driving rain and trees bent over with branches in the street.
All the tracks still project it crossing the lower Keys and passing offshore of the west coast, but yeah, we will all get some effect.
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sailorPremium
join:2003-10-21
Long Island
kudos:6 | reply to SmokChsr
It was this week a year ago that Irene caused so much misery and destruction in so many states...such widespread devastating historic flooding that took many by surprise.
I sure hope Isaac doesn't turn out to be as sneaky as Irene was.
Hoping everyone who could be affected by Isaac is taking precautions and remaining alert. |
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 DKSDamn Kidney StonesPremium,ExMod 2002
join:2001-03-22
Owen Sound, ON
kudos:2
 ·Bell Sympatico
| reply to SmokChsr
Another one in the pipeline...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Need-based health care not greed-based health care. |
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SmokChsrWho let the magic smoke out?Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL | reply to SmokChsr
I'm gonna Huff & Puff |
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wxbossThis is like Deja vu all over again.Premium
join:2005-01-30
Fort Lauderdale, FL | reply to SmokChsr
The wind isn't too bad here and the rain isn't too hard. Just a good day to stay inside and relax. |
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 HFB1217The WizardPremium,ExMod 2000-01
join:2000-06-26
Camelot
kudos:2 | reply to SmokChsr
Looks like another one bites the dust for SW Florida we lucked out but I feel sorry for New Orleans.
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*****aka The WIZARD *****A Founding member of Seti BBR Team Starfire*** |
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