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SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

1 edit

Tropical Storm Isaac

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Survey Said.. Florida
I haven't had the time to sit down and look at Isaac, for now for those in Florida, I'd put Isaac in the, Time to make sure everything ready for a bit of a blow category. So go start doing all those things that you were supposed to have had done back in June. Current projections are for a low level Cat 1, of course that could all change. Most likely downward since Isaac will have some difficulty getting to the northern side of Cuba.

NHC 11 PM discussion..

There has been no aerial reconnaissance into Isaac recently...but
the cloud pattern of the storm has not become significantly better
organized over the past few hours. The intensity is held at 35 kt
which is in agreement with a Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB.
Another hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Isaac
at around 0600 UTC.

There is some spread in center fixes...but based on geostationary
and microwave imagery the initial motion remains about the
same...275/16. A well-defined mid-tropospheric ridge to the north
of the tropical cyclone should maintain the westward track for the
next couple of days. Later in the forecast period...global models
depict Isaac nearing a break in the ridge near Florida.
Consequently the forward speed is likely to slow...and the heading
to gradually turn toward the right...in the latter half of the
forecast period. Although the GFS has shifted just a bit to the
north of its previous forecast...overall the track guidance has not
changed much since the previous cycle. The official forecast is
very close to the latest HWRF track and not far from the dynamical
consensus.

Water vapor imagery suggests that east-northeasterly shear is
currently affecting Isaac...but the dynamical guidance predicts a
decrease in shear with upper-level anticyclonic flow over the
tropical cyclone during the next several days. Therefore
strengthening is anticipated...and Isaac could become a hurricane
within the next couple of days. Later on...the intensity forecast
is complicated by how much the core of the system interacts with
the mountainous land masses of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. The
official wind speed forecast is fairly close to the statistical-
dynamical guidance for the first 48 hours and then tries to take
into account the land interaction. Needless to say...there is
considerable uncertainty in the intensity of Isaac in the 3 to 5
day time frame.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 22/0300z 15.6n 55.6w 35 kt 40 mph
12h 22/1200z 15.8n 58.1w 40 kt 45 mph
24h 23/0000z 16.2n 61.2w 45 kt 50 mph
36h 23/1200z 16.7n 64.3w 55 kt 65 mph
48h 24/0000z 17.1n 67.1w 65 kt 75 mph
72h 25/0000z 18.3n 72.0w 65 kt 75 mph...inland
96h 26/0000z 20.5n 76.0w 70 kt 80 mph...inland
120h 27/0000z 23.0n 79.0w 70 kt 80 mph...over water

$$
forecaster Pasch


Hayward
K A R - 1 2 0 C
Premium
join:2000-07-13
Key West, FL
kudos:1

4 edits

Looking more and more like its going to hook east...

But watch out Homestead you may be getting your 20th anniversary storm. (Though by all forecasts looking to be far tamer than Andrew was.)

And I know we are supposed to politically hate Cuba but with its eastern mountains spares Key West from a lot of stuff coming from south of it.

One exception that hit Key West was Georges in 1998 which litterally hit the eastern tip of Cuba and glanced into the FL Straits right for us instead of sliding under Cuba, or severely dimished plowing through it for a while. Even before it was a prison why I would not want to be stationed at Gitmo.

In 19 years while many mostly tropical or 1-min2 storms, Georges was near three an the only time I have seen an eye... it really did go right over us...which beat up as we were... Big Pine on the N-S eastern bad side NEVER saw a break for the entire 16 hours. Man htat storm crawled through here.But then made a speedy b-line for the N Gulf coast. Actually was the NO warning they never headed.

After Katrina unexpectedly passed through here (fost time no tourist evac that unexpected) and sat in the So Gulf gatherng stength for a couple of a days, tried to tell people (we are never leaving) to take it unexpectedly serously... this is no girl to play with.

And KW is much the same... evacuating Unlike NO mainland is hard and might be headng right into the storm if coming fro the east... but imminent and over cat 2 most are outta here.

Especiallly after Wilma which was not not actual storm but high tide shallow FL Bay surge backwash when initial surge that just normally sloshed around us made mainland and the water vacuum stopped and also thanks to Henry Finagler's railroad now highway... very few but narrow outlets from shalow Bay to Ocean but to backwash over. Here in KW storm was long over when the flood came.
--



MineCoast
Premium
join:2004-10-06
127.0.0.1
reply to SmokChsr

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Isaac is really starting to remind me of Hurricane Erin of 1995. I was just 11 years old at the time and still remember it like yesterday....


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Click for full size
Looks like it still likes Florida
Still looking like a cat 1 hit at best, but don't take that to the bank. Isaac is still disorganized and weak. Until the storm gets stronger the computers have a hard time pinning it down. Yesterday afternoon satellite images looked as if Isaac was trying to split into 2 separate storms. As of this writing it looks as if the center is trying to reform to the South side of the projections. If that is the case it could cause a shift to the left .

Issac is spinning up and should give better indications of his plans in the next day or so.

NWS 5AM Discussion...

An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Isaac this
morning has found a poorly defined inner core with a large area of
light winds around a center...which is similar to what an earlier
NOAA research mission indicated. Radar data from Guadeloupe and San
Juan also indicate a poorly defined inner core convective pattern.
Rather than initialize the center of Isaac well to the south of the
previous track...I have opted to use a blend of the recon fixes...
satellite imagery...data from nearby NOAA buoy 42060...and a 06z
consensus forecast position from the GFS...ECMWF...and UKMET
models. The initial intensity was also decreased to 35 kt based on
data from the recon aircraft and NOAA buoy 42060.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/12 kt. The 00z
GFS...ECMWF...and UKMET models did an outstanding job predicting
the recent southwestward jog or reformation of the center of Isaac.
Those same models are also forecasting Isaac to make a sharp jog to
the northwest over the next 12-24 hours...and then steady off on a
general west-northwestward motion through 48 hours. After that...
the global and regional models have come into better agreement on
Isaac moving northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge
that is forecast to develop after 72 hours across Florida and the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF model has continued its eastward
shift over the past 36 hours...and even the latest NOGAPS and
Canadian model runs have shifted well to the west across the
Florida Peninsula are now no longer considered to be outliers. Due
to less spread in the latest NHC model guidance...and the fact that
ECMWF has shifted closer to the previous forecast at days 4 and
5...the official forecast track is just an update of the previous
advisory track...and is close to the dynamical consensus models
tvca and tv15.

Upper-air data from St. Maarten at 00z confirms the dry air in the
mid-levels of the atmosphere between 600 and 300 mb as alluded to
in previous discussions. This layer of very dry air has been
hindering convective development in the northeastern quadrant for
the past 3-4 days. However...the global models are in good
agreement on the dry air mixing out over the next 36 hours and the
inner core becoming quite moist...which should allow for some
steady intensification to occur before Isaac interacts with the
mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. Given the impressive upper-level
outflow pattern that the cyclone has developed...Isaac is still
expected to become a hurricane by 36 hours. After that...however...
the the primary impediment to strengthening will be the interaction
with the land masses of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. How much the
inner core of Isaac is disrupted while over land will determine
just how much re-strengthening will occur once the center moves
back over water after 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast and is in reasonable agreement
with the decay-SHIPS and lgem intensity models.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 23/0900z 15.3n 64.0w 35 kt 40 mph
12h 23/1800z 16.2n 65.9w 40 kt 45 mph
24h 24/0600z 16.9n 68.4w 50 kt 60 mph
36h 24/1800z 17.8n 71.1w 65 kt 75 mph
48h 25/0600z 19.1n 73.4w 55 kt 65 mph
72h 26/0600z 21.8n 77.4w 60 kt 70 mph...inland
96h 27/0600z 24.4n 80.9w 65 kt 75 mph...over water
120h 28/0600z 27.4n 83.7w 70 kt 80 mph

$$
forecaster Stewart


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

This morning he's still down there, and still looks to be a bit South of where he's officially plotted. It also looks like he's going a bit slower this morning. The official track did move a bit to the left. But, if he's going slower that too may change. On the current official track he'll be breezing his way through Key West on his way to Pensacola. That's after he spends some difficult time over Cuba.

Bottom line Issac hasn't shown us what he's thinking yet, still a waiting game.



MineCoast
Premium
join:2004-10-06
127.0.0.1

I'm located in Pensacola. I'd honestly be surprised if it's only a cat 1 or 2 when it hits. It seems like this time of year as soon as a storm hits the gulf, it grows overnight. We shall see however.



SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Hurricane Warning Up for the Keys!

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RutRoh!
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Shooting the gap!
Isaac, Is now a confirmed problem! Overnight he slipped across Haiti and is on a course that will minimize Cuba's impact on him. He is predicted to go into the Florida Straights which of course means heavy impact on the Keys. I'm seeing a shift to the right side of the track, the East coast may not be in the clear yet either.

Hurricane Warning's have just gone up for the Keys, with Warnings and watches on up the East coast, and just a bit up the West side.

From the NHC...

The circulation of Isaac has remained relatively intact after moving
across the southwestern peninsula of Haiti overnight. Before the
center moved inland...hurricane hunter aircraft data suggested that
the cyclone had peak winds of about 55 kt. Assuming the cyclone
weakened a little after encountering the high terrain...the initial
intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 320/12. As a mid-level trough lifts
out of the southeastern United States...Isaac will move generally
west-northwestward around the west side of the subtropical ridge
for the next three days or so...and then turn northward late in the
period as a shortwave trough amplifies over the eastern United
States. There has been little change to the NHC forecast this
cycle...and the new track forecast is close to the middle of the
guidance envelope and lies close to the GFS and the tvca
multi-model consensus through 96 hours. By day 5 there is some
disagreement as to whether Isaac will turn northeastward ahead of
the shortwave trough as shown by the GFS...UKMET...and the GFDL or be left behind as shown by the ECMWF and HWRF. The NHC day 5 point is between the two camps showing a slow northward motion.

Given that the cyclone has fared rather well after moving across
Haiti...and that the track forecast has only minimal interaction
with Cuba...the intensity forecast after 12 hours has been adjusted
upward following the trend of the latest intensity guidance. Isaac
is expected to become a hurricane in about 36 hours...with
additional intensification expected as the cyclone moves into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico in a favorable environment. The new NHC
intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus aids through
72 hours and follows a blend of the decay SHIPS and lgem afterward.

The new NHC forecast necessitates the issuance of a Hurricane
Warning for the Florida Keys and a portion of the southwest coast
of Florida at this time.

It is important not to focus on the exact track of Isaac due to the
uncertainties in the forecast and the fact that Isaac has a large
area of tropical storm force winds associated with it.

Read more at »maps.wunderground.com/tropical/a···SAHFo.99


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Click for full size
I think the next Model run will be interesting. I'm expecting a fair shift to the right. Since 5AM Issac has been moving more northerly than predicted from what I can determine on satellite images. If this holds up expect a rightward shift in the projected path.


KeysCapt
FAQ Master
join:2001-07-11
Carson City, NV
kudos:1

The Navy track as of 1325Z still has the path well west of the Florida mainland.




Dragasoni
We're All Mad Here
Premium
join:2001-12-14
Palm Bay, FL
reply to SmokChsr

We've had a few squalls off the coast last night and all morning. Not much rain, but the winds has been gusting over 20 mph since last night. The power briefly went out and came back on with a surge at 9:30 this morning.

I picked up the essentials from Publix last night including an 18 pack of beer

Stay safe everyone!

-Dragasoni-


wth
Premium
join:2002-02-20
Iowa City,IA
Reviews:
·Mediacom
reply to SmokChsr

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May become a cat 2 on Tue am.


wxboss
This is like Deja vu all over again.
Premium
join:2005-01-30
Fort Lauderdale, FL
reply to MineCoast

said by MineCoast:

I'm located in Pensacola. I'd honestly be surprised if it's only a cat 1 or 2 when it hits. It seems like this time of year as soon as a storm hits the gulf, it grows overnight. We shall see however.

Ain't that the truth. I feel sorry for you guys. I lived in P'cola for about 4 years when I was in the Navy back in the early 90's and never saw one storm. Shortly after I moved well East, the bottom fell out!

Take care up there!
--
"I do not believe in a fate that falls on men however they act; but I do believe in a fate that falls on them unless they act." --- G. K. Chesterton


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

As of now Isaac is still very poorly defined. It's definitely going to make some bad weather in the Keys. I'll try to do more on this one in the morning. Just looking at the satellite image it's very difficult to even determine the center of circulation. Even without being well defined there has been a rapid increase in convection in the last few hours. The Cuban radars are off line (several days behind) so they aren't any help, and it's not quite in range of Miami yet.



SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Click for full size
a bit more organized
Isaac remains poorly defined, even so he is building strength and moving quickly towards the Keys. he is starting to pull himself together and is starting to look like a real tropical storm. Squall lines are already moving through South Florida and all down the Keys. It's not going to be a good weather day anywhere in the Keys today. Hayward & Keys Captn better hang on to your hats, looks like it's gonna be a blow.


KeysCapt
FAQ Master
join:2001-07-11
Carson City, NV
kudos:1

I'll tell ya what, about 30 minutes ago I thought Isaac was visiting Fort Lauderdale ... high winds, driving rain and trees bent over with branches in the street.

All the tracks still project it crossing the lower Keys and passing offshore of the west coast, but yeah, we will all get some effect.



sailor
Premium
join:2003-10-21
Long Island
kudos:6
reply to SmokChsr

It was this week a year ago that Irene caused so much misery and destruction in so many states...such widespread devastating historic flooding that took many by surprise.

I sure hope Isaac doesn't turn out to be as sneaky as Irene was.

Hoping everyone who could be affected by Isaac is taking precautions and remaining alert.



DKS
Damn Kidney Stones
Premium,ExMod 2002
join:2001-03-22
Owen Sound, ON
kudos:2
reply to SmokChsr

Another one in the pipeline...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.



SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Click for full size
I'm gonna Huff & Puff
Isaac, is way ahead of where he is supposed to be.. he's just South East of Key West right now. He wasn't expected to get to Key West until around midnight. It looks like he's about 10 hours ahead of schedule. Key West hang on.. in the next 2 hours you should see the peak of the storm.


wxboss
This is like Deja vu all over again.
Premium
join:2005-01-30
Fort Lauderdale, FL
reply to SmokChsr

The wind isn't too bad here and the rain isn't too hard. Just a good day to stay inside and relax.



HFB1217
The Wizard
Premium,ExMod 2000-01
join:2000-06-26
Camelot
kudos:2
reply to SmokChsr

Looks like another one bites the dust for SW Florida we lucked out but I feel sorry for New Orleans.
--
*****aka The WIZARD *****A Founding member of Seti BBR Team Starfire***



SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

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Gettin my grove on!
Isaac is through the Keys and into the Gulf. His Satellite images show he's getting his act together. Currently he is a running to the right of the projected path. Winds haven't increased much yet, I expect by morning they will start to increase.

KeysCapt, silly me, I thought you were in the Keys. Hayward how is Key West doing?


KeysCapt
FAQ Master
join:2001-07-11
Carson City, NV
kudos:1
reply to HFB1217

Yep, projected to be a Cat 2 and coming ashore at New Orleans.



jabarnut
Light Years Away
Premium,MVM
join:2005-01-22
Galaxy M31
kudos:2

1 edit

Yeah, and while this is no Katrina, I feel sorry for them too. I'm sure some of the memories are still quite vivid.
Even though this storm isn't nearly as powerful as Katrina was, it's very slow moving, and the rainfall amounts could be incredible.
I'm also glad they made it clear that the Superdome would NOT be a shelter...don't need that mess again.

Oh, and I'm also glad you folks in the Keys got away relatively unscathed....looked a little hairy for a while there.

(Edit)

said by SmokChsr:

...
KeysCapt, silly me, I thought you were in the Keys. Hayward how is Key West doing?

Actually I always thought that as well. But regardless, still glad you folks in the Keys got through this ok. (At least, from what I can tell from reports out of there).
--
I had a life once.....now I have a Computer and a Modem.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to KeysCapt

said by KeysCapt:

Yep, projected to be a Cat 2 and coming ashore at New Orleans.

As with all things tropical, that prediction has now changed to a Cat 1 at landfall. All models still have it headed for Cajun country.

The satellite imagery showed it well right of the projected track over night, and now it appears to be crossing the projected path headed towards the left side of the track (almost due West). While it's interesting to watch, it's not uncommon for tropical storms to not stick to the game plan. I try to point these variances out, since often it will be an update or two before the NHC, will commit to an actual change. Somewhat like my GPS which will try to have me driving on the road it wanted me to drive on even though I've taken an off ramp. Eventually the GPS will give up and admit I exited, but it takes a while before it give up on its projected path.


wth
Premium
join:2002-02-20
Iowa City,IA
Reviews:
·Mediacom
reply to SmokChsr

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Latest is landfall as a cat 2


burner50
Proud Union THUG
Premium
join:2002-06-05
Fort Worth, TX
kudos:1

said by wth:

Latest is landfall as a cat 2

My employer has embargoed the area and is expecting it to be a Cat 1 when it makes landfall.
--
I'm tired of killing stupid people just trying to do my job and go home!


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Click for full size
I can see this much, Isaac is zig zag'n across the Gulf. He's quite a wobbly fella, must have had to many margaritas while he was in Key West. As Burner said he's back to a "predicted" cat 1 at land fall. As of now he's still only a tropical storm, full force, but he needs just a bit (4MPH) more to make it to Hurricane status. That is expected to happen over night so we'll see if I need to change the topic in the morning. He has yet to opened his eye. The primary trouble he is going to cause is flooding. A cat 1 storm isn't that bad, of course it may seem bad if the tree fell on your house, but overall it's not going to just destroy everything in of it's path like a cat 5 can. Yes there will be major power outages, trees down (lot's of them) and other such things. The area Isaac is going into has been in a serious drought so the rain will likely be welcome, but preferred to have been over a longer time period.

In my area of NE Florida Issac is still making his presence known winds are still up rain bands have been tracking through most of the day. I recorded 0.98" of rain in St. Augustine.

And now what the NHC had to say at 11PM EDST..
The satellite presentation of Isaac has not changed very much during the past few hours. Infrared and microwave imagery show a strong band of convection...perhaps the beginning of an eyewall...wrapping around the south and east portions of the circulation. However... aircraft observations indicate that the convective band was open to the northwest and that the low-level center was displaced a little to the south of the rotation seen in satellite pictures. The minimum pressure has not fallen significantly during the past several hours and the NOAA and Air Force aircraft have not reported winds any higher than what was measured late this afternoon.

Therefore...Isaac remains a 60-kt tropical storm for this advisory. Isaac continues to have difficultly maintaining deep convection over the northern semicircle likely due to some dry air entrainment. Otherwise...environmental conditions should be conducive for strengthening until landfall. Isaac is forecast to become a hurricane overnight and NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than most of the guidance.

Isaac has been moving northwestward or 310 degrees at 9 kt. The track guidance has continued to come into better agreement during the first 36 to 48 hours of the forecast period. Isaac should move northwestward toward the north-central Gulf Coast where a break in the subtropical ridge is located. As a mid-latitude trough bypasses Isaac in a day or so...some ridging builds to the northwest of the cyclone. This is expected to cause Isaac to slow down as it moves inland. After 72 hours...the cyclone should begin to move a little faster toward the north and northeast as it moves around the western side of a mid-level ridge that slides eastward across the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. The new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and remains between the ECMWF and GFS models.

Isaac is a large tropical cyclone. A dangerous storm surge...heavy rainfall...and strong winds extend well away from the center and are expected to affect a large portion of the northern Gulf Coast. The threat of heavy rainfall and flooding is also expected to spread inland over the lower Mississippi Valley region during the next few days.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 28/0300z 27.1n 87.0w 60 kt 70 mph
12h 28/1200z 28.0n 88.0w 70 kt 80 mph
24h 29/0000z 29.1n 89.2w 80 kt 90 mph...on the coast
36h 29/1200z 29.9n 90.1w 65 kt 75 mph...inland
48h 30/0000z 30.7n 90.7w 50 kt 60 mph...inland
72h 31/0000z 33.3n 91.7w 30 kt 35 mph...inland
96h 01/0000z 37.5n 91.5w 25 kt 30 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
120h 02/0000z 40.5n 87.5w 20 kt 25 mph...Post-trop/remnt low

Read more at »maps.wunderground.com/tropical/a···cl9E4.99


DKS
Damn Kidney Stones
Premium,ExMod 2002
join:2001-03-22
Owen Sound, ON
kudos:2
reply to SmokChsr

Long range track suggests Isaac as a post tropical storm will ruin Labour Day Monday and the last long weekend of the summer in Ontario.
--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.



SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Hurricane Isaac

Yes he finally did it, at 1220 PM (EDST) This afternoon Isaac was declared a hurricane by the NHC with winds of 75 MPH.

Wouldn't ya know it he did this just hours after the edit button went away for my opening message..



SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Click for full size
I heard you need some rain
Issac is just about to make land fall out on the delta, it'll still be a while before he gets to New Orleans. His approach is almost a worse case location as far as pushing surge into Lake Pontchartrain. Even so as a minimal cat 1 storm, I wouldn't expected the surge to be near as much as predicted. This area has been in a drought, so the rain will help. The down side is it's mostly clay soil which can't absorb water quickly.

The front side of the storm doesn't seem to have that much water in it, waiting to see what the back side has to offer. As of now most of the moisture from Isaac is on the Carloina coast.