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SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Click for full size
Gettin my grove on!
Isaac is through the Keys and into the Gulf. His Satellite images show he's getting his act together. Currently he is a running to the right of the projected path. Winds haven't increased much yet, I expect by morning they will start to increase.

KeysCapt, silly me, I thought you were in the Keys. Hayward how is Key West doing?


KeysCapt
FAQ Master
join:2001-07-11
Carson City, NV
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reply to HFB1217

Yep, projected to be a Cat 2 and coming ashore at New Orleans.



jabarnut
Light Years Away
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join:2005-01-22
Galaxy M31
kudos:2

1 edit

Yeah, and while this is no Katrina, I feel sorry for them too. I'm sure some of the memories are still quite vivid.
Even though this storm isn't nearly as powerful as Katrina was, it's very slow moving, and the rainfall amounts could be incredible.
I'm also glad they made it clear that the Superdome would NOT be a shelter...don't need that mess again.

Oh, and I'm also glad you folks in the Keys got away relatively unscathed....looked a little hairy for a while there.

(Edit)

said by SmokChsr:

...
KeysCapt, silly me, I thought you were in the Keys. Hayward how is Key West doing?

Actually I always thought that as well. But regardless, still glad you folks in the Keys got through this ok. (At least, from what I can tell from reports out of there).
--
I had a life once.....now I have a Computer and a Modem.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to KeysCapt

said by KeysCapt:

Yep, projected to be a Cat 2 and coming ashore at New Orleans.

As with all things tropical, that prediction has now changed to a Cat 1 at landfall. All models still have it headed for Cajun country.

The satellite imagery showed it well right of the projected track over night, and now it appears to be crossing the projected path headed towards the left side of the track (almost due West). While it's interesting to watch, it's not uncommon for tropical storms to not stick to the game plan. I try to point these variances out, since often it will be an update or two before the NHC, will commit to an actual change. Somewhat like my GPS which will try to have me driving on the road it wanted me to drive on even though I've taken an off ramp. Eventually the GPS will give up and admit I exited, but it takes a while before it give up on its projected path.


wth
Premium
join:2002-02-20
Iowa City,IA
Reviews:
·Mediacom
reply to SmokChsr

Click for full size
Latest is landfall as a cat 2


burner50
Proud Union THUG
Premium
join:2002-06-05
Fort Worth, TX
kudos:1

said by wth:

Latest is landfall as a cat 2

My employer has embargoed the area and is expecting it to be a Cat 1 when it makes landfall.
--
I'm tired of killing stupid people just trying to do my job and go home!


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Click for full size
I can see this much, Isaac is zig zag'n across the Gulf. He's quite a wobbly fella, must have had to many margaritas while he was in Key West. As Burner said he's back to a "predicted" cat 1 at land fall. As of now he's still only a tropical storm, full force, but he needs just a bit (4MPH) more to make it to Hurricane status. That is expected to happen over night so we'll see if I need to change the topic in the morning. He has yet to opened his eye. The primary trouble he is going to cause is flooding. A cat 1 storm isn't that bad, of course it may seem bad if the tree fell on your house, but overall it's not going to just destroy everything in of it's path like a cat 5 can. Yes there will be major power outages, trees down (lot's of them) and other such things. The area Isaac is going into has been in a serious drought so the rain will likely be welcome, but preferred to have been over a longer time period.

In my area of NE Florida Issac is still making his presence known winds are still up rain bands have been tracking through most of the day. I recorded 0.98" of rain in St. Augustine.

And now what the NHC had to say at 11PM EDST..
The satellite presentation of Isaac has not changed very much during the past few hours. Infrared and microwave imagery show a strong band of convection...perhaps the beginning of an eyewall...wrapping around the south and east portions of the circulation. However... aircraft observations indicate that the convective band was open to the northwest and that the low-level center was displaced a little to the south of the rotation seen in satellite pictures. The minimum pressure has not fallen significantly during the past several hours and the NOAA and Air Force aircraft have not reported winds any higher than what was measured late this afternoon.

Therefore...Isaac remains a 60-kt tropical storm for this advisory. Isaac continues to have difficultly maintaining deep convection over the northern semicircle likely due to some dry air entrainment. Otherwise...environmental conditions should be conducive for strengthening until landfall. Isaac is forecast to become a hurricane overnight and NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than most of the guidance.

Isaac has been moving northwestward or 310 degrees at 9 kt. The track guidance has continued to come into better agreement during the first 36 to 48 hours of the forecast period. Isaac should move northwestward toward the north-central Gulf Coast where a break in the subtropical ridge is located. As a mid-latitude trough bypasses Isaac in a day or so...some ridging builds to the northwest of the cyclone. This is expected to cause Isaac to slow down as it moves inland. After 72 hours...the cyclone should begin to move a little faster toward the north and northeast as it moves around the western side of a mid-level ridge that slides eastward across the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. The new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and remains between the ECMWF and GFS models.

Isaac is a large tropical cyclone. A dangerous storm surge...heavy rainfall...and strong winds extend well away from the center and are expected to affect a large portion of the northern Gulf Coast. The threat of heavy rainfall and flooding is also expected to spread inland over the lower Mississippi Valley region during the next few days.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 28/0300z 27.1n 87.0w 60 kt 70 mph
12h 28/1200z 28.0n 88.0w 70 kt 80 mph
24h 29/0000z 29.1n 89.2w 80 kt 90 mph...on the coast
36h 29/1200z 29.9n 90.1w 65 kt 75 mph...inland
48h 30/0000z 30.7n 90.7w 50 kt 60 mph...inland
72h 31/0000z 33.3n 91.7w 30 kt 35 mph...inland
96h 01/0000z 37.5n 91.5w 25 kt 30 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
120h 02/0000z 40.5n 87.5w 20 kt 25 mph...Post-trop/remnt low

Read more at »maps.wunderground.com/tropical/a···cl9E4.99


DKS
Damn Kidney Stones
Premium,ExMod 2002
join:2001-03-22
Owen Sound, ON
kudos:2
reply to SmokChsr

Long range track suggests Isaac as a post tropical storm will ruin Labour Day Monday and the last long weekend of the summer in Ontario.
--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.



SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Hurricane Isaac

Yes he finally did it, at 1220 PM (EDST) This afternoon Isaac was declared a hurricane by the NHC with winds of 75 MPH.

Wouldn't ya know it he did this just hours after the edit button went away for my opening message..



SmokChsr
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join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Click for full size
I heard you need some rain
Issac is just about to make land fall out on the delta, it'll still be a while before he gets to New Orleans. His approach is almost a worse case location as far as pushing surge into Lake Pontchartrain. Even so as a minimal cat 1 storm, I wouldn't expected the surge to be near as much as predicted. This area has been in a drought, so the rain will help. The down side is it's mostly clay soil which can't absorb water quickly.

The front side of the storm doesn't seem to have that much water in it, waiting to see what the back side has to offer. As of now most of the moisture from Isaac is on the Carloina coast.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to DKS

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

said by DKS:

Long range track suggests Isaac as a post tropical storm will ruin Labour Day Monday

It might, I wouldn't cancel any plans just yet. Besides I thought Labor day was an American Holiday. Ya'll aren't supposed to have the day off up there, get back to work!!!


DKS
Damn Kidney Stones
Premium,ExMod 2002
join:2001-03-22
Owen Sound, ON
kudos:2

1 recommendation

said by SmokChsr:

said by DKS:

Long range track suggests Isaac as a post tropical storm will ruin Labour Day Monday

It might, I wouldn't cancel any plans just yet. Besides I thought Labor day was an American Holiday. Ya'll aren't supposed to have the day off up there, get back to work!!!

Being that we invented it.. no.

»en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Day#Canada

quote:
Labour Day has been celebrated on the first Monday in September in Canada since the 1880s. The origins of Labour Day in Canada can be traced back to December 1872 when a parade was staged in support of the Toronto Typographical Union's strike for a 58-hour work-week.[1] The Toronto Trades Assembly (TTA) called its 27 unions to demonstrate in support of the Typographical Union who had been on strike since March 25.[1] George Brown, Canadian politician and editor of the Toronto Globe hit back at his striking employees, pressing police to charge the Typographical Union with "conspiracy."[1] Although the laws criminalising union activity were outdated and had already been abolished in Great Britain, they were still on the books in Canada and police arrested 24 leaders of the Typographical Union. Labour leaders decided to call another similar demonstration on September 3 to protest the arrests. Seven unions marched in Ottawa, prompting a promise by Canadian Prime Minister Sir John A. Macdonald to repeal the "barbarous" anti-union laws.[1] Parliament passed the Trade Union Act on June 14 the following year, and soon all unions were seeking a 54-hour work-week.

The Toronto Trades and Labour Council (successor to the TTA) held similar celebrations every spring. American Peter J. McGuire, co-founder of the American Federation of Labor, was asked to speak at a labour festival in Toronto, Canada on July 22, 1882. Returning to the United States, McGuire and the Knights of Labor organised a similar parade based on the Canadian event on September 5, 1882 in New York City, USA. On July 23, 1894, Canadian Prime Minister John Thompson and his government made Labour Day, to be held in September, an official holiday. In the United States, the New York parade became an annual event that year, and in 1894 was adopted by American president Grover Cleveland to compete with International Workers' Day (May Day).

--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Hurricane Issac Stalls!

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What shall I do?
I've always said tropical systems aren't watching the weather channel. Issac once again has proved that by having the front of the eyewall hit land at 2PM EDST this afternoon, (my observation on radar, the official version is 9:45PM EDST) and now at 2AM he still hasn't crossed the coast. Actually he bounced off the mouth of the Mississippi River and is now slowly crawling westward along the Southern Louisiana coast. A second landfall is expected later this morning.

I guess I need to check the definitions since I was counting land fall as any time any portion of the eye was over land, obviously that is not how the NHC is determining it.

This has put New Orleans in the heaviest rain area, so it's going to have rain flooding. The NHC is still listing Isaac with 80 MPH winds, but it's likely a bit less than that.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Hurricane Isaac

Right now Isaac is not moving. He's SSW of NO and SE of Houma. With this stall out NO on up to about 20 miles North of I-12 is getting quite a bit of rain.

From the NHC

After remaining quasi-stationary for several hours...aircraft and
radar data indicate that the center of Isaac made a second landfall
near Port Fourchon Louisiana and is beginning to move inland over
southeast Louisiana. Observations from the hurricane hunter
aircraft indicate that the eye is open over the western portion of
the circulation...and the radar presentation has become more
asymmetric over the past couple of hours. However...the radar
reflectivities indicate that convection has become stronger over
the northern and eastern portions of the cyclone...and the aircraft
reported that the central pressure remains quite low. The current
intensity is held at 70 kt...but weakening is imminent now that the
center has begun to move over land. For the next 24 hours or
so...the official intensity forecast shows a somewhat slower rate
of weakening than that given by the inland decay model due to the
swampy terrain that the system will traverse.

Since the system has only begun to move recently...the initial
motion is an uncertain 300/7. Isaac is currently moving through a
weakness in the subtropical ridge. Over the next few days...a
mid-level anticylone shifts eastward over the central and eastern
United States. As a result...Isaac should gradually turn toward
the north and northeast during the forecast period. Near the end
of the period...Post-tropical Isaac should move east-northeastward
in the flow between the mid-latitude westerlies and the
aforementioned anticylone. The official track forecast is similar
to the previous one and close to the model consensus.

Since the system is likely to move slowly over the next 24 hours or
so...there is a continued threat of flooding from heavy rains over
the northern Gulf Coast area.

National ocean service tide gauges indicate that storm surge heights
of 6 to 10 feet are still occurring along portions of the coast of
southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi. Given the long duration
of onshore flow in these areas...water levels are expected to remain
high through today.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 29/0900z 29.2n 90.5w 70 kt 80 mph...inland
12h 29/1800z 29.7n 91.1w 65 kt 75 mph...inland
24h 30/0600z 30.5n 91.8w 50 kt 60 mph...inland
36h 30/1800z 31.8n 92.8w 30 kt 35 mph...inland
48h 31/0600z 33.6n 93.7w 25 kt 30 mph...inland
72h 01/0600z 37.5n 93.5w 20 kt 25 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
96h 02/0600z 39.5n 90.0w 15 kt 15 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
120h 03/0600z 40.5n 86.0w 15 kt 15 mph...Post-trop/remnt low



Hayward
K A R - 1 2 0 C
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Key West, FL
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4 edits

said by SmokChsr:

Right now Isaac is not moving. He's SSW of NO and SE of Houma. With this stall out NO on up to about 20 miles North of I-12 is getting quite a bit of rain.

From the NHC

After remaining quasi-stationary for several hours.

Think over in SE forum told you so... stalled it like more than a week from impact here ( Sun a week later) remnants will impact central east MW like IL/Ind... that much need the remaining rain saturated LA and MS in no way does. But just stalls on shore (30 hrs) and goes nowhere... would be bad.

But may be the good thing of all this if Issac will just get off his butt and back in gear again and keep moving. E-NE (or just E-Miss River remnants seem headed if not just dies where it is) E-MW really needs the rain
--



EGeezer
zichrona livracha
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Midwest
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reply to SmokChsr

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

NOLA says the levee in Plaquemines Parish was breached and the Mandeville seawall is overflowing from Lake Pontchartrain.

Tornado watches abound.

As in the past, NOLA.com and the (sadly)downsized Times-Picayune has been a great current source of information.
»www.nola.com/hurricane/

Local radio stations like WWL and KKAY are also giving lots of time to storm updates, messages, idle talk( ) etc.

»www.wwltv.com/live-stream/exempt

»www.kkay1590.com/index.htm?webcast

11 foot storm surge is quite a bit for a cat 1 storm, but then it's been parked for awhile and they're nearing full moon tides.



ropeguru
Premium
join:2001-01-25
Mechanicsville, VA
reply to SmokChsr

Re: Hurricane Issac Stalls!

said by SmokChsr:

I guess I need to check the definitions since I was counting land fall as any time any portion of the eye was over land, obviously that is not how the NHC is determining it.

According to NHC:

LANDFALL - The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water. Compare direct hit, indirect hit, and strike.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Back to Tropical Storm Isaac

Click for full size
Click for full size
Finally moving very slowly.. No one predicted this stall that I know of, obviously it caused serious troubles. I'm hearing that at least one levee was topped South of NO (not in the metro).

For those of us familiar with tropical events, having a storm stall on top of you is quite distressing, and damaging. Things that would survive a higher class storm once they are subjected to high winds 24 or more hours start to come apart. Not to mention the accumulated non-stop rainfall.



SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
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Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Moving S L O W L Y but moving..

Click for full size
Click for full size
Isaac, is slowly creeping his way up the Mississippi river. Doesn't look like he's going to make it to Canada for Labour day. Rainfall Totals don't appear to be in the 25+ in range as some of the weather people were hyping on. Still if the 14" of rain ran through you living room you might feel different.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to ropeguru

Re: Hurricane Issac Stalls!

said by ropeguru:

According to NHC:
LANDFALL - The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline.

That's pretty much what I was thinking it is. In this case, with that definition, the actual first landfall time could have been judged + or - 8 hours. What I used (right or wrong) if the storm has an eye wall, and land has made it inside the eye wall, then it has made land fall. Then again they may not have considered the long, very lightly populated, area of Louisiana, where the Mississippi outflows into the Gulf as real land.


DKS
Damn Kidney Stones
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Owen Sound, ON
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reply to SmokChsr

Re: Moving S L O W L Y but moving..

said by SmokChsr:

Doesn't look like he's going to make it to Canada for Labour day.

Depends. Environment Canada is calling for 40% showers on Monday and I'm on the northern edge of the cone. . Isaac could drift north post tropical and pee on the Great Lakes. Looks like it will blow out over Ohio/New York/ Pennsylvania.
--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

So far Isaac is still in Arkansas and is drying out pretty fast in that drought area.



Hayward
K A R - 1 2 0 C
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Key West, FL
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4 edits
reply to SmokChsr

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

said by SmokChsr:

Isaac, is way ahead of where he is supposed to be.. he's just South East of Key West right now. He wasn't expected to get to Key West until around midnight. It looks like he's about 10 hours ahead of schedule. Key West hang on.. in the next 2 hours you should see the peak of the storm.

But then something weird happened... Isaac took a major time out.... as shown in this GEOS Sat time lapse loop.

Watch what happens starting about 15 sec into this loop...until he's past us
»www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogal···51211041

Just falls apart over us only to instantly regather past us.

Guess the ladies in the hurricane Grotto at the Catholic Church built in 1922 did their job once again.

»www.keywestcatholicparish.org/Grotto.html

Even a lot of non Catholics go light candles there before storms... can't possibly hurt.

Not being a very religious person, not gong to say quite up there with parting the Red Sea, but a very interesting momentary coincidence just for us, for sure.

And in the near 100 years now since built, there have been very damaging storms like Georges and Wilma, but no devastating ones like 1914 or the 1935 Cat 5 that wiped out the upper Keys (Matacumbes/Islamorada) which also saw the heaviest rain and wind in Issac

We saw less than 2"
of TOTAL rain and only moderate TS winds, with virtually no backside. It was all over in under 6 hours.

Agin the upper Keys (and even nearby 24mi much more) got as much as 7" and like SE FL caught up in the long feeder bands got hammered but close to the eye (just west of us) when that temp collapse happened very little.

--



Hayward
K A R - 1 2 0 C
Premium
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Key West, FL
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reply to SmokChsr

Re: Moving S L O W L Y but moving..

said by SmokChsr:

So far Isaac is still in Arkansas and is drying out pretty fast in that drought area.

To bad, hope some thing is left....Southern IL/IN really need the rain even though its too late for this year's crops. But just to keep the soil fertile and in place, as well as fire risks keeping forest alive.
--



burner50
Proud Union THUG
Premium
join:2002-06-05
Fort Worth, TX
kudos:1

said by Hayward:

said by SmokChsr:

So far Isaac is still in Arkansas and is drying out pretty fast in that drought area.

To bad, hope some thing is left....Southern IL/IN really need the rain even though its too late for this year's crops. But just to keep the soil fertile and in place, as well as fire risks keeping forest alive.

Too late for the corn, but it might help the beans.
--
I'm tired of killing stupid people just trying to do my job and go home!


DrStrange
Technically feasible
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West Hartford, CT
kudos:1
reply to SmokChsr

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Looks like a rain band made it to southern IL. Doesn't look like IN will see much of this band. There's more rain coming out of AR that might find its way up there eventually.



SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Guess who may be coming back.. After circling up and down the middle of the USA, it looks as if Isaac is about to make a reappearance in the Gulf. Currently he is known as invest 90L and is creating some heavy storms along the Gulf Coast.



SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
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Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Invest 90L Formerly known as Isaac..

Click for full size
Again a bit confused.
In a couple days we should know if Issac is going to make a reappearance in the Gulf. Right now they are giving him a 30% chance of reforming. Currently he has very little convection over the low level circulation center. There is an area of moderate convection about 150 miles to the South West of the center that is just starting to get drawn in. As of sunset the low level center was easily visible on sat images, and fairly well defined. Most models do have him back up to tropical storm strength around Sunday afternoon.


ropeguru
Premium
join:2001-01-25
Mechanicsville, VA

But it won't be called Isaac.



SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

I heard some debate on that, at first I heard it would, then I heard it wouldn't. Either way it seems to have fallen apart for now so it's likely a mute point.