Topic 'Re: Tropical Storm Isaac' in forum 'Weather' - dslreports.com

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Sat, 08 Sep 2012 19:05:53 EDT

imtim83 posted : Hurricane Isaac was fun! Saw a little bit of roofs coming off. Was a long 2 nights with the wind. Storm just didn't want to go away.

6 days without electricity.

I look look forward to the next Hurricane.

Love storms that say they are going to Florida or somewhere else but instead hit Louisiana.

Re: Invest 90L Formerly known as Isaac..

Sat, 08 Sep 2012 16:36:11 EDT

SmokChsr posted : I heard some debate on that, at first I heard it would, then I heard it wouldn't. Either way it seems to have fallen apart for now so it's likely a mute point.

Re: Invest 90L Formerly known as Isaac..

Fri, 07 Sep 2012 10:18:19 EDT

ropeguru posted : But it won't be called Isaac.

Invest 90L Formerly known as Isaac..

Fri, 07 Sep 2012 05:47:31 EDT

SmokChsr posted : In a couple days we should know if Issac is going to make a reappearance in the Gulf. Right now they are giving him a 30% chance of reforming. Currently he has very little convection over the low level circulation center. There is an area of moderate convection about 150 miles to the South West of the center that is just starting to get drawn in. As of sunset the low level center was easily visible on sat images, and fairly well defined. Most models do have him back up to tropical storm strength around Sunday afternoon.

Again a bit confused.

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Wed, 05 Sep 2012 12:02:09 EDT

SmokChsr posted : Guess who may be coming back.. After circling up and down the middle of the USA, it looks as if Isaac is about to make a reappearance in the Gulf. Currently he is known as invest 90L and is creating some heavy storms along the Gulf Coast.

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Fri, 31 Aug 2012 23:08:01 EDT

DrStrange posted : Looks like a rain band made it to southern IL. Doesn't look like IN will see much of this band. There's more rain coming out of AR that might find its way up there eventually.

Re: Moving S L O W L Y but moving..

Fri, 31 Aug 2012 18:10:21 EDT

burner50 posted :

said by Hayward:

said by SmokChsr:

So far Isaac is still in Arkansas and is drying out pretty fast in that drought area.

To bad, hope some thing is left....Southern IL/IN really need the rain even though its too late for this year's crops. But just to keep the soil fertile and in place, as well as fire risks keeping forest alive.

Too late for the corn, but it might help the beans.
--
I'm tired of killing stupid people just trying to do my job and go home!

Re: Moving S L O W L Y but moving..

Fri, 31 Aug 2012 02:52:16 EDT

Hayward posted :

said by SmokChsr:

So far Isaac is still in Arkansas and is drying out pretty fast in that drought area.

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Fri, 31 Aug 2012 02:13:37 EDT

Hayward posted :

said by SmokChsr:

Isaac, is way ahead of where he is supposed to be.. he's just South East of Key West right now. He wasn't expected to get to Key West until around midnight. It looks like he's about 10 hours ahead of schedule. Key West hang on.. in the next 2 hours you should see the peak of the storm.

But then something weird happened... Isaac took a major time out.... as shown in this GEOS Sat time lapse loop.

Watch what happens starting about 15 sec into this loop...until he's past us
»www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogal···51211041

Just falls apart over us only to instantly regather past us.

Guess the ladies in the hurricane Grotto at the Catholic Church built in 1922 did their job once again.

»www.keywestcatholicparish.org/Grotto.html

Even a lot of non Catholics go light candles there before storms... can't possibly hurt.

Not being a very religious person, not gong to say quite up there with parting the Red Sea, but a very interesting momentary coincidence just for us, for sure.

And in the near 100 years now since built, there have been very damaging storms like Georges and Wilma, but no devastating ones like 1914 or the 1935 Cat 5 that wiped out the upper Keys (Matacumbes/Islamorada) which also saw the heaviest rain and wind in Issac

We saw less than 2"
of TOTAL rain and only moderate TS winds, with virtually no backside. It was all over in under 6 hours.

Agin the upper Keys (and even nearby 24mi much more) got as much as 7" and like SE FL caught up in the long feeder bands got hammered but close to the eye (just west of us) when that temp collapse happened very little.

--

Re: Moving S L O W L Y but moving..

Thu, 30 Aug 2012 23:25:27 EDT

SmokChsr posted : So far Isaac is still in Arkansas and is drying out pretty fast in that drought area.

Re: Moving S L O W L Y but moving..

Thu, 30 Aug 2012 07:20:19 EDT

DKS posted :

said by SmokChsr:

Doesn't look like he's going to make it to Canada for Labour day.

Depends. Environment Canada is calling for 40% showers on Monday and I'm on the northern edge of the cone. . Isaac could drift north post tropical and pee on the Great Lakes. Looks like it will blow out over Ohio/New York/ Pennsylvania.
--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.

Re: Hurricane Issac Stalls!

Thu, 30 Aug 2012 05:35:41 EDT

SmokChsr posted :

said by ropeguru:

According to NHC:
LANDFALL - The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline.

That's pretty much what I was thinking it is. In this case, with that definition, the actual first landfall time could have been judged + or - 8 hours. What I used (right or wrong) if the storm has an eye wall, and land has made it inside the eye wall, then it has made land fall. Then again they may not have considered the long, very lightly populated, area of Louisiana, where the Mississippi outflows into the Gulf as real land.

Moving S L O W L Y but moving..

Thu, 30 Aug 2012 05:01:19 EDT

SmokChsr posted : Isaac, is slowly creeping his way up the Mississippi river. Doesn't look like he's going to make it to Canada for Labour day. Rainfall Totals don't appear to be in the 25+ in range as some of the weather people were hyping on. Still if the 14" of rain ran through you living room you might feel different.

Back to Tropical Storm Isaac

Wed, 29 Aug 2012 19:28:42 EDT

SmokChsr posted : Finally moving very slowly.. No one predicted this stall that I know of, obviously it caused serious troubles. I'm hearing that at least one levee was topped South of NO (not in the metro).

For those of us familiar with tropical events, having a storm stall on top of you is quite distressing, and damaging. Things that would survive a higher class storm once they are subjected to high winds 24 or more hours start to come apart. Not to mention the accumulated non-stop rainfall.

Re: Hurricane Issac Stalls!

Wed, 29 Aug 2012 13:35:01 EDT

ropeguru posted :

said by SmokChsr:

I guess I need to check the definitions since I was counting land fall as any time any portion of the eye was over land, obviously that is not how the NHC is determining it.

According to NHC:

LANDFALL - The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water. Compare direct hit, indirect hit, and strike.

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Wed, 29 Aug 2012 13:25:05 EDT

EGeezer posted : NOLA says the levee in Plaquemines Parish was breached and the Mandeville seawall is overflowing from Lake Pontchartrain.

Tornado watches abound.

As in the past, NOLA.com and the (sadly)downsized Times-Picayune has been a great current source of information.
»www.nola.com/hurricane/

Local radio stations like WWL and KKAY are also giving lots of time to storm updates, messages, idle talk( :D ) etc.

»www.wwltv.com/live-stream/exempt

»www.kkay1590.com/index.htm?webcast

11 foot storm surge is quite a bit for a cat 1 storm, but then it's been parked for awhile and they're nearing full moon tides.

Re: Hurricane Isaac

Wed, 29 Aug 2012 07:53:46 EDT

Hayward posted :

said by SmokChsr:

Right now Isaac is not moving. He's SSW of NO and SE of Houma. With this stall out NO on up to about 20 miles North of I-12 is getting quite a bit of rain.

From the NHC

After remaining quasi-stationary for several hours.

Think over in SE forum told you so... stalled it like more than a week from impact here ( Sun a week later) remnants will impact central east MW like IL/Ind... that much need the remaining rain saturated LA and MS in no way does. But just stalls on shore (30 hrs) and goes nowhere... would be bad.

But may be the good thing of all this if Issac will just get off his butt and back in gear again and keep moving. E-NE (or just E-Miss River remnants seem headed if not just dies where it is) E-MW really needs the rain
--

Hurricane Isaac

Wed, 29 Aug 2012 06:09:40 EDT

SmokChsr posted : Right now Isaac is not moving. He's SSW of NO and SE of Houma. With this stall out NO on up to about 20 miles North of I-12 is getting quite a bit of rain.

From the NHC

After remaining quasi-stationary for several hours...aircraft and
radar data indicate that the center of Isaac made a second landfall
near Port Fourchon Louisiana and is beginning to move inland over
southeast Louisiana. Observations from the hurricane hunter
aircraft indicate that the eye is open over the western portion of
the circulation...and the radar presentation has become more
asymmetric over the past couple of hours. However...the radar
reflectivities indicate that convection has become stronger over
the northern and eastern portions of the cyclone...and the aircraft
reported that the central pressure remains quite low. The current
intensity is held at 70 kt...but weakening is imminent now that the
center has begun to move over land. For the next 24 hours or
so...the official intensity forecast shows a somewhat slower rate
of weakening than that given by the inland decay model due to the
swampy terrain that the system will traverse.

Since the system has only begun to move recently...the initial
motion is an uncertain 300/7. Isaac is currently moving through a
weakness in the subtropical ridge. Over the next few days...a
mid-level anticylone shifts eastward over the central and eastern
United States. As a result...Isaac should gradually turn toward
the north and northeast during the forecast period. Near the end
of the period...Post-tropical Isaac should move east-northeastward
in the flow between the mid-latitude westerlies and the
aforementioned anticylone. The official track forecast is similar
to the previous one and close to the model consensus.

Since the system is likely to move slowly over the next 24 hours or
so...there is a continued threat of flooding from heavy rains over
the northern Gulf Coast area.

National ocean service tide gauges indicate that storm surge heights
of 6 to 10 feet are still occurring along portions of the coast of
southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi. Given the long duration
of onshore flow in these areas...water levels are expected to remain
high through today.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 29/0900z 29.2n 90.5w 70 kt 80 mph...inland
12h 29/1800z 29.7n 91.1w 65 kt 75 mph...inland
24h 30/0600z 30.5n 91.8w 50 kt 60 mph...inland
36h 30/1800z 31.8n 92.8w 30 kt 35 mph...inland
48h 31/0600z 33.6n 93.7w 25 kt 30 mph...inland
72h 01/0600z 37.5n 93.5w 20 kt 25 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
96h 02/0600z 39.5n 90.0w 15 kt 15 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
120h 03/0600z 40.5n 86.0w 15 kt 15 mph...Post-trop/remnt low

Hurricane Issac Stalls!

Wed, 29 Aug 2012 03:16:37 EDT

SmokChsr posted : I've always said tropical systems aren't watching the weather channel. Issac once again has proved that by having the front of the eyewall hit land at 2PM EDST this afternoon, (my observation on radar, the official version is 9:45PM EDST) and now at 2AM he still hasn't crossed the coast. Actually he bounced off the mouth of the Mississippi River and is now slowly crawling westward along the Southern Louisiana coast. A second landfall is expected later this morning.

I guess I need to check the definitions since I was counting land fall as any time any portion of the eye was over land, obviously that is not how the NHC is determining it.

This has put New Orleans in the heaviest rain area, so it's going to have rain flooding. The NHC is still listing Isaac with 80 MPH winds, but it's likely a bit less than that.

What shall I do?

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Tue, 28 Aug 2012 15:33:46 EDT

DKS posted :

said by SmokChsr:

said by DKS:

Long range track suggests Isaac as a post tropical storm will ruin Labour Day Monday

It might, I wouldn't cancel any plans just yet. Besides I thought Labor day was an American Holiday. Ya'll aren't supposed to have the day off up there, get back to work!!! :)

Being that we invented it.. no. :)

»en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Day#Canada

quote:
Labour Day has been celebrated on the first Monday in September in Canada since the 1880s. The origins of Labour Day in Canada can be traced back to December 1872 when a parade was staged in support of the Toronto Typographical Union's strike for a 58-hour work-week.[1] The Toronto Trades Assembly (TTA) called its 27 unions to demonstrate in support of the Typographical Union who had been on strike since March 25.[1] George Brown, Canadian politician and editor of the Toronto Globe hit back at his striking employees, pressing police to charge the Typographical Union with "conspiracy."[1] Although the laws criminalising union activity were outdated and had already been abolished in Great Britain, they were still on the books in Canada and police arrested 24 leaders of the Typographical Union. Labour leaders decided to call another similar demonstration on September 3 to protest the arrests. Seven unions marched in Ottawa, prompting a promise by Canadian Prime Minister Sir John A. Macdonald to repeal the "barbarous" anti-union laws.[1] Parliament passed the Trade Union Act on June 14 the following year, and soon all unions were seeking a 54-hour work-week.

The Toronto Trades and Labour Council (successor to the TTA) held similar celebrations every spring. American Peter J. McGuire, co-founder of the American Federation of Labor, was asked to speak at a labour festival in Toronto, Canada on July 22, 1882. Returning to the United States, McGuire and the Knights of Labor organised a similar parade based on the Canadian event on September 5, 1882 in New York City, USA. On July 23, 1894, Canadian Prime Minister John Thompson and his government made Labour Day, to be held in September, an official holiday. In the United States, the New York parade became an annual event that year, and in 1894 was adopted by American president Grover Cleveland to compete with International Workers' Day (May Day).

--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Tue, 28 Aug 2012 13:55:19 EDT

SmokChsr posted :

said by DKS:

Long range track suggests Isaac as a post tropical storm will ruin Labour Day Monday

It might, I wouldn't cancel any plans just yet. Besides I thought Labor day was an American Holiday. Ya'll aren't supposed to have the day off up there, get back to work!!! :)

Hurricane Isaac

Tue, 28 Aug 2012 13:49:07 EDT

SmokChsr posted : Issac is just about to make land fall out on the delta, it'll still be a while before he gets to New Orleans. His approach is almost a worse case location as far as pushing surge into Lake Pontchartrain. Even so as a minimal cat 1 storm, I wouldn't expected the surge to be near as much as predicted. This area has been in a drought, so the rain will help. The down side is it's mostly clay soil which can't absorb water quickly.

The front side of the storm doesn't seem to have that much water in it, waiting to see what the back side has to offer. As of now most of the moisture from Isaac is on the Carloina coast.

I heard you need some rain

Hurricane Isaac

Tue, 28 Aug 2012 12:56:51 EDT

SmokChsr posted : Yes he finally did it, at 1220 PM (EDST) This afternoon Isaac was declared a hurricane by the NHC with winds of 75 MPH.

Wouldn't ya know it he did this just hours after the edit button went away for my opening message..

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Tue, 28 Aug 2012 10:18:42 EDT

DKS posted : Long range track suggests Isaac as a post tropical storm will ruin Labour Day Monday and the last long weekend of the summer in Ontario. :(
--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Tue, 28 Aug 2012 00:16:46 EDT

SmokChsr posted : I can see this much, Isaac is zig zag'n across the Gulf. He's quite a wobbly fella, must have had to many margaritas while he was in Key West. As Burner said he's back to a "predicted" cat 1 at land fall. As of now he's still only a tropical storm, full force, but he needs just a bit (4MPH) more to make it to Hurricane status. That is expected to happen over night so we'll see if I need to change the topic in the morning. He has yet to opened his eye. The primary trouble he is going to cause is flooding. A cat 1 storm isn't that bad, of course it may seem bad if the tree fell on your house, but overall it's not going to just destroy everything in of it's path like a cat 5 can. Yes there will be major power outages, trees down (lot's of them) and other such things. The area Isaac is going into has been in a serious drought so the rain will likely be welcome, but preferred to have been over a longer time period.

In my area of NE Florida Issac is still making his presence known winds are still up rain bands have been tracking through most of the day. I recorded 0.98" of rain in St. Augustine.

And now what the NHC had to say at 11PM EDST..
The satellite presentation of Isaac has not changed very much during the past few hours. Infrared and microwave imagery show a strong band of convection...perhaps the beginning of an eyewall...wrapping around the south and east portions of the circulation. However... aircraft observations indicate that the convective band was open to the northwest and that the low-level center was displaced a little to the south of the rotation seen in satellite pictures. The minimum pressure has not fallen significantly during the past several hours and the NOAA and Air Force aircraft have not reported winds any higher than what was measured late this afternoon.

Therefore...Isaac remains a 60-kt tropical storm for this advisory. Isaac continues to have difficultly maintaining deep convection over the northern semicircle likely due to some dry air entrainment. Otherwise...environmental conditions should be conducive for strengthening until landfall. Isaac is forecast to become a hurricane overnight and NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than most of the guidance.

Isaac has been moving northwestward or 310 degrees at 9 kt. The track guidance has continued to come into better agreement during the first 36 to 48 hours of the forecast period. Isaac should move northwestward toward the north-central Gulf Coast where a break in the subtropical ridge is located. As a mid-latitude trough bypasses Isaac in a day or so...some ridging builds to the northwest of the cyclone. This is expected to cause Isaac to slow down as it moves inland. After 72 hours...the cyclone should begin to move a little faster toward the north and northeast as it moves around the western side of a mid-level ridge that slides eastward across the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. The new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and remains between the ECMWF and GFS models.

Isaac is a large tropical cyclone. A dangerous storm surge...heavy rainfall...and strong winds extend well away from the center and are expected to affect a large portion of the northern Gulf Coast. The threat of heavy rainfall and flooding is also expected to spread inland over the lower Mississippi Valley region during the next few days.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 28/0300z 27.1n 87.0w 60 kt 70 mph
12h 28/1200z 28.0n 88.0w 70 kt 80 mph
24h 29/0000z 29.1n 89.2w 80 kt 90 mph...on the coast
36h 29/1200z 29.9n 90.1w 65 kt 75 mph...inland
48h 30/0000z 30.7n 90.7w 50 kt 60 mph...inland
72h 31/0000z 33.3n 91.7w 30 kt 35 mph...inland
96h 01/0000z 37.5n 91.5w 25 kt 30 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
120h 02/0000z 40.5n 87.5w 20 kt 25 mph...Post-trop/remnt low

Read more at »maps.wunderground.com/tropical/a···cl9E4.99

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Mon, 27 Aug 2012 19:41:09 EDT

burner50 posted :

said by wth:

Latest is landfall as a cat 2

My employer has embargoed the area and is expecting it to be a Cat 1 when it makes landfall.
--
I'm tired of killing stupid people just trying to do my job and go home!

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Mon, 27 Aug 2012 17:38:44 EDT

wth posted : Latest is landfall as a cat 2

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Mon, 27 Aug 2012 11:57:02 EDT

SmokChsr posted :

said by KeysCapt:

Yep, projected to be a Cat 2 and coming ashore at New Orleans.

As with all things tropical, that prediction has now changed to a Cat 1 at landfall. All models still have it headed for Cajun country.

The satellite imagery showed it well right of the projected track over night, and now it appears to be crossing the projected path headed towards the left side of the track (almost due West). While it's interesting to watch, it's not uncommon for tropical storms to not stick to the game plan. I try to point these variances out, since often it will be an update or two before the NHC, will commit to an actual change. Somewhat like my GPS which will try to have me driving on the road it wanted me to drive on even though I've taken an off ramp. Eventually the GPS will give up and admit I exited, but it takes a while before it give up on its projected path.

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Mon, 27 Aug 2012 10:55:11 EDT

jabarnut posted : Yeah, and while this is no Katrina, I feel sorry for them too. I'm sure some of the memories are still quite vivid.
Even though this storm isn't nearly as powerful as Katrina was, it's very slow moving, and the rainfall amounts could be incredible.
I'm also glad they made it clear that the Superdome would NOT be a shelter...don't need that mess again. :hmm:

Oh, and I'm also glad you folks in the Keys got away relatively unscathed....looked a little hairy for a while there. ;)

(Edit)

said by SmokChsr:

...
KeysCapt, silly me, I thought you were in the Keys. Hayward how is Key West doing?

Actually I always thought that as well. But regardless, still glad you folks in the Keys got through this ok. (At least, from what I can tell from reports out of there). ;)
--
I had a life once.....now I have a Computer and a Modem.

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Mon, 27 Aug 2012 09:59:37 EDT

KeysCapt posted : Yep, projected to be a Cat 2 and coming ashore at New Orleans.

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Mon, 27 Aug 2012 01:14:36 EDT

SmokChsr posted : Isaac is through the Keys and into the Gulf. His Satellite images show he's getting his act together. Currently he is a running to the right of the projected path. Winds haven't increased much yet, I expect by morning they will start to increase.

KeysCapt, silly me, I thought you were in the Keys. Hayward how is Key West doing?

Gettin my grove on!

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Sun, 26 Aug 2012 23:35:18 EDT

HFB1217 posted : Looks like another one bites the dust for SW Florida we lucked out but I feel sorry for New Orleans.
--
*****aka The WIZARD *****A Founding member of Seti BBR Team Starfire***

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Sun, 26 Aug 2012 14:31:20 EDT

wxboss posted : The wind isn't too bad here and the rain isn't too hard. Just a good day to stay inside and relax.

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Sun, 26 Aug 2012 13:34:22 EDT

SmokChsr posted : Isaac, is way ahead of where he is supposed to be.. he's just South East of Key West right now. He wasn't expected to get to Key West until around midnight. It looks like he's about 10 hours ahead of schedule. Key West hang on.. in the next 2 hours you should see the peak of the storm.

I'm gonna Huff & Puff

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Sun, 26 Aug 2012 12:45:24 EDT

DKS posted : Another one in the pipeline...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Sun, 26 Aug 2012 12:34:43 EDT

sailor posted : It was this week a year ago that Irene caused so much misery and destruction in so many states...such widespread devastating historic flooding that took many by surprise.

I sure hope Isaac doesn't turn out to be as sneaky as Irene was.

Hoping everyone who could be affected by Isaac is taking precautions and remaining alert.

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Sun, 26 Aug 2012 08:49:46 EDT

KeysCapt posted : I'll tell ya what, about 30 minutes ago I thought Isaac was visiting Fort Lauderdale ... high winds, driving rain and trees bent over with branches in the street.

All the tracks still project it crossing the lower Keys and passing offshore of the west coast, but yeah, we will all get some effect.

[att=1]

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Sun, 26 Aug 2012 07:25:23 EDT

SmokChsr posted : Isaac remains poorly defined, even so he is building strength and moving quickly towards the Keys. he is starting to pull himself together and is starting to look like a real tropical storm. Squall lines are already moving through South Florida and all down the Keys. It's not going to be a good weather day anywhere in the Keys today. Hayward & Keys Captn better hang on to your hats, looks like it's gonna be a blow.

a bit more organized

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Sat, 25 Aug 2012 22:50:55 EDT

SmokChsr posted : As of now Isaac is still very poorly defined. It's definitely going to make some bad weather in the Keys. I'll try to do more on this one in the morning. Just looking at the satellite image it's very difficult to even determine the center of circulation. Even without being well defined there has been a rapid increase in convection in the last few hours. The Cuban radars are off line (several days behind) so they aren't any help, and it's not quite in range of Miami yet.

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Sat, 25 Aug 2012 14:32:43 EDT

wxboss posted :

said by MJimLay:

I'm located in Pensacola. I'd honestly be surprised if it's only a cat 1 or 2 when it hits. It seems like this time of year as soon as a storm hits the gulf, it grows overnight. We shall see however.

Ain't that the truth. I feel sorry for you guys. I lived in P'cola for about 4 years when I was in the Navy back in the early 90's and never saw one storm. Shortly after I moved well East, the bottom fell out!

Take care up there!
--
"I do not believe in a fate that falls on men however they act; but I do believe in a fate that falls on them unless they act." --- G. K. Chesterton

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Sat, 25 Aug 2012 12:55:10 EDT

wth posted : May become a cat 2 on Tue am.

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Sat, 25 Aug 2012 12:10:16 EDT

Dragasoni posted : We've had a few squalls off the coast last night and all morning. Not much rain, but the winds has been gusting over 20 mph since last night. The power briefly went out and came back on with a surge at 9:30 this morning.

I picked up the essentials from Publix last night including an 18 pack of beer :D

Stay safe everyone!

-Dragasoni-

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Sat, 25 Aug 2012 09:43:13 EDT

KeysCapt posted : The Navy track as of 1325Z still has the path well west of the Florida mainland.

[att=1]

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Sat, 25 Aug 2012 08:12:56 EDT

SmokChsr posted : I think the next Model run will be interesting. I'm expecting a fair shift to the right. Since 5AM Issac has been moving more northerly than predicted from what I can determine on satellite images. If this holds up expect a rightward shift in the projected path.

Hurricane Warning Up for the Keys!

Sat, 25 Aug 2012 05:59:28 EDT

SmokChsr posted : Isaac, Is now a confirmed problem! Overnight he slipped across Haiti and is on a course that will minimize Cuba's impact on him. He is predicted to go into the Florida Straights which of course means heavy impact on the Keys. I'm seeing a shift to the right side of the track, the East coast may not be in the clear yet either.

Hurricane Warning's have just gone up for the Keys, with Warnings and watches on up the East coast, and just a bit up the West side.

From the NHC...

The circulation of Isaac has remained relatively intact after moving
across the southwestern peninsula of Haiti overnight. Before the
center moved inland...hurricane hunter aircraft data suggested that
the cyclone had peak winds of about 55 kt. Assuming the cyclone
weakened a little after encountering the high terrain...the initial
intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 320/12. As a mid-level trough lifts
out of the southeastern United States...Isaac will move generally
west-northwestward around the west side of the subtropical ridge
for the next three days or so...and then turn northward late in the
period as a shortwave trough amplifies over the eastern United
States. There has been little change to the NHC forecast this
cycle...and the new track forecast is close to the middle of the
guidance envelope and lies close to the GFS and the tvca
multi-model consensus through 96 hours. By day 5 there is some
disagreement as to whether Isaac will turn northeastward ahead of
the shortwave trough as shown by the GFS...UKMET...and the GFDL or be left behind as shown by the ECMWF and HWRF. The NHC day 5 point is between the two camps showing a slow northward motion.

Given that the cyclone has fared rather well after moving across
Haiti...and that the track forecast has only minimal interaction
with Cuba...the intensity forecast after 12 hours has been adjusted
upward following the trend of the latest intensity guidance. Isaac
is expected to become a hurricane in about 36 hours...with
additional intensification expected as the cyclone moves into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico in a favorable environment. The new NHC
intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus aids through
72 hours and follows a blend of the decay SHIPS and lgem afterward.

The new NHC forecast necessitates the issuance of a Hurricane
Warning for the Florida Keys and a portion of the southwest coast
of Florida at this time.

It is important not to focus on the exact track of Isaac due to the
uncertainties in the forecast and the fact that Isaac has a large
area of tropical storm force winds associated with it.

Read more at »maps.wunderground.com/tropical/a···SAHFo.99

RutRoh!
Shooting the gap!

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Fri, 24 Aug 2012 11:08:45 EDT

MJimLay posted : I'm located in Pensacola. I'd honestly be surprised if it's only a cat 1 or 2 when it hits. It seems like this time of year as soon as a storm hits the gulf, it grows overnight. We shall see however.

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Fri, 24 Aug 2012 08:22:11 EDT

SmokChsr posted : This morning he's still down there, and still looks to be a bit South of where he's officially plotted. It also looks like he's going a bit slower this morning. The official track did move a bit to the left. But, if he's going slower that too may change. On the current official track he'll be breezing his way through Key West on his way to Pensacola. That's after he spends some difficult time over Cuba.

Bottom line Issac hasn't shown us what he's thinking yet, still a waiting game.

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Thu, 23 Aug 2012 05:59:16 EDT

SmokChsr posted : Still looking like a cat 1 hit at best, but don't take that to the bank. Isaac is still disorganized and weak. Until the storm gets stronger the computers have a hard time pinning it down. Yesterday afternoon satellite images looked as if Isaac was trying to split into 2 separate storms. As of this writing it looks as if the center is trying to reform to the South side of the projections. If that is the case it could cause a shift to the left .

Issac is spinning up and should give better indications of his plans in the next day or so.

NWS 5AM Discussion...

An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Isaac this
morning has found a poorly defined inner core with a large area of
light winds around a center...which is similar to what an earlier
NOAA research mission indicated. Radar data from Guadeloupe and San
Juan also indicate a poorly defined inner core convective pattern.
Rather than initialize the center of Isaac well to the south of the
previous track...I have opted to use a blend of the recon fixes...
satellite imagery...data from nearby NOAA buoy 42060...and a 06z
consensus forecast position from the GFS...ECMWF...and UKMET
models. The initial intensity was also decreased to 35 kt based on
data from the recon aircraft and NOAA buoy 42060.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/12 kt. The 00z
GFS...ECMWF...and UKMET models did an outstanding job predicting
the recent southwestward jog or reformation of the center of Isaac.
Those same models are also forecasting Isaac to make a sharp jog to
the northwest over the next 12-24 hours...and then steady off on a
general west-northwestward motion through 48 hours. After that...
the global and regional models have come into better agreement on
Isaac moving northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge
that is forecast to develop after 72 hours across Florida and the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF model has continued its eastward
shift over the past 36 hours...and even the latest NOGAPS and
Canadian model runs have shifted well to the west across the
Florida Peninsula are now no longer considered to be outliers. Due
to less spread in the latest NHC model guidance...and the fact that
ECMWF has shifted closer to the previous forecast at days 4 and
5...the official forecast track is just an update of the previous
advisory track...and is close to the dynamical consensus models
tvca and tv15.

Upper-air data from St. Maarten at 00z confirms the dry air in the
mid-levels of the atmosphere between 600 and 300 mb as alluded to
in previous discussions. This layer of very dry air has been
hindering convective development in the northeastern quadrant for
the past 3-4 days. However...the global models are in good
agreement on the dry air mixing out over the next 36 hours and the
inner core becoming quite moist...which should allow for some
steady intensification to occur before Isaac interacts with the
mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. Given the impressive upper-level
outflow pattern that the cyclone has developed...Isaac is still
expected to become a hurricane by 36 hours. After that...however...
the the primary impediment to strengthening will be the interaction
with the land masses of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. How much the
inner core of Isaac is disrupted while over land will determine
just how much re-strengthening will occur once the center moves
back over water after 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast and is in reasonable agreement
with the decay-SHIPS and lgem intensity models.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 23/0900z 15.3n 64.0w 35 kt 40 mph
12h 23/1800z 16.2n 65.9w 40 kt 45 mph
24h 24/0600z 16.9n 68.4w 50 kt 60 mph
36h 24/1800z 17.8n 71.1w 65 kt 75 mph
48h 25/0600z 19.1n 73.4w 55 kt 65 mph
72h 26/0600z 21.8n 77.4w 60 kt 70 mph...inland
96h 27/0600z 24.4n 80.9w 65 kt 75 mph...over water
120h 28/0600z 27.4n 83.7w 70 kt 80 mph

$$
forecaster Stewart

Looks like it still likes Florida

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Wed, 22 Aug 2012 18:50:57 EDT

MJimLay posted : Isaac is really starting to remind me of Hurricane Erin of 1995. I was just 11 years old at the time and still remember it like yesterday....

Re: Tropical Storm Isaac

Wed, 22 Aug 2012 02:53:52 EDT

Hayward posted : Looking more and more like its going to hook east...

But watch out Homestead you may be getting your 20th anniversary storm. (Though by all forecasts looking to be far tamer than Andrew was.)

And I know we are supposed to politically hate Cuba but with its eastern mountains spares Key West from a lot of stuff coming from south of it.

One exception that hit Key West was Georges in 1998 which litterally hit the eastern tip of Cuba and glanced into the FL Straits right for us instead of sliding under Cuba, or severely dimished plowing through it for a while. Even before it was a prison why I would not want to be stationed at Gitmo.

In 19 years while many mostly tropical or 1-min2 storms, Georges was near three an the only time I have seen an eye... it really did go right over us...which beat up as we were... Big Pine on the N-S eastern bad side NEVER saw a break for the entire 16 hours. Man htat storm crawled through here.But then made a speedy b-line for the N Gulf coast. Actually was the NO warning they never headed.

After Katrina unexpectedly passed through here (fost time no tourist evac that unexpected) and sat in the So Gulf gatherng stength for a couple of a days, tried to tell people (we are never leaving) to take it unexpectedly serously... this is no girl to play with.

And KW is much the same... evacuating Unlike NO mainland is hard and might be headng right into the storm if coming fro the east... but imminent and over cat 2 most are outta here.

Especiallly after Wilma which was not not actual storm but high tide shallow FL Bay surge backwash when initial surge that just normally sloshed around us made mainland and the water vacuum stopped and also thanks to Henry Finagler's railroad now highway... very few but narrow outlets from shalow Bay to Ocean but to backwash over. Here in KW storm was long over when the flood came.
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