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88615298
Premium
join:2004-07-28
West Tenness
reply to tshirt

Re: Almost there, Karl.

said by tshirt:

1}IF you go back to "UNLIMITED" useage WILL again increase at an uncontrolled rate, faster than the current plant "refresh" rate (hardware upgrade cycle) allows for.
2}it's great the price is plunging, but if you replace something today (say CMTS) expect a 5-year life-span, and "UNLIMITED" exceeds it's capablity in 2 years, CISCO does not upgrade it for free. It is cheaper, it's not cheap enough to run a 2 year replacement cycle at today's rates.
3}IF forced to provide flatrate ($) "UNLIMITED" , either the rate($$$) will grow exponenially year after year, or capacity will rapidly be overwhelmed leaving a nearly useless traffic jam 24/7.

Except ISPs are not really increasing caps. Charter has had the same cap for 3 years. Yes Comcast raised the cap. On their lowest tier it went up from 250 GB -300 GB in 4 YEARS. That averages out to a mere 5% a year. Surely you would agree ISPs can increase capacity by more than 5% per year. At that rate it will take until 2023 for the cap to reach 500 GB.

Even at only 15% a year the cap should 437 GB by now. Which you only get that or better on 50 Mbps or above. Which should have a higher cap than the lower tiers anyways. So logic dictates than the lower tiers should be 450 GB, 50 Mbps should be 600 GB and 105 Mbps should be 800 GB. And caps should increase at least every other year. Not every 4 years.


tshirt
Premium,MVM
join:2004-07-11
Snohomish, WA
kudos:4
Reviews:
·Comcast

said by 88615298:

said by tshirt:

1}IF you go back to "UNLIMITED" useage WILL again increase at an uncontrolled rate, faster than the current plant "refresh" rate (hardware upgrade cycle) allows for.
2}it's great the price is plunging, but if you replace something today (say CMTS) expect a 5-year life-span, and "UNLIMITED" exceeds it's capablity in 2 years, CISCO does not upgrade it for free. It is cheaper, it's not cheap enough to run a 2 year replacement cycle at today's rates.
3}IF forced to provide flatrate ($) "UNLIMITED" , either the rate($$$) will grow exponenially year after year, or capacity will rapidly be overwhelmed leaving a nearly useless traffic jam 24/7.

Except ISPs are not really increasing caps.

Bing! Bing!Bing!Bing!Bing! we have a winner.

Karl's contention, which I know to be incorrect is

"One, these caps (and especially usage fees) are not technically or economically necessary whatsoever."
when infact some level of control IS NEEDED (because you can't rely on user self-control) for economic and technical planning purposes.

And no they have not increased caps before, because the exoflood caught them all by suprise Heavy user hit the wall and everyone suffered, then the last 6 years or so by locking down maximum use, they (well some of them comcast, and verizon for example) tried 2 very different approache,s Comcast( Leading the Cableco's) did a massive D3 rollout and reached the point where they feel comfortable increasing the cap, and may (depending on what they learn) be planning regular increases.

Verizon originally hoped for a massive footprint wide Fios response but learned the hard way that it was too expensive for the take rate to support, and is now left with a limited area with many times more capacity than needed and a large area with rapidly ageing copper/dsl which lacks adiquite capacity in most areas and would require a fios like investment many times over to improve. In the meantime have had to dump much of their footprint they changed their focus to wireless type technologies and investments.
FIOS is great for those few that will get it, and google fiber seems like it will server those limited communites well too.
But it's obviously not going nationwide as a private investment, even in cherry pick locations it may not be profitable in a reasonable time frame that would interest public or private equity.
You would need VERY deep pockets, AND a very long timeline AND a whole lot of faith to jump on that boat.