The margin of error for these forecasts is over 30% for S. ON so it's no surprise that the forecast has changed for October. Nor is it any surprise that the margin of error is never reported by the MSM.
Where is that Arctic oscillation when you need it? -- Logic requires one to deal with decisions that one's ego will not permit. All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing - Edmund Burke.
Actually, there's nothing surprising about this at all. One is a seasonal outlook, the other is a monthly outlook. There's still two months to go.
And, for what it's worth, you've cried about the same changes between seasonal and monthly outlooks in the past, only to have the seasonal outlook pan out in the end.