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SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

Hurricane Sandy

Click for full size
Headn' North
Let's just pretend that Tony never happened and talk about Sandy a bit.

Sandy is looking like she may want to cause some troubles for the mainland. Watches and Warnings are already up. If she slips into the New England area, tropical snow (doesn't that sound odd) storms might be in the works.

NHC Discussion...
Satellite imagery shows that the center of Sandy made landfall over
southeastern Jamaica around 1900 UTC. There has been little
degradation to the satellite presentation since landfall...and the
initial intensity is maintained at 70 kt for this advisory. The
central pressure of 970 mb is supported by a recent observation of
972 mb at Kingston with 38 kt of wind. Aside from land
interaction...conditions appear favorable for Sandy to at least
maintain intensity until it moves across eastern Cuba...where some
weakening is expected. The hurricane and global models show the
cyclone intensifying over the Bahamas as it interacts with an
upper-level trough...and the official forecast shows Sandy
regaining hurricane intensity by 36 hours. After that time...only
a little weakening is expected as Sandy is maintained as a strong
cyclone with at least some contribution from baroclinic processes
through day 5...when Post-tropical status is indicated.

The initial motion estimate is 010/12...as Sandy is moving northward
into a break in the subtropical ridge. The guidance has trended a
little faster in the short term and so has the official forecast.
On day 2...a turn toward the north-northwest and a slower forward
speed are shown as Sandy interacts with the above-mentioned
upper-level trough. After that time...Sandy is expected to turn
northeastward as it begins to interact with a larger upper-trough
moving into the eastern United States. While there is still quite a
bit of east/west spread in the guidance at days 4 and 5...the GFS
has trended toward the scenario that has been shown by the ECMWF of
more interaction with the trough. While the GFS track has shifted
westward as a result...the ECMWF has also shifted westward this
cycle. The NHC forecast has been adjusted to the left as well...and
lies about halfway between the ECMWF and the gefs ensemble mean and
the FSU super ensemble at days 3 through 5. The uncertainty in the
long-range track forecast remains very high...and it is too early
to determine specific impacts for the U.S. East Coast north of
Florida.

Given the new NHC forecast...a Hurricane Warning has been issued
for the central and northwestern Bahamas...and a Tropical Storm
Warning has been issued for a portion of the East Coast of the
Florida Peninsula.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 24/2100z 18.3n 76.6w 70 kt 80 mph
12h 25/0600z 20.3n 76.3w 70 kt 80 mph...inland
24h 25/1800z 23.5n 76.3w 60 kt 70 mph...over water
36h 26/0600z 25.8n 76.8w 65 kt 75 mph
48h 26/1800z 27.3n 77.3w 65 kt 75 mph
72h 27/1800z 30.0n 76.0w 60 kt 70 mph
96h 28/1800z 33.5n 72.5w 60 kt 70 mph
120h 29/1800z 37.0n 70.5w 60 kt 70 mph...Post-tropical

$$
forecaster Brennan


Hayward
K A R - 1 2 0 C
Premium
join:2000-07-13
Key West, FL
kudos:1

1 recommendation

And she hasn't cleared FL yet and the Weather Channel is already in the lets scare the shit out of NYC mode already
--



SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr
Looks like Sandy is going to put a hurting on the Bahamas. This morning she is a Cat 2 storm.
Sorry I didn't have time to gather more info..


ropeguru
Premium
join:2001-01-25
Mechanicsville, VA
reply to SmokChsr
Looks like the Northeast might have a fun Halloween.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

1 recommendation

reply to Hayward
said by Hayward:

And she hasn't cleared FL yet and the Weather Channel is already in the lets scare the shit out of NYC mode already

I think this video sums that up very nicely.. It's a great video!

»www.youtube.com/watch?v=YePOr-ZyPEE


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr
Click for full size
I'll be a ziggin and a zaggin!
This mornings discussion from the NHC.

The structure of Sandy continues to evolve...as shear and dry air
associated with the upper-low to the southwest have displaced most
of the convection north of the center. Aircraft data show that
while the central pressure has not changed much...the pressure
gradient and wind field have broadened substantially. As a
result...winds from flight level do not appear to be mixing down to
the surface very efficiently...and the initial intensity has been
lowered to 70 kt. Sandy is expected to remain near hurricane
strength for the next couple of days. Afterward...some re-
intensification is shown as Sandy interacts with a shortwave
trough...given that the global models show the large cyclone
deepening offshore of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states. It
appears that Sandy will maintain some type of warm seclusion
structure until near the end of the period...although it is
possible that Sandy could become Post-tropical a little sooner than
indicated here.

The initial motion estimate is toward the northwest or 325/11. As
Sandy continues to interact with the upper-low it will slow down
today and tonight before accelerating northeastward on Saturday.
The NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one
through 36 hours and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models. Late in
the period...while all of the guidance shows Sandy turning
northwestward...there continues to be large spread in the exact
track. The ECMWF...GFDL...HWRF...and some of the hfip guidance show
a sharper turn toward the Delmarva Peninsula...while the GFS and
UKMET show a wider turn with a track farther north toward Long
Island. The official forecast continues to lie between the ECMWF
and the tvca multi-model consensus at days 4 and 5...and is just a
little to the left of the previous track. Users are reminded to not
focus on the details of the track forecast late in the period...as
Sandy is expected to bring impacts to a large part of the U.S. East
Coast into early next week.

Given the new NHC forecast and the expected growth in the size of
the outer wind field...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
portions of the coast of north and South Carolina on this advisory.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 26/0900z 26.3n 76.9w 70 kt 80 mph
12h 26/1800z 27.2n 77.5w 70 kt 80 mph
24h 27/0600z 28.3n 77.5w 65 kt 75 mph
36h 27/1800z 29.7n 76.4w 65 kt 75 mph
48h 28/0600z 31.4n 74.7w 65 kt 75 mph
72h 29/0600z 35.5n 72.5w 70 kt 80 mph
96h 30/0600z 38.5n 74.5w 70 kt 80 mph
120h 31/0600z 40.5n 77.5w 50 kt 60 mph...Post-tropical

$$
forecaster Brennan


Gemstone
Premium
join:2000-12-20
Long Island
reply to SmokChsr
Yikes!... My 85 year old parents are here on Long Island right now but are scheduled to fly back to Jacksonville, FL on Sunday morning... Think the storm will be past Jacksonville by Sunday?
--
Go Mark Martin!

Shady Bimmer
Premium
join:2001-12-03
Northport, NY
Many airlines are starting to cancel flights starting sunday from JFK, La Gaurdia, and Newark. It might be a good idea to call the airline they are using to check.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to Gemstone
said by Gemstone:

Yikes!... Think the storm will be past Jacksonville by Sunday?

Yep. it'll be past here.. Likely much closer to there!


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Tropical Strom Sandy

Click for full size
RutRoh!
It looks like Sandy is starting to make the East bend as predicted. In the St. Augustin area the winds are running around 25-30 right on the coast, other than the only real problem she has created is blowing salt spray on the power poles, along with a stiff wind and no rain. That combination has caused 4 or 5 power poles to catch on fire taking out power in areas along the beach.

The main issue remains what will she do when she gets up the country a bit. The Models are getting more concentrated on a fairly direct strike up there. Although she won't be all that strong she has the potential to cause some real problems, it this case more inland than in the coastal areas.

NHC Discussion..

The structure of Sandy has not changed much overnight. The cyclone
continues to maintain an area of deep convection near and northwest
of the center and a deep warm core. However...dry air at the mid
and upper level is fully entrained into the eastern portion of the
circulation. The central pressure remains steady around 969 mb...
but aircraft data suggest that the peak winds have decreased to
around 60 kt while the cyclone continues to grow in size. The
strongest winds appear to be located in the convective band west
and northwest of the center...where recent SFMR and dropsonde data
showed a large area of winds around 55 kt.

While a little weakening of the peak winds is expected during the
next day or so...diffluence associated with the upper-level trough
west of Sandy should continue to maintain a deep central pressure.
As Sandy interacts with a potent shortwave trough in a couple of
days...the global models show the cyclone strengthening due to
baroclinic forcing while the wind field continues to grow in size.
The NHC forecast shows Sandy again reaching hurricane strength at
48 hours...with some additional deepening possible before landfall
during extratropical transition. Model fields suggest that Sandy
will be extratropical by 72 hours and that is reflected in the
official forecast.

Sandy has turned north-northeastward with an initial motion of
020/09. The overall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged...as
Sandy will accelerate northeastward today and tonight ahead of a
deep-layer trough moving into the eastern United States. A sharp
northwestward turn toward the U.S. East Coast is expected after 48
hours as Sandy interacts with the aforementioned shortwave moving
into the Carolinas. Not surprisingly...there remains some spread in
the guidance in the timing and location of landfall...but the most
notable trend this cycle is toward a faster motion as the cyclone
turns northwestward. The NHC forecast has been trended in that
direction and shows the center inland at 72 hours. Otherwise...the
new NHC track is along the previous one and lies roughly between the
ECMWF and the GFS through 72 hours.

Regardless of the exact structure and landfall location...Sandy is
expected to be a large and powerful cyclone with significant
impacts extending well away from the location of the center.

Note that wind hazards for Sandy north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area are being handled by high wind...storm...and gale watches and
warnings issued by local National Weather Service offices.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 27/0900z 28.6n 76.7w 60 kt 70 mph
12h 27/1800z 29.8n 75.8w 60 kt 70 mph
24h 28/0600z 31.4n 74.2w 55 kt 65 mph
36h 28/1800z 33.2n 72.5w 60 kt 70 mph
48h 29/0600z 35.7n 71.6w 65 kt 75 mph
72h 30/0600z 40.0n 75.5w 60 kt 70 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
96h 31/0600z 41.5n 77.5w 40 kt 45 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
120h 01/0600z 43.5n 77.5w 35 kt 40 mph...Post-trop/extratrop

$$
forecaster Brennan


capecoddah

join:2005-03-18
Yarmouth Port, MA
kudos:1

1 recommendation

reply to SmokChsr

Re: Hurricane Sandy

That's Frahnkenstorm...


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr
Click for full size
Click for full size
Yes she is just barely back to hurricane status and all the models are staying in fairly close agreement. The Jersey shore people will have a bit of excitement. For those up that way, (provided the storm precedes as predicted) those who get hit by the Eye and just to the North side if it will get the worst of it. Once it get's inland it's going to depend on how fast she moves as to how much damage occurs. The slower it moves the worse the damage will be from both wind and rain. Intermingling with the other storm systems will also make it hard to predict how bad it[s going to be. As far as the Hurricane itself goes, you'll be looking at a cat 1 storm, most of the damage from a cat 1 is caused by trees falling on things. So expect extended power outages and to be stuck were ever you are until the storm moves away and they have time to clear the roads.

For those of us on the lower coasts we know what to expect, but this may be a new experience to many up North.

NHC Discussion..

The most recent Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft mission did not
find winds of hurricane force near the center of Sandy.
However...earlier dropsonde data indicated that winds to hurricane
strength were occurring well to the south and southwest of the
center...beyond the radial legs covered by this aircraft. Although
it could be generous...the intensity is held at 65 kt for this
advisory. Aircraft and dropsonde data later today should provide
additional information on the intensity of Sandy. The vertical
shear has decreased and the system has been maintaining a small
area of deep convection near the center. Therefore...there is still
some short-term potential for Sandy to intensify as a tropical
cyclone...especially since it will be traversing the Gulf Stream
today. In the 24 to 48 hour time frame...the global models show
intensification of the cyclone which is undoubtedly due to
baroclinic processes...as the system will be moving over much
colder waters by that time. The official forecast shows the
transformation to an extratropical cyclone by 48 hours...but it is
important to note that this has little or no bearing on the overall
impacts of this dangerous weather system. After landfall...the
dynamical guidance...and the official forecast...show rapid
weakening.

The last fix from the aircraft indicate that the motion has remained
nearly the same...or 040/12. There are no significant changes to
the track forecast reasoning for this advisory. As Sandy interacts
with a strong shortwave trough/vorticity maximum approaching the
U.S. East Coast within the next day or so...it should turn
northward. Afterwards...Sandy should turn northwestward and
west-northwestward in the flow between the vorticity maximum and a
highly anomalous mid-tropospheric high pressure area in the
vicinity of Newfoundland. The 0000 UTC runs of the ECMWF and GFS
models are in reasonably good agreement on the forecast track and
the official forecast is close to this guidance and the latest
Florida State University superensemble.

As noted in previous advisories...to avoid a highly disruptive
change from tropical to non-tropical warnings when Sandy becomes
Post-tropical...the wind hazard north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area will continue to be conveyed through high wind watches and
warnings issued by local National Weather Service offices.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 28/0900z 31.9n 73.3w 65 kt 75 mph
12h 28/1800z 33.2n 71.9w 65 kt 75 mph
24h 29/0600z 35.2n 70.6w 70 kt 80 mph
36h 29/1800z 37.7n 71.2w 70 kt 80 mph
48h 30/0600z 39.5n 73.7w 70 kt 80 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
72h 31/0600z 40.5n 77.0w 45 kt 50 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
96h 01/0600z 44.0n 76.5w 30 kt 35 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
120h 02/0600z 47.5n 75.0w 25 kt 30 mph...Post-trop/extratrop

$$
forecaster Pasch/cangialosi


Hayward
K A R - 1 2 0 C
Premium
join:2000-07-13
Key West, FL
kudos:1

4 edits
reply to SmokChsr
said by SmokChsr:

said by Hayward:

And she hasn't cleared FL yet and the Weather Channel is already in the lets scare the shit out of NYC mode already

I think this video sums that up very nicely..

That's hilarious, definitely archiving that one!!!

Thing was still on Jamaica, WX CH was already in doom and gloom mode even doing some NYC location stuff.
While it was a likelihood, at that point a week out, not exactly a certainty.

PS Pretty good Petula Clark sound alike.--


Jrb2
Premium
join:2001-08-31
kudos:3

1 edit
Please excuse me, I don't find anything about this Hurricane Sandy hilarious. I don't live in the USA though and I am not familiar with Hurricanes. However, I do know that this is life threatening for those who need electric to be able to breath and cannot afford a generator to produce electric. I could say a lot more about that, but I'd better keep my mouth shut.......


Sly
Premium
join:2004-02-20
Chuckey, TN
kudos:1
It doesn't downsize the threat of loss of life. It just exposes the corrupt media's disappointment when the ratings drop because said loss was not high enough...


EGeezer
zichrona livracha
Premium
join:2002-08-04
Midwest
kudos:8
Reviews:
·Callcentric
reply to Jrb2
Click for full size
No hype here ...
The storm is in no way hilarious, but I must admit I got a good laugh out of the parody, especially after seeing this glaring red "BLIZZARD" graphic splattered on the central Ohio local forecast segment.

NWS, Accuweather/WU, Intellicast have no mention of a blizzard for our area.

Must run out and stock up on beer. This is the perfect excuse.


DKS
Damn Kidney Stones
Premium,ExMod 2002
join:2001-03-22
Owen Sound, ON
kudos:2
There is potential for snow on the back side of the storm. Noted in Environment Canada's alerts.
--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.


EGeezer
zichrona livracha
Premium
join:2002-08-04
Midwest
kudos:8
Reviews:
·Callcentric
said by DKS:

There is potential for snow on the back side of the storm. Noted in Environment Canada's alerts.

The local guys and NWS are predicting possible snow here too, but nobody else is screaming "blizzard" or even using the term in our local forecasts.


Sly
Premium
join:2004-02-20
Chuckey, TN
kudos:1
Reviews:
·Callcentric
Click for full size
Sigh... they brought out the "B" word here. Bet we don't even get sleet.


Hayward
K A R - 1 2 0 C
Premium
join:2000-07-13
Key West, FL
kudos:1

4 edits
reply to Jrb2
said by Jrb2:

Please excuse me, I don't find anything about this Hurricane Sandy hilarious. I don't live in the USA though and I am not familiar with Hurricanes. However, I do know that this is life threatening for those who need electric to be able to breath and cannot afford a generator to produce electric. I could say a lot more about that, but I'd better keep my mouth shut.......

Unless you are talking about the truly medically impaired yes and should be evacuated sadly in NO Katrina (storm been many place including KW before and TRIED to warn northern GULF people how uncertain she was... again most thing Keys seen as frivolous but we know storms... and those to be taken seriously or dismissed... Katrina was an exception... and only time since I've lived here no tourist evacuation (That unexpected dive)... but proving never make them happy not evacuated, why is pool full of furniture and no power...hey still plenty of bars with generators and cold beer stilll whats your problem? And probably didn't have trip insurance any ways.

And no nothing funny about SANDY.... nor was there about IRENE but all NATIONAL attention was NYC...nothing even WARNED what was going to happen to the inland areas... hopefully local meteorologists did... but national coverage not even a blip.

Same thing here when one threatens BIG attention.... often not after... but two times there where Georges in 98 and Wilma flooding 70% of the island NO after coverage.

Because most times we aren't and infant storms.... that go on to do far more in more populous areas.... but somehow we were news worthy BEFORE???

The last time we were really threatened was IKE coming at us as a CAT 5, but weather tech made it clear it was going to plow into mountainous eastern Cuba and skirt us.

Nil impact (down to cat1-2 passing by 1 winds here) but went on to again strength and devastate Galveston for the second time in 100 years. Just as deceptive Katrina did to NO. You need to pay attention.

Again those in the north just aren't used to that... and the NYC area is an evil funnel potential storm surge concentrate.... again us a spec in the ocean just sloshes around us... vs pile up on mainland fall in the right direction (Wilma wasn't for us) And got the shallow FL BAy backwash at of course high tide, when she hit mainland and the sea vacuum stop and all that surge water sloshed back down the shallow bay... thanks to Henry Flagler RR landfill very little way out to sea. Very little storm surge coming nut when wind over we were flooded by the L end of vacuum backwash.

That will definately be a storm I will pay attention to in the future. virtually any other direction pass not a big issue.... in fact Katrina came of FL into the Gulf plenty of pace to push water....

Wilma at cat 3 approaching W-E north of the Keys was a huge L pressure watere vacuum dump... ever see that happening again I am out of here, and actually intented to be then but odd shit happened.

The BS HYPE more often than not.

Believe me we love modern tech... to better evaluate....

But for the MASSES think Key West is going to be wiped out....

And no follow up???

We are a little spec in the ocean, and surges easily slosh around us vs pile up/into mainland.
And mostly get the infant storms but see the character and try to warn... usually unheeded... Like Charley and Katrina are going to be REAL BAD... again knew that just how they unexpectedly passed us.

We are much more exception than rule but know what passes us like Charley and Katrina is going to be devastating, tried to warn others online to pay attention to, but sadly so few did.

Oh and if you haven't ACTUALLY watch the video.

--

Expand your moderator at work


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Re: Hurricane Sandy

Click for full size
Estimated surge chart.
It's a well known feature of tropical systems (at least to those of us that have them more often) Especially late season storms, that as the storm comes in temps will typically rise, after the storm passes their can be a very drastic drop in temperature. The reason being the CCW rotation and wide field that storm inflow comes from. Just to give an idea while Sandy was still well South of Jamaica her inflow was causing NNE winds in St. Augustine, over 1000 miles away. If you move that 1000 mile inflow radius to New York you can see that it will be pulling air in from over the Arctic Sea. As it it now that she has passed Florida our temperatures have dropped into the 50's.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

1 edit
reply to Jrb2
Click for full size
Salty insulators cause fires
Click for full size
Notice how the wind is pushing back the water
said by Jrb2:

Please excuse me, I don't find anything about this Hurricane Sandy hilarious.

Don't be afraid to say what you are thinking. Sandy is still a Hurricane, and should be respected as such. If she continues on her predicted track she IS going to cause serious trouble along her path. The point is, the American Media likes blow the storm way out of proportion. The big downside of this is that after everyone experiences enough exaggerated reports they tend to ignore future reports. If you had heard the news reports on Irene (last year) in the USA, they were literally predicting that New York City would pretty much be in ruins. Obviously that didn't happen.

For myself, I've never been in storm higher than a weak Cat 3, only a couple cat 2's and several sat 1's, along with a bunch of tropical storms. I simply try to give a non-exaggerated idea of what to expect.

Now I must admit that while Sandy was passing my area, yes I was out with a video camera shooting any damage or events created by the storm. So Yes I was out getting some storm porn myself, (and getting paid for it). In this area the biggest event was that several power poles caught fire and burnt up, due to the salt spray coming in off the ocean shorting the insulators without any rain.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

One more thing

I should have mentioned that Sandy is running just a bit to the Right of the official path, and hasn't made her turn as of yet. If this holds up her landfall may shift a fair amount North.


Hayward
K A R - 1 2 0 C
Premium
join:2000-07-13
Key West, FL
kudos:1

1 edit
reply to SmokChsr

Re: Hurricane Sandy

said by SmokChsr:

said by Jrb2:

Please excuse me, I don't find anything about this Hurricane Sandy hilarious.

Don't be afraid to say what you are thinking. Sandy is still a Hurricane, and should be respected as such.

Of course not and why historically I have gotten irked at people here (storm wise) cheering on storms aproaching the Keys because they aren't here.

ALL I said was this video NAILS the ridiculousness levels the weather media goes to exploit ANY storm.

And as the end of video says Irene did MAJOR inland damage the NATIONAL weather service NEVER mentioned hopefully local did.

Again national including WX CH once past NYC story OVER, when they real damage was just to come.

Likely you will hear much more of Sandy (besides last year BS) because its going to slam into heavily settled SUBURBAN areas not just sparse RURAL areas IRENE did where only a half million or so unimportant people lived. Then again many national historic landmarks washed away... besides the personal damage... but again half mill and how many actually not OTA not cable service or sat low angle in hill/mt country line of site viewers that don't see us ANYWAYS so who CARES.??
--

Expand your moderator at work


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Sandy gains a little more strength.

This morning they are finding Sandy with 85 MPH winds. She still has not made her turn, but still expected to. Only one computer model (BAMM) had her taking off to Maine. Keep in mind that any delays in turning will likely change her land fall location by quite a distance. The closer she landfall to NYC, the worse it'll be as far as storm surge. Tides naturally run on this high side this time of year when you stack a storm surge on top of that it's not a good thing. The way the bay's are in that area will trap the water exasperating the surge.

Inland trees will fall, power will be out for many areas, ie it's going to get rough. If your in that area just be prepared to be someplace safe for the next few days.

NHC Morning Discussion

Sandy continues to maintain an area of deep convection near the
center...with an eye occasionally visible on satellite imagery.
Although the satellite presentation of the system is not very
impressive...SFMR measurements...flight-level winds...and dropsonde
data from the Air Force hurricane hunters indicate that the winds
have increased to near 75 kt. Since the hurricane will traverse
the Gulf Stream this morning...and the shear is not too strong at
this time...some more strengthening as a tropical cyclone is
possible in the next few hours. However...the main mechanism
for intensification later today should be baroclinic forcing. The
official wind speed forecast is close to the latest GFS prediction
as that model should be able to handle the evolution of this type
of system fairly well.

Surface data indicate that a well-marked warm and cold front lie not
far to the north and west of the center of Sandy. As the
circulation interacts with these fronts...the cyclone should become
extratropical later today. Extratropical transition is expected to
be complete before the center crosses the coast. However...this
transformation will not diminish the overall impacts from winds to
hurricane strength...life-threatening storm surge...and flooding
rains associated with this dangerous weather system. Based on the
global models...the cyclone should weaken fairly rapidly after
landfall.

Center fixes indicate that Sandy is now moving northward or about
360/13...as it begins to rotate around a mid- to upper-level
cyclone over the southeastern United States. As it moves between
the cyclone and a highly anomalous mid-tropospheric ridge near
Atlantic Canada...Sandy should turn northwestward and
west-northwestward with some further increase in forward speed.
This track should result in the center making landfall in the
mid-Atlantic states this evening or tonight. After landfall...the
dynamical guidance shows a significant slowing of forward speed as
the system merges with the mid- to upper-level cyclone. The
official track forecast for this package is a bit faster than the
previous one...and close to the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

Interests are reminded not to focus on the center or the exact
forecast track of this system...since strong winds cover an area
several hundred miles across...and the highest winds will not
necessarily be near the center.

As noted in previous advisories...to avoid a highly disruptive
change from tropical to non-tropical warnings when Sandy becomes
Post-tropical...the wind hazard north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area will continue to be conveyed through high wind watches and
warnings issued by local National Weather Service offices.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 29/0900z 35.9n 70.5w 75 kt 85 mph
12h 29/1800z 37.8n 72.0w 80 kt 90 mph
24h 30/0600z 39.5n 75.5w 65 kt 75 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
36h 30/1800z 40.0n 77.3w 50 kt 60 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
48h 31/0600z 40.5n 77.5w 35 kt 40 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
72h 01/0600z 44.0n 76.5w 30 kt 35 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
96h 02/0600z 45.5n 74.0w 25 kt 30 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
120h 03/0600z 46.5n 70.0w 20 kt 25 mph...Post-trop/extratrop

$$
forecaster Pasch/cangialosi


Hayward
K A R - 1 2 0 C
Premium
join:2000-07-13
Key West, FL
kudos:1
reply to SmokChsr

Re: Hurricane Sandy

Now isn't odd I avoided that video for a few days because of the thumbnail looking rather serious when it5 was just the opposite...

And now I am getting hammered for appreciating this, and say damn they were right but VERY premature.

Agam living in the Key not sure how many storms were supposed to wipe us out but just pay attention to modern tech.... well no

And that could be day to day... again not the NYC BS when Sandy over Jamaica just might be...ok this tine proved true and studying it here if this the place would have reached same conclusion but not at that point.

But, again the IKE dive into mountainous eastern Cuba was a mater of just under 48 hours, just enough time to bail...but clearly no longer necessary was headed that way.... again sorry for Galveston.

Had several questioning me but had studied NASA/NWS sat paths for several days... this IS going to happen and it did.

In this case the long range BS proved true (maybe just models getting better)... but most often doesn't.

Oh and by the way why is it the most often right and reliable projection (for many years now) is the EURO model where there are no hurricanes??
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SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

1 recommendation

said by Hayward:

Now isn't odd I avoided that video for a few days because of the thumbnail looking rather serious when it5 was just the opposite...

As the old saying goes you can't please all of the people all of the time. I think the video is funny as well as an accurate portrayal of the media coverage of Irene. Bottom line, enjoy the video, and don't worry about the rest.

I think Jrb2 just didn't understand what we were laughing at, it's not the storm it's the media (of which I'm now an official participant), big difference. People often read things differently than intended, or they have a different opinion, no problem with that whatsoever. If we all thought the same the world would be really boring!
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