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SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Re: Hurricane Sandy

Click for full size
Estimated surge chart.
It's a well known feature of tropical systems (at least to those of us that have them more often) Especially late season storms, that as the storm comes in temps will typically rise, after the storm passes their can be a very drastic drop in temperature. The reason being the CCW rotation and wide field that storm inflow comes from. Just to give an idea while Sandy was still well South of Jamaica her inflow was causing NNE winds in St. Augustine, over 1000 miles away. If you move that 1000 mile inflow radius to New York you can see that it will be pulling air in from over the Arctic Sea. As it it now that she has passed Florida our temperatures have dropped into the 50's.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

1 edit
reply to Jrb2

Click for full size
Salty insulators cause fires
Click for full size
Notice how the wind is pushing back the water
said by Jrb2:

Please excuse me, I don't find anything about this Hurricane Sandy hilarious.

Don't be afraid to say what you are thinking. Sandy is still a Hurricane, and should be respected as such. If she continues on her predicted track she IS going to cause serious trouble along her path. The point is, the American Media likes blow the storm way out of proportion. The big downside of this is that after everyone experiences enough exaggerated reports they tend to ignore future reports. If you had heard the news reports on Irene (last year) in the USA, they were literally predicting that New York City would pretty much be in ruins. Obviously that didn't happen.

For myself, I've never been in storm higher than a weak Cat 3, only a couple cat 2's and several sat 1's, along with a bunch of tropical storms. I simply try to give a non-exaggerated idea of what to expect.

Now I must admit that while Sandy was passing my area, yes I was out with a video camera shooting any damage or events created by the storm. So Yes I was out getting some storm porn myself, (and getting paid for it). In this area the biggest event was that several power poles caught fire and burnt up, due to the salt spray coming in off the ocean shorting the insulators without any rain.


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

One more thing

I should have mentioned that Sandy is running just a bit to the Right of the official path, and hasn't made her turn as of yet. If this holds up her landfall may shift a fair amount North.



Hayward
K A R - 1 2 0 C
Premium
join:2000-07-13
Key West, FL
kudos:1

1 edit
reply to SmokChsr

Re: Hurricane Sandy

said by SmokChsr:

said by Jrb2:

Please excuse me, I don't find anything about this Hurricane Sandy hilarious.

Don't be afraid to say what you are thinking. Sandy is still a Hurricane, and should be respected as such.

Of course not and why historically I have gotten irked at people here (storm wise) cheering on storms aproaching the Keys because they aren't here.

ALL I said was this video NAILS the ridiculousness levels the weather media goes to exploit ANY storm.

And as the end of video says Irene did MAJOR inland damage the NATIONAL weather service NEVER mentioned hopefully local did.

Again national including WX CH once past NYC story OVER, when they real damage was just to come.

Likely you will hear much more of Sandy (besides last year BS) because its going to slam into heavily settled SUBURBAN areas not just sparse RURAL areas IRENE did where only a half million or so unimportant people lived. Then again many national historic landmarks washed away... besides the personal damage... but again half mill and how many actually not OTA not cable service or sat low angle in hill/mt country line of site viewers that don't see us ANYWAYS so who CARES.??
--

Expand your moderator at work


SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
reply to SmokChsr

Sandy gains a little more strength.

This morning they are finding Sandy with 85 MPH winds. She still has not made her turn, but still expected to. Only one computer model (BAMM) had her taking off to Maine. Keep in mind that any delays in turning will likely change her land fall location by quite a distance. The closer she landfall to NYC, the worse it'll be as far as storm surge. Tides naturally run on this high side this time of year when you stack a storm surge on top of that it's not a good thing. The way the bay's are in that area will trap the water exasperating the surge.

Inland trees will fall, power will be out for many areas, ie it's going to get rough. If your in that area just be prepared to be someplace safe for the next few days.

NHC Morning Discussion

Sandy continues to maintain an area of deep convection near the
center...with an eye occasionally visible on satellite imagery.
Although the satellite presentation of the system is not very
impressive...SFMR measurements...flight-level winds...and dropsonde
data from the Air Force hurricane hunters indicate that the winds
have increased to near 75 kt. Since the hurricane will traverse
the Gulf Stream this morning...and the shear is not too strong at
this time...some more strengthening as a tropical cyclone is
possible in the next few hours. However...the main mechanism
for intensification later today should be baroclinic forcing. The
official wind speed forecast is close to the latest GFS prediction
as that model should be able to handle the evolution of this type
of system fairly well.

Surface data indicate that a well-marked warm and cold front lie not
far to the north and west of the center of Sandy. As the
circulation interacts with these fronts...the cyclone should become
extratropical later today. Extratropical transition is expected to
be complete before the center crosses the coast. However...this
transformation will not diminish the overall impacts from winds to
hurricane strength...life-threatening storm surge...and flooding
rains associated with this dangerous weather system. Based on the
global models...the cyclone should weaken fairly rapidly after
landfall.

Center fixes indicate that Sandy is now moving northward or about
360/13...as it begins to rotate around a mid- to upper-level
cyclone over the southeastern United States. As it moves between
the cyclone and a highly anomalous mid-tropospheric ridge near
Atlantic Canada...Sandy should turn northwestward and
west-northwestward with some further increase in forward speed.
This track should result in the center making landfall in the
mid-Atlantic states this evening or tonight. After landfall...the
dynamical guidance shows a significant slowing of forward speed as
the system merges with the mid- to upper-level cyclone. The
official track forecast for this package is a bit faster than the
previous one...and close to the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

Interests are reminded not to focus on the center or the exact
forecast track of this system...since strong winds cover an area
several hundred miles across...and the highest winds will not
necessarily be near the center.

As noted in previous advisories...to avoid a highly disruptive
change from tropical to non-tropical warnings when Sandy becomes
Post-tropical...the wind hazard north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area will continue to be conveyed through high wind watches and
warnings issued by local National Weather Service offices.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 29/0900z 35.9n 70.5w 75 kt 85 mph
12h 29/1800z 37.8n 72.0w 80 kt 90 mph
24h 30/0600z 39.5n 75.5w 65 kt 75 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
36h 30/1800z 40.0n 77.3w 50 kt 60 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
48h 31/0600z 40.5n 77.5w 35 kt 40 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
72h 01/0600z 44.0n 76.5w 30 kt 35 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
96h 02/0600z 45.5n 74.0w 25 kt 30 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
120h 03/0600z 46.5n 70.0w 20 kt 25 mph...Post-trop/extratrop

$$
forecaster Pasch/cangialosi



Hayward
K A R - 1 2 0 C
Premium
join:2000-07-13
Key West, FL
kudos:1
reply to SmokChsr

Re: Hurricane Sandy

Now isn't odd I avoided that video for a few days because of the thumbnail looking rather serious when it5 was just the opposite...

And now I am getting hammered for appreciating this, and say damn they were right but VERY premature.

Agam living in the Key not sure how many storms were supposed to wipe us out but just pay attention to modern tech.... well no

And that could be day to day... again not the NYC BS when Sandy over Jamaica just might be...ok this tine proved true and studying it here if this the place would have reached same conclusion but not at that point.

But, again the IKE dive into mountainous eastern Cuba was a mater of just under 48 hours, just enough time to bail...but clearly no longer necessary was headed that way.... again sorry for Galveston.

Had several questioning me but had studied NASA/NWS sat paths for several days... this IS going to happen and it did.

In this case the long range BS proved true (maybe just models getting better)... but most often doesn't.

Oh and by the way why is it the most often right and reliable projection (for many years now) is the EURO model where there are no hurricanes??
--



SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

1 recommendation

said by Hayward:

Now isn't odd I avoided that video for a few days because of the thumbnail looking rather serious when it5 was just the opposite...

As the old saying goes you can't please all of the people all of the time. I think the video is funny as well as an accurate portrayal of the media coverage of Irene. Bottom line, enjoy the video, and don't worry about the rest.

I think Jrb2 just didn't understand what we were laughing at, it's not the storm it's the media (of which I'm now an official participant), big difference. People often read things differently than intended, or they have a different opinion, no problem with that whatsoever. If we all thought the same the world would be really boring!
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Jrb2
Premium
join:2001-08-31
kudos:3
reply to SmokChsr

Re: Hurricane Sandy

Hayward,

I may have misunderstood you; sorry.
For me, every victim of an Hurricane is one too much, no matter where that Hurricane happened.

Since you asked, I'm from a place where they try to keep their feet dry.

I'm out of this thread.
Stay safe everyone.



SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

1 edit
reply to SmokChsr

Post Tropical Hurricane Sandy

Sandy is now on shore, The heaviest rains are currently in Western PA, in the Pittsburgh area, and down around DC. The storm center is currently moving fairly quickly, but expected to slow down. I've heard reports that 100 million are without power. I Don't know the validity of that. OT for the power crews that's for sure.

I might also mention that she is now classified as a "Post-Tropical Cyclone" and still listed with winds of 80 MPH. The winds should start falling pretty quickly, but the rain, (and other precipitation) that's a long way from over.



EGeezer
zichrona livracha
Premium
join:2002-08-04
Midwest
kudos:8
Reviews:
·Callcentric

1 recommendation

reply to SmokChsr

Re: Hurricane Sandy - crisis map

Thanks to FizzyMyNizzy See Profile over in th eNew York forum for this link -

»google.org/crisismap/2012-sandy



Hayward
K A R - 1 2 0 C
Premium
join:2000-07-13
Key West, FL
kudos:1

1 edit

1 recommendation

reply to Jrb2

Re: Hurricane Sandy

said by Jrb2:

Hayward,

I may have misunderstood you; sorry.
For me, every victim of an Hurricane is one too much, no matter where that Hurricane happened.

Since you asked, I'm from a place where they try to keep their feet dry.

I'm out of this thread.
Stay safe everyone.

Well Netherlands you certainly know what storms are about just as we do on an island.

But SmokChsr makes a point too.... Irene was so OVER HYPED last year that many will not be taking far more serious Sandy as seriously as they should.

But that takes knowing weather and not listening to the hype.

In pilot training learned a lot about weather (required) and moving to the Keys it is of self interest to know.

The KW NWS office is two blocks down the street, and I have had several talks with them.

When a hurricane is threatening LAST thing I look too is media.... I look to data SOURCES and make up my own mind, learned enough about weather.

By the way a GREAT source for storm info (links to like EVERYTHING) is »spaghettimodels.com

--


wth
Premium
join:2002-02-20
Iowa City,IA
reply to SmokChsr

And on the backside of Sandy, look at those local storm reports.....

»classic.wunderground.com/US/WV/047.html#WIN