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DKS
Damn Kidney Stones

join:2001-03-22
Owen Sound, ON

DKS

[Weather] Tropical Cyclone Alert - Hurricane Sandy

It is rare (but not unheard of) for a hurricane to affect Southern Ontario. But there is an alert for Hurricane Sandy for much of eastern Canada.

WOCN31 CWHX 252345
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9:00 PM ADT THURSDAY 25 OCTOBER 2012
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= NOVA SCOTIA
=NEW= PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
=NEW= NEW BRUNSWICK
=NEW= SOUTHERN QUEBEC
=NEW= SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

FOR HURRICANE SANDY.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 AM ADT.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY INFORMATION STATEMENT TO DISCUSS THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF HURRICANE SANDY IN CANADA.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
HURRICANE SANDY NEARLY REACHED MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS LAST NIGHT AS IT APPROACHED CUBA. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 140 KM/H TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DURING THE WEEKEND SANDY IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. SANDY WILL BEGIN TO LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK, IT WILL HOWEVER REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE AS IT SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

SANDY WILL QUITE LIKELY IMPACT PARTS OF EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL, AS ALWAYS, DEPEND ON MANY CHANGING FACTORS OVER A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS. THUS, IT IS TOO EARLY TO MEANINGFULLY STATE HOW THE STORM WILL AFFECT PARTICULAR AREAS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WE ENCOURAGE CONSULTING THE FORECASTS PERIODICALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/ROBICHAUD/COUTURIER

Gone
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join:2011-01-24
Fort Erie, ON

Gone

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The guys in Buffalo have been going crazy over this since yesterday. It has the potential to have a rather significant impact even this far inland. If the timing is right it could potentially even be a significant snow event.

Of course, you wouldn't know that right now. It's 26C outside!

Anav
Sarcastic Llama? Naw, Just Acerbic
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join:2001-07-16
Dartmouth, NS

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How many of the models bring it to Ont, and how many bring it over NS??

Gone
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join:2011-01-24
Fort Erie, ON

Gone

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said by Anav:

How many of the models bring it to Ont, and how many bring it over NS??

Still a lot of uncertainty. Last I heard it come make "landfall" anywhere between New Jersey and Maine, and where it lanes will determine where the most rain (or even snow) will fall.

The big issue is not the storm itself, it's that the storm is going to combine with another system creating a "Frankenstorm" of sorts. It has the potential to pack quite a punch despite no longer being a true tropical cyclone by that point. We'll know more by the end of the weekend.

digitalfutur
Sees More Than Shown
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join:2000-07-15
GTA

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The main impact of this storm will be a powerful N'Easter as it combines with a cold front moving East over the weekend.

Since its remnants will be East of this front, the impact on S. Ontario West of Kingston will be minimal.
Walter Dnes
join:2008-01-27
Thornhill, ON

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Click for full size
CMC pressure+precip
Here's a pressure+precip forecast from CMC, issued this morming, forecast valid 8:00 AM EDT on the 30th. 961 mb at the centre; impressive.

Gone
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join:2011-01-24
Fort Erie, ON

Gone

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Yeah, the back-end is supposed to bring a lot of rain combined with some nasty northeasterly winds. There's been talk of the potential for flooding. That's why people around these parts - who are most certainly west of Kingston - are concerned, as we're right in the dark green zone of the west-side of the storm on that map.

Look at that though - snow!
quote:
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/…
UP UNTIL THIS POINT…THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A
GENERAL SOLUTION OF TAKING SANDY ON A GENERAL NORTH NORTHEAST TRACK
FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT…LARGE DIFFERENCES TAKE SHAPE AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG
BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES TRACK THE SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MONDAY…THEN RECURVE IT BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD LONG ISLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT
TRACKING THE CYCLONE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO DELAWARE/SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT…THE NHC IS SUGGESTING A TRACK
IN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS…PLACING THE CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
NEW JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH A MORE RIGHT TRACKING
SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE…THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS CONTINUES TO DECREASE
AND CONFIDENCE OF A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
INCREASING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS LOOK TO BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT…WITH NOT ONLY LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT
ALSO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS…STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS IN A MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION…
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THERE IS
SOME LIMITED THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

nitzguy
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join:2002-07-11
Sudbury, ON

nitzguy

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Shhh you....I don't want it to snow up here, but with it being cold enough, they're saying potential for rain/snow mix...high 5...so anythings possible.

mazhurg
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join:2004-05-02
Brighton, ON

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»icons-ak.wunderground.co ··· odel.gif

Link to Ensemble model, posted 1800Z 25 Oct 12

A Lurker
that's Ms Lurker btw
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Wellington N

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Might make for a heck of a halloween night. As a child I remember having to put heavy clothing under costumes one year... and snow. Not a lot, but just enough that the sidewalks were white.

Gone
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Fort Erie, ON

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»www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qp ··· fill.gif

»mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPak ··· ip_l.gif

Areas immediately adjacent to Lake Ontario and Eastern Lake Erie could be in for some heavy rain and wind, but there's still so much uncertainty that it may turn east, head out to sea and leave everyone with nothing.

NYC may end up being utterly screwed, though.

koira
Hey Siri Walk Me
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join:2004-02-16

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this could be a messy one indeed
accuweather forums have been all over this for a week or so
not looking forward to a week of wet dog walking
i'm checking my eves troughs for leaves in the AM
lots of moisture to soak into the ground is always good before the freeze sets in. lake water levels are too low and this will help
if it gets bad i will head north to grab the cottage generator for home

Gone
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Fort Erie, ON

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Click for full size
Gonna be winnnnnnnnndy!

ChaChaChange
@videotron.ca

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said by A Lurker:

Might make for a heck of a halloween night. As a child I remember having to put heavy clothing under costumes one year... and snow. Not a lot, but just enough that the sidewalks were white.

Over in this part of the world, as a kid, it wasn't often that it was so cold out. Now you see kids out with winter jackets passing Halloween.

But then again, as a kid, I would see snow on Victoria day (around May 22). You don't see that often, if at all, anymore

So over the past decades it's colder now at the end of Oct. Yet warmer in May. Slight weather pattern changes just shifting the months.

Then again, as a kid, I would walk out on the ice of the St. Laurence River between the Champlain and Victoria bridges (fell through only once!). Now, it never freezes over. Guess the freezing point of Benzene and whatever else is lower

I think I also recall decades past (An Ottawaian can correct me) the Rideau Canal opening for ice skating in Dec/Jan. Now, if lucky, I think it opens mid Feb.

DKS
Damn Kidney Stones

join:2001-03-22
Owen Sound, ON

DKS

Brett Anderson's analysis at Accuweather.
quote:
Canada impacts

In terms of Canada, latest trends continue to support the idea that the worst of this will be for the NE U.S. states, but expect some decent rain and some gusty winds from southern Ontario through southern Quebec and into the Maritimes the first half of next week. It may be cold enough for snow to fall aloft over Ontario early next week, but I think the low level temperatures will be too warm to support it based on what I see right now.

If the incoming trough ends up slower to the east then the "capture" gets even later and then Sandy could end up turning NW toward Maine or western Nova Scotia no earlier than Tue, but as I have been saying I think this is the least likely option right now, but certainly too early to write off.


urbanriot
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join:2004-10-18
Canada

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We have a tropical storm of clear skies and warm weather over here. I'm enjoying it while it's here...

Kardinal
Dei Gratina Regina
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join:2001-02-04
N of 49th

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said by ChaChaChange :

I think I also recall decades past (An Ottawaian can correct me) the Rideau Canal opening for ice skating in Dec/Jan. Now, if lucky, I think it opens mid Feb.

It depends on the year, and the weather day to day. I skated down the canal Dec 31st 1999 to spend midnight on Parliament Hill, and it has been open in late Dec / early Jan in the past decade if we have a cold December. If we have a moderate one, Winterlude runs the risk of not having the Canal open in time.

And we are Ottawans, or Outaouaiens.

J E F F4
Whatta Ya Think About Dat?
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join:2004-04-01
Kitchener, ON

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said by Gone:

Of course, you wouldn't know that right now. It's 26C outside!

Typical October weather....

Gone
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Fort Erie, ON

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said by J E F F4:

Typical October weather....

Yeah, the three fall months and the three spring months are like that - can be super hot, frightfully cold, or anything in between. There was one day a few years back when we had snow, rain, hail and a severe thunderstorm all in the same day back in St. Catharines. I just can't remember if it happened in fall or spring.
Gone

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If the storm takes a more easterly path, the chance of snow will increase for Southern Ontario.

J E F F4
Whatta Ya Think About Dat?
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Kitchener, ON

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said by Gone:

said by J E F F4:

Typical October weather....

Yeah, the three fall months and the three spring months are like that - can be super hot, frightfully cold, or anything in between. There was one day a few years back when we had snow, rain, hail and a severe thunderstorm all in the same day back in St. Catharines. I just can't remember if it happened in fall or spring.

I'm thinking that might have been October 2006 or so? I do recall having an October surprised that was followed by a very mild winter. Maybe not as warm as last, but pretty close.

Gone
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Fort Erie, ON

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2006 might have been right. It was around the same time that Stoney Creek had that tornado in *December* of all months.

ekster
Hi there
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Hah, I also remember one November (4 or 5 years ago) where, all of a sudden, it was above 25C for a day here.

Our favourite ice cream place started up their soft ice cream machine for that day only and we were sitting outside, in our t-shirts, eating ice cream. And the people who didn't bother looking at the weather forecast for the day were walking in their thick winter jackets, with hats and scarfs, looking at us weird.
NefCanuck
join:2007-06-26
Mississauga, ON

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Good grief, looks like I may have lucked out by putting on the snow tires yesterday. The shop called at the beginning of October and said that they were already booking into November then for tire swaps.

NefCanuck

urbanriot
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join:2004-10-18
Canada

urbanriot

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said by NefCanuck:

Good grief, looks like I may have lucked out by putting on the snow tires yesterday. The shop called at the beginning of October and said that they were already booking into November then for tire swaps.

Wow, I usually wait until the end of December. I skipped last year since we didn't get any snow.
NefCanuck
join:2007-06-26
Mississauga, ON

NefCanuck

Member

said by urbanriot:

said by NefCanuck:

Good grief, looks like I may have lucked out by putting on the snow tires yesterday. The shop called at the beginning of October and said that they were already booking into November then for tire swaps.

Wow, I usually wait until the end of December. I skipped last year since we didn't get any snow.

Thing is in the GTA (and Mississauga where I live) the drivers are bad enough as it is. I would rather not risk getting hit by yet another driver just because I can't make an emergency maneuver owing to the warm weather tires on my car (All seasons are really 3 1/2 season tires, a bad enough snow / ice situation and they're just hockey pucks)

NefCanuck

Gone
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Fort Erie, ON

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said by ekster:

Hah, I also remember one November (4 or 5 years ago) where, all of a sudden, it was above 25C for a day here.

I was working in the Falls back in 2006 or 2007 and we had trainers in from Saskatoon staying with us for a while. They'd fly over every two weeks. We were getting consistent 20C+ temps during December. They'd be here, basking in the warmth, and then would fly back home for the weekend and be in a foot of snow with -20 temps.

That was a weird winter. It was above 10C on Christmas Day and raining cats and dogs. About half-way through January winter came and bit us in the ass and I don't remember it getting above -5C until the end of February, with various dips into the -10 range throughout that time.

ekster
Hi there
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join:2010-07-16
Sainte-Anne-De-Bellevue, QC

ekster

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Yeah, I think it was the same winter. I also recall rain on Christmas day, and being disappointed overall as I couldn't even go outside to skate/play hockey until late January because the rain kept ruining the ice.
mr weather
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Mississauga, ON

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said by urbanriot:

said by NefCanuck:

Good grief, looks like I may have lucked out by putting on the snow tires yesterday. The shop called at the beginning of October and said that they were already booking into November then for tire swaps.

Wow, I usually wait until the end of December. I skipped last year since we didn't get any snow.

I skipped putting the winter tires on Mrs. Weather's minivan last year mostly because they were worn out and I never got around to buying new ones. It was outright luck that last winter was non-existent.

I just bought a new set this morning (Latitude X-Ice) but will be doing the swap out myself at home sometime in November. It's still way too warm for my liking.

Given all the weather discussions it appears Hallowe'en will be wet and windy this year.

DKS
Damn Kidney Stones

join:2001-03-22
Owen Sound, ON

DKS

And here we go...

WOCN11 CWTO 261719
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 1:19 PM EDT FRIDAY 26 OCTOBER 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= CITY OF TORONTO
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
=NEW= ELGIN
=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
=NEW= DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
=NEW= OXFORD - BRANT
=NEW= NIAGARA
=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON
=NEW= HALTON - PEEL
=NEW= YORK - DURHAM
=NEW= HURON - PERTH
=NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
=NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
=NEW= GREY - BRUCE
=NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
=NEW= BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
=NEW= KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD
=NEW= PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
=NEW= STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC
=NEW= BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK
=NEW= BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE
=NEW= CITY OF OTTAWA
=NEW= GATINEAU
=NEW= PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
=NEW= CORNWALL - MORRISBURG
=NEW= SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE
=NEW= PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA
=NEW= HALIBURTON
=NEW= RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY
=NEW= ALGONQUIN
=NEW= BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET.

WET, WINDY AND WILD WEATHER POSSIBLE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==

THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY MAY ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL POST TROPICAL FALL STORM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THAT THE STORM MAY FOLLOW AN UNUSUAL NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ONTARIO BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO HALLOWEEN. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM IF IT TAKES THIS UNUSUAL TRACK.

THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY MAY ALSO DRAW IN ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SOME WET SNOW TO FALL ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER GROUND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ONTARIO TO AREAS NORTHEAST OF GEORGIAN BAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON IF TEMPERATURES NEAR THE GROUND GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ZERO DEGREE MARK.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM.

MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE WOCN31 CWHX TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS AS WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED OR EXTENDED.

END/OSPC