O Canada! > Canadian > Canadian Chat > [Weather] Tropical Cyclone Alert - Hurricane Sandy

769
WOCN11 CWTO 270858
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 4:58 AM EDT SATURDAY 27 OCTOBER 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR:
CITY OF TORONTO
WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
SARNIA - LAMBTON
ELGIN
LONDON - MIDDLESEX
SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
OXFORD - BRANT
NIAGARA
CITY OF HAMILTON
HALTON - PEEL
YORK - DURHAM
HURON - PERTH
WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
GREY - BRUCE
BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD
PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC
BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK
BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE
CITY OF OTTAWA
GATINEAU
PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
CORNWALL - MORRISBURG
SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE
PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA
HALIBURTON
RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY
ALGONQUIN
BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET.

WET, WINDY AND WILD WEATHER LIKELY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL POST TROPICAL FALL STORM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. IT WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND TAKE AN UNUSUAL PATH TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

IF THE STORM CURVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WHICH A CONSENSUS OF NUMEROUS WEATHER MODELS SUGGESTS, THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ONTARIO TOO. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM IF IT TAKES THIS PATH. THE STORM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN LATER TUESDAY AND ON HALLOWEEN, BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOL, DAMP AND WINDY.

A NARROW BAND OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HALIBURTON HIGHLANDS AND THE HIGHER GROUND SOUTHWEST OF GEORGIAN BAY. IT MAY BE THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON IF TEMPERATURES FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK, BUT IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.

A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE PRESENCE OF A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. POST-TROPICAL STORMS INTERACTING WITH FRONTS CAN PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. PERSISTENT RAIN IS FORECAST ALONG THIS FRONT FOR THE TWO OR THREE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE ARRIVAL OF SANDY.
IT MAY AMOUNT TO 20 TO 30 MM OR MORE OVER THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NIAGARA, SOUTHCENTRAL ONTARIO AND NORTH TO GEORGIAN BAY. AN ADDITIONAL 30 TO 50 MM IS POSSIBLE WITH SANDY WITH EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OVER 75 MM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD 50 TO 70 KM/H LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO BEGINNING LATER MONDAY. OCCASIONAL SEVERE GUSTS OVER 90 KM/H ARE ALSO LIKELY, AS WELL AS STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF SODDEN GROUND, STRONG WINDS AND SOME RESIDUAL LEAVES ON TREES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF POWER OUTAGES DUE TO FALLEN LIMBS AND SOME DOWNED TREES ON SNAPPED WIRES.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO PUT THIS STORM IN PERSPECTIVE. THE MAIN REASON IT IS GETTING CONSIDERABLE PRESS IS THE FORECAST INTENSITY BY VARIOUS WEATHER MODELS, AS WELL AS THE HEAVILY-POPULATED NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT WOULD FEEL ITS GREATEST IMPACT. MOST WEATHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE STORM ACHIEVING AN UNPRECEDENTED LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE AS IT COMES ASHORE LATE MONDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE LOWER THE
PRESSURE: THE MORE INTENSE THE WINDS AND RAIN AROUND THE STORM. IT'S POSSIBLE THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE STORM STRENGTH. BUT EVEN IF THAT IS TRUE, IT MAY STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT STORM TO RECKON WITH.

MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE WOCN31 CWHX TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS AS WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED OR EXTENDED.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA

END
--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.

Looks like Sandy will blow itself out over Lake Ontario on Thursday.

»www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurrican···k_e.html
--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.

More bad news. Sandy has picked up strength again.

WOCN31 CWHX 271334 CCA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT CORRECTED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 10:34 AM ADT SATURDAY 27 OCTOBER 2012
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NOVA SCOTIA
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
NEW BRUNSWICK
SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

FOR HURRICANE SANDY.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

BASED ON RECENT RECONNAISSANCE INFORMATION SANDY HAS REGAINED
HURRICANE STRENGTH. SANDY WILL BE REACHING THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. A WIDE RANGE OF IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN CANADA.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: 28.8NORTH 76.8WEST ABOUT 350 KILOMETRES NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT BAHAMAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 120 KM/H.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH 17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 MB

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

SANDY IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT SINCE YESTERDAY BUT REMAIN WELL IN EXCESS OF 100 KM/H. DURING THE WEEKEND SANDY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OR NORTHEASTWARD WHILE REMAINING AT HURRICANE STRENGTH. SANDY WILL GRADUALLY LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON MONDAY SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SANDY WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INLAND ON THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST LATE MONDAY AS A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM. THERE ARE VARIOUS FACTORS INFLUENCING THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM. AS A RESULT THERE IS STILL A RELATIVELY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE IMPACTS OF THE STORM.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO, SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS BY TUESDAY EVENING POSSIBLY REACHING THE
50 TO 100 MILLIMETRE RANGE WHICH WOULD BE TYPICAL FOR POST-TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEMS. HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF THE MARITIMES. THE PRECIPITATION COULD MIX WITH OR TURN INTO SNOW OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ONTARIO AND EXTREME WESTERN QUEBEC AS TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM.
MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY ALSO BE SUBJECT TO STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 100 KM/H POSSIBLE. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT CENTRAL AND WESTERN QUEBEC. GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE MARITIMES. PEOPLE LIVING IN THESE AREAS ARE URGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO MESSAGES FROM THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE AND LOCAL WEATHER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE FUTURE WARNINGS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO CANADIAN WATERS WELL IN ADVANCE OF SANDY REACHING THE UNITED STATES COASTLINE LATER ON MONDAY. GALES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES, THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY AND WESTERN MARITIMES MARINE WATERS.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/HATT/ROBICHAUD/COUTURIER
--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.