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DC DSL
There's a reason I'm Command.
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join:2000-07-30
Washington, DC
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reply to AVD

Re: She's comming

A strong Cat 2 or Cat 3 could cause a "tremendous" storm surge. Not a moderate to weak Cat 1 that Sandy's expected to be at landfall. And if you look at my graphic, landfall is presently favored in central to southern Delaware, or Maryland from Ocean City to the VA line.
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Straphanger
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Jackson Heights, NY
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The issue is that we'll be in the NE quadrant with a southern landfall. This would lead to gale force winds out of the SE, pushing a lot of water directly towards the Jersey Shore and the south shore of LI. Coupled with the astronomical high tide, Sandy has a much higher storm surge potential than 4-5' we saw with Irene. It may not be the the 10-14' that some news outlets predict but it'll still be higher and in my estimation, will cause greater coastal flooding than what we saw last year.
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DC DSL
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The 6PM forecasts here were saying it may well be a TS by the time it clears Hatteras. If it remains on or close the currently preferred track (landfall along the central Delmarva) y'all up there likely won't get more than a 4-6' surge into Delaware Bay and western LI...if that. The front that's approaching from the west will drag the storm and the attendant wind field westward before it can stoke the sea sufficiently for serious flooding up there.

Of course, this all goes out the window if the track changes back to the earlier predictions for more northerly landfall.
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AVD
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Onion, NJ
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said by DC DSL:

Of course, this all goes out the window if the track changes back to the earlier predictions for more northerly landfall.

The last I heard is landfall on the Jersey Shore. The NY Harbor basin will amplify the storm surge. It can be higher than predicted. Last year Manhattan was spared by inches, a foot higher than last time will be disastrous for the City and Wall Street.
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AVD
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I think this is public (image is in realtime)




how to read: »www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/

(your tax dollars at work)
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AVD
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Onion, NJ
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»www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic···contents

latest update is landfall in Cape May sometime Monday (if I read it right)
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