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Krisnatharok
Caveat Emptor
Premium
join:2009-02-11
Earth Orbit
kudos:12

Ars Forecast: SSD prices will continue to slide

»arstechnica.com/gadgets/2012/12/···t-lower/

Interesting tidbit:

If history has anything to say we will now see prices per drive stabilize and the size of the drives substantially grow over the next few years." This conclusion jibes with the UCSD/Microsoft paper, which predicts that TLC NAND—that is, triple-level cell NAND, where each flash cell stores three bits in eight discrete voltage levels—will top out at a 6.5nm process size and hold a maximum of 1,700GB per chip. An eight-chip drive, as is common today, would wind up with a raw capacity of 14TB.... NAND density of this level is still at least ten years off, so the discussion is mostly academic, but it won't be that way forever.


--
Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.


koitsu
Premium,MVM
join:2002-07-16
Mountain View, CA
kudos:23
I look forward to the day of 1TB SSDs for affordable prices (maybe US$150 or thereabouts).

There is basically very little competition in the mechanical HDD market right now -- you have Seagate, Western Digital, Samsung, and Fujitsu (those are the only major players I know of at this point) -- while at the same time you have firmware fiascos and marketing-driven nonsense that claims they've solved issues they themselves created.

Thus to me it's funny (in a good way) that SSDs are in effect creating new competition in an otherwise stale storage market filled with vendors who are screwing around rather than making good products.

There is lots of competition in the SSD market. I can't even name all the brands at this point -- Crucial, Corsair, OCZ, Kingston, Intel, Samsung, Western Digital, Mushkin, Patriot, and SanDisk -- though I imagine some of those are rebranded (for example some Kingston models are rebranded Intels), and I'm probably missing a few vendors too.

That's why the sooner high-capacity affordable SSDs get here, the better. Of course, at the same time, there's still a lot of education that needs to be dispersed amongst the industry for understanding how to treat an SSD (as many aspects differ from that of MHDDs).

This is one area -- right now quite possibly the only area! -- of computing that I actually look forward to.
--
Making life hard for others since 1977.
I speak for myself and not my employer/affiliates of my employer.


Krisnatharok
Caveat Emptor
Premium
join:2009-02-11
Earth Orbit
kudos:12
said by koitsu:

There is lots of competition in the SSD market. I can't even name all the brands at this point -- Crucial, Corsair, OCZ, Kingston, Intel, Samsung, Western Digital, Mushkin, Patriot, and SanDisk -- though I imagine some of those are rebranded (for example some Kingston models are rebranded Intels), and I'm probably missing a few vendors too.

Agreed! And we, the consumers, benefit from that competition!

OT: Have you checked out the new OCZ Vector drives? Supposedly the first built on the new, in-house Indilinx controllers. They're very pricey (right above $1/GB)--do you see any compelling advantage to go for one of those over the more traditional SandForce-driven SSDs that are selling around $.80/GB?
--
Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.


Boricua
Premium
join:2002-01-26
Sacramuerto
reply to Krisnatharok
That is nice the SSD prices are coming down. I was looking at getting two, one for my desktop and another for my laptop. So far what I am not too thrilled about is them wearing out after so many read/writes.
--
Illegal aliens have always been a problem in the United States. Ask any Indian. Robert Orben


koitsu
Premium,MVM
join:2002-07-16
Mountain View, CA
kudos:23
reply to Krisnatharok
said by Krisnatharok:

OT: Have you checked out the new OCZ Vector drives? Supposedly the first built on the new, in-house Indilinx controllers. They're very pricey (right above $1/GB)--do you see any compelling advantage to go for one of those over the more traditional SandForce-driven SSDs that are selling around $.80/GB?

I've looked at reviews of them (specifically Vertex 4), and "they look fast", but I was a little wary of them given me raising my eyebrow over the performance of the 1.5 firmware: »Re: Which SSD drive to get?
--
Making life hard for others since 1977.
I speak for myself and not my employer/affiliates of my employer.


pnjunction
Teksavvy Extreme
Premium
join:2008-01-24
Toronto, ON
kudos:1
reply to Boricua
The same trends that make them cheaper (smaller lithography, multi-level cells) also reduce the number the write cycles, but I wouldn't worry about it unless you are really thrashing at it.

I have had a 120GB SSD in my laptop for almost a year now and have only written 1.6 TB to it. The Intel tool says lifetime is still 100%. If we assume good wear-leveling, minimal write amplification and 3,000 write cycles per cell, the lifetime writes could be 360TB.

I only use this thing for browsing and office work, it's hard to imagine racking up the TB's doing that. It could happen if you are editing video and such, so I might not recommend an SSD for that but you could probably still get away with it if you are replacing it every few years anyways.


signmeuptoo
Bless you Howie
Premium
join:2001-11-22
NanoParticle
kudos:5
reply to Krisnatharok
Is smaller lithography/feature size ABSOLUTELY a metric of write cycles? Are there things, design things, that can counteract the reduction in life span due to smaller feature size?


Krisnatharok
Caveat Emptor
Premium
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Earth Orbit
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reply to koitsu
I believe the Vector series are different than the Vertex 4 series: »Tom's Review: New OCZ Vector SSDs/ OCZ Barefoot controller
--
Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.


koitsu
Premium,MVM
join:2002-07-16
Mountain View, CA
kudos:23
Oops! Vertex, Vector, sigh... shame on them for naming them so similarly! (Okay, that's a miserable attempt at saving face... *sheepish grin*) I'll read the review and details later and follow up. Thank you.
--
Making life hard for others since 1977.
I speak for myself and not my employer/affiliates of my employer.


Octavean
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-31
New York, NY
kudos:1
reply to Krisnatharok
Prices are definitely dropping. More and more people are considering the prices viable and are buying SSD units, thus the frequent threads about them.

The last SSD I purchased I just received today. It’s a 500GB Samsung 840 and cost about ~$328 USD with no rebate. It also came with a free FarCry 3 download offer at an estimated value of ~$60 USD. In theory I could sell the game download offer and the cost of the SSD would have been about ~$268.

Da Man

join:2008-05-08
Hanover, PA
reply to signmeuptoo
said by signmeuptoo:

Are there things, design things, that can counteract the reduction in life span due to smaller feature size?

Better controllers that reduce write amplification. There was a recent discovery that can restore old cells.


Subaru
1-3-2-4
Premium
join:2001-05-31
Greenwich, CT
kudos:1
reply to Krisnatharok
This is good because I'm looking to buy in Jan at least 320GB Min


Boricua
Premium
join:2002-01-26
Sacramuerto
reply to pnjunction
said by pnjunction:

The same trends that make them cheaper (smaller lithography, multi-level cells) also reduce the number the write cycles, but I wouldn't worry about it unless you are really thrashing at it.

I have had a 120GB SSD in my laptop for almost a year now and have only written 1.6 TB to it. The Intel tool says lifetime is still 100%. If we assume good wear-leveling, minimal write amplification and 3,000 write cycles per cell, the lifetime writes could be 360TB.

I only use this thing for browsing and office work, it's hard to imagine racking up the TB's doing that. It could happen if you are editing video and such, so I might not recommend an SSD for that but you could probably still get away with it if you are replacing it every few years anyways.

With my laptop, I was planning on getting a second hard drive for the drive bay (as I don't use the multi-burner that much) and use the SSD drive as my boot up drive with apps. The second hard drive will have my movies and music for when traveling, which is what I'll be using the lappy for mainly and surfing the net at the airport. It will also be used for downloading pictures from my digital camera, probably adjusting the pictures for red eyes, etc. I was planning on getting a 120 GB SSD.
--
Illegal aliens have always been a problem in the United States. Ask any Indian. Robert Orben


Octavean
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-31
New York, NY
kudos:1
A lot of people are removing their optical drives in order to have an SSD and a HDD.

Too bad there is no hybrid solution like an optical drive with a built I HDD or SSD. However, with SATA controllers being one to one I don't see how that would work,....

Most people are OK with just dropping the optical drive anyway,....


pnjunction
Teksavvy Extreme
Premium
join:2008-01-24
Toronto, ON
kudos:1
I have thought about getting an HD carriage for the optical bay in my laptop. Nice thing about the business units is that it would be hot-swappable with the optical drive (although I barely ever use it). In the end though I don't really have a use for the space, I mostly travel within Canada and the US and get by on Netflix while on the road. I kind of wish I could put some extra battery in there like you could with the old school bricks.


Octavean
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-31
New York, NY
kudos:1
Personally I don't really like laptops. I have a fairly new HP 17" (I forget the model) which I use when I cannot use a desktop. If I could use my desktop all the time I would probably never use a laptop. I have it with me now since I'm out of town but I'm using my iPad more and more for casual stuff.

If I were looking for a new laptop I would probably look for one with a mSATA slot so that I could have an SSD, HDD and optical drive. Admittedly I don't use an optical drive that much but I'd rather have it and not need it then need it and not have it.