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ccclark

@astound.net

[General] June 15, 2018?

Interesting IEEE interview about an infrastructure change underway:

»spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/teleco···n=122712

Think this will go smoothly? Will they keep the target date?


PX Eliezer7
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Re: [General] June 15, 2018

When I first saw your headline I thought that this was the new calculated date for the Mayans.

It was quite a shock.

Think this will go smoothly? Will they keep the target date?

Near the end of [Blazing Saddles] this dialog occurs:

[Bart is bidding farewell to the people of Rock Ridge]

Bart: Work here is done. I'm needed elsewhere now. I'm needed wherever outlaws rule the West, wherever innocent women and children are afraid to walk the streets, wherever a man cannot live in simple dignity, wherever a people cry out for justice.

Crowd: [in unison] BULL-SHIT!



ccclark

@astound.net

Not sure what you mean with the Blazing Saddles reference. Are you saying that this replacement of the underlying switched network structure is already done and it is bullshit?


PX Eliezer7
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1 edit

said by ccclark :

Not sure what you mean with the Blazing Saddles reference. Are you saying that this replacement of the underlying switched network structure is already done and it is bullshit?

I'm saying:

1) It's just bull.

2) This is a Daniel Berninger vehicle. Actually this is redundant with (1). 'Nuff said.

3) Did you read the comments following the article you linked to? Almost every person was negative, raising objections relating to reliability, security, cost, practicality, etc.

4) The telephone landscape is even more diverse than it used to be. Even if AT&T, Verizon, and CenturyTel agree on something (which is far from certain because Wall Street looks to the short term) there are a lot of other players involved.

5) I point out to you also the extreme lack of progress with IPv6, and for that matter that this country can't even adopt the metric system (except for one highway in Delaware).

Old "Benny Hill" routine, paraphrased:

Reverend: I'm lost, can you please tell me how to get to the post office?

Biker guy: Well, just go two blocks up this street, turn right at the crack house, turn left at the cathouse, and you'll see it.

Reverend: My son, leave your evil life. Follow me, and I will lead you to the Kingdom of Heaven.

Biker guy: Follow you to the Kingdom of Heaven ?! You don't even know where the bleedin' post office is !

Thus my view of Mr. Berninger in 2012/2013.


mgraves1
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reply to ccclark

Re: [General] June 15, 2018?

I believe that Mr Berninger is operating in what is largely the political and/or regulatory domains.

There are many, many good, sound reasons why all IP networks make good business sense for the incumbent players. I don't think that there's much of a technical argument for why TDM gear won't be retired in the coming years.


PX Eliezer7
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Re: [General] June 15, 2018

That is likely to be the case over the longer term.

But the OP asks, will it be done in the next 5 1/2 years (that date being just under 5 1/2 years from now)....

....the answer to THAT question is [no].

said by mgraves1:

I don't think that there's much of a technical argument for why TDM gear won't be retired in the coming years.

TDM gear [will] get more expensive and difficult to maintain.

However, until it becomes more expensive than the cost for conversion, the factors of inertia and finance will be powerful forces to slow down the change.

----------------------------------------------------

The flow of technology is not always smooth.

The US Senate tried to ban dial telephones in 1930, saying they were too hard for Senators to use.

You may not believe that, but it's in the Senate's own official website.
»www.senate.gov/artandhistory/his···ones.htm


ccclark

@astound.net
reply to PX Eliezer7

said by PX Eliezer7:

2) This is a Daniel Berninger vehicle. Actually this is redundant with (1). 'Nuff said.

You say Berninger's name with considerable venom. I'm just a home VOIP user and not an industry insider. I've never heard of him. Does this guy have a long history of lies that has pissed you off and I should be aware of?

said by PX Eliezer7:

3) Did you read the comments following the article you linked to? Almost every person was negative, raising objections relating to reliability, security, cost, practicality, etc.

I did read the comments in the at the tail end of the IEEE article, but they appeared to me to center mostly around the "last mile" issue of maintaining basic service (dial tone) if the power goes out. I thought they missed the point about these changes occurring internal to the switched network ***BEHIND*** the last mile. Does the consolidation of central offices (the real estate "windfall") imply that the last mile copper would be ripped out or abandoned for everyone? Must fiber to the curb necessarily omit the power aspect? Couldn't the cable to the user's phone/modem end up being something akin to a USB cable that bundles power and data?

I thought a more interesting point in the IEEE comments was about the regulatory aspect. That pressing to have all their network services be classified as unregulated broadband (FCC Type II?) so that the major carriers can get out from being regulated telecom.

garys_2k
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I think the idea is to eliminate the copper runs from each premises to the Central Office. Those CO's usually have diesel generators that supply the loop current powering the customers' phones (simple phones, not wireless or those that need to be plugged into a wall wart).

If you eliminate the copper you eliminate the ability to centrally power the customers' equipment, so no more days-long power outage phone use. Most customers that have fiber may have a few hours of backup use, run by batteries in their local equipment, if the power is out. Same for subscribers to cable company phones or VoIP users. You may be able to run a backup generator at your house for days but unless all the upstream stuff is powered, too, your phone will still be dead.


PX Eliezer7
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reply to ccclark

You raise many interesting points and issues.

I can only say relating to your original question that this changeover will not be complete, not even substantially complete, by June 2018.

---------------

Mr. Berninger has been associated with Free World Dialup (innovative in its time) which later became FWD and then sputtered away.

Actually, they decided to start charging $ 30 a year but since the same thing could be obtained elsewhere for free, it just died.

See for example:
»[FWD] Free world dialup

Fast-forward:

A later project of his is SIPtoSIP (not to be confused with Sip2Sip) which charges people $ 100 a year for the same SIP services that you could get for free (including HD wideband G.722) from a CallCentric IP Freedom account or from a number of other providers.

Here:
»www.siptosip.net/

Note that that website has a suggested devices page, and the devices it links to are no longer current (such as a Gigaset A580IP). Indeed, the content of the pages seems to have been not updated for several years....



mgraves1
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Have you actually met Mr Berninger? Discussed things with the man? I have, and on more than a few occasions. I expect that the two of you merely travel in very different circles. In the regulatory space he's doing good work with the major ILECs, even if its value to you may not presently be obvious.

Michael



ArgMeMatey

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reply to mgraves1

Re: [General] June 15, 2018?

said by mgraves1:

I believe that Mr Berninger is operating in what is largely the political and/or regulatory domains.

This is a key observation. He failed as an entrepreneur, at least in the areas with which I am familiar, but he has some good ideas and perspective.

It's safe to assume he learned a lot through his failures and moved on to a less cutthroat undertaking that lets him spend more time thinking and less time treading water.
--
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PX Eliezer7
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reply to mgraves1

Re: [General] June 15, 2018

said by mgraves1:

In the regulatory space he's doing good work with the major ILECs, even if its value to you may not presently be obvious.

I am glad to hear that, and wish him success.

But this whole project has previously been discussed here.
»(Ooma) Voice Communications Exchange (VCXC)

In that thread, it was discussed that this "committee" requires payment of $10,000 per MONTH per COMPANY.

This committee does NOT actually provide any phone equipment or such, they just TALK and make REPORTS and RECOMMENDATIONS.

Sort of like the United Nations....

Now, consider the finances of this committee:

$10,000 a month multiplied by 12 months multiplied by about 45 companies who are members is well over 5 million dollars a year.

I may be an ignorant dope, but that seems like a lot of money to spend on coffee....

Especially when the biggest players (AT&T and Verizon) have huge in-house engineering and business staffs of their own.

So is this really needed, or is it like the fairy tale [The Emperor's New Clothes]?

We will see.

Best of luck to those involved.


mgraves1
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said by PX Eliezer7:

$10,000 a month multiplied by 12 months multiplied by about 45 companies who are members is well over 5 million dollars a year.

I may be an ignorant dope, but that seems like a lot of money to spend on coffee....

I expect that VCXC is a lot like USTelecom or CTIA, but As an industry trade association with a legal and regulatory focus it has a requirement for lawyers and lobbyists...hence the need for funds.
--
Michael Graves
Houston TX
»www.mgraves.org

PX Eliezer7
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Good points, and as I said I do wish them luck.

But they depart from other industry and trade groups in charging the same dues to every company [regardless of size].

Most industry groups---even down to local Chambers of Commerce---charge based on relative annual revenue, or numbers of employees, or some such.

Charging the same 10,000 monthly dues to a huge company like AT&T as to a tiny company like ZipDX, just seems strange.

As Trev said in the older thread, such a policy ensures that the smaller companies will not join, or will drop out.


ConstantineM

join:2011-09-02
San Jose, CA
reply to ccclark

UK phone networks

When I lived in the UK back in 2005/2006, the voice quality of their networks was complete crap. I couldn't understand the person I was speaking with on the phone ever, and it had nothing to do with the accent, I presume they just use some really cheap codecs that get rid of all the sounds.

This was true with mobiles and landlines. Voice quality was absolutely horrible most of the time; sometimes the voice would outright sound completely metallic. I had an AT&T-branded Sony Ericsson mobile phone, and on AT&T the voice quality was always good, but in the UK with a local SIM it was complete crap.


PX Eliezer7
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said by ConstantineM:

When I lived in the UK back in 2005/2006, the voice quality of their networks was complete crap.

I'm not sure what point you were making in regard to the original topic.

Are you saying that the UK phone networks were bad because of:

a) Too much reliance on legacy systems and on copper?
b) Poor implementation of new IP technology?
c) Because the phone system used to be run by the British Post Office?
d) Because if the people accept poor dental care, they'll put up with bad phones?

Thanks.


mgraves1
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reply to ArgMeMatey

Re: [General] June 15, 2018?

said by ArgMeMatey:

He failed as an entrepreneur, at least in the areas with which I am familiar, but he has some good ideas and perspective.

I'm not sure that I agree about Dan being a failure as an entrepreneur. FWD was more of an experiment than a business. It was funded by other activities of the Pulver organisation. Noone else was doing anything similar at the time, which is why it was a success as an experimental service. It was part of the argument presented to the FCC in winning the Pulver order.

It outlived its usefulness to many people and could not be converted to a paid model. Does that mean that FWD was a failure. I don't think so.

Jeff Pulver and his team took some big risks in envisioning things beyond what the ILECs were even considering. Their impact should not be underestimated.
--
Michael Graves
Houston TX
»www.mgraves.org


ArgMeMatey

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said by mgraves1:

FWD was more of an experiment than a business.

That's fair. I'll just say he's probably finding more financial success as a pundit and policy guy than as a service provider.

The key exchange in the interview, in this respect, is,

... Even with the real estate “windfall,” that you call it, are the big telephone companies really going to make the big investment it’s going to take to phase out the old network and make everything IP?

Daniel Berninger: I don’t want to speak for the telcos. I can give you an analyst’s perspective...

Berninger goes on to talk about increased revenues and reduced costs, but there's plenty of risk for an established monolith trying to compete with the younger, nimbler crowd. Mainly, as has been widely commented upon, AT&T and Verizon do not want to become just a set of tubes that carry others' more profitable services.

So they can set that date, but rest assured that unless the ILECs see greater profit over the new horizon, they will play every conceivable card to keep things where we are today.

I realize that AT&T is on record trying to get out of the regulated POTS business, but one problem is that nobody is stepping up to provide a similar level of service at a reasonable price. That sets the stage for easy finger-pointing, if anybody should suggest moving along in a way that would be less profitable.
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OmagicQ
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reply to ccclark

I thought the phone network, except for the "last mile" was all digital already? What is this going to change?
--
...Who, What, When, Where, How... Why? Why Not?



Trev
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said by OmagicQ:

I thought the phone network, except for the "last mile" was all digital already? What is this going to change?

Presumably instead of dedicated circuits that go from one facility to another they will just start to use IP transit in more of a mesh set up.
--
Wondering what I do? Find out at »www.digitalcon.ca
Get your Obihai ATA in Canada.


mgraves1
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reply to OmagicQ

said by OmagicQ:

I thought the phone network, except for the "last mile" was all digital already? What is this going to change?

An all-IP network will allow all kinds of applications that are not presently possible using the dedicated circuits approach of TDM networks. Think various forms of HDVoice, multi-channel audio, video, etc.

In essence this is the final phase of the IP world swallowing the TDM world. Once internet access was:

modem -> analog copper line -> Channel bank -> TDM network

So the internet was effectively tunneling through the TDM realm. That situation has evolved from the network core out to its edge. At present the final phase is hindered by legal and regulatory legacy.
--
Michael Graves
Houston TX
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SCADAGeo

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said by mgraves1:

So the internet was effectively tunneling through the TDM realm.

And vice versa, too.

I seem to recall UUNET and a major carrier (AT&T voice?) signing an agreement in the mid-to-late 1990's to off-load peak traffic to each other's network. The peaks were almost 180 degrees out of phase at that time.


mgraves1
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reply to ccclark

Incidentally, when I finally listened to the interview I found it curious that Dan phoned it in. So much so that I created a short blog post built around a spectral energy display of the audio as it plays.

»www.mgraves.org/2012/12/ieee-spe···of-vcxc/

HDVoice is so much better for podcasts than the typical phone call.
--
Michael Graves
Houston TX
»www.mgraves.org