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Snakeoil
Ignore Button. The coward's feature.
Premium
join:2000-08-05
Mentor, OH
kudos:1
reply to FFH

Re: Prospect of slower iPhone sales punishing Apple's stock

my wife had to get a smart phone for work. Her employer stopped supplying them, so she had to get one.
She went with Verizon, and she jumped on the Iphone 4, even though the 5 was out.
Why?
Iphone4 is free with the contract.
Iphone5 would have added two hundred extra bucks to the over all contract, thus driving up the monthly payments.

And that is one reason why I think Iphone5 sales are down, having to compete with previous models that are cheaper So what if the Iphone5 has better hardware/gizmos, for many it's about price.

--
Is a person a failure for doing nothing? Or is he a failure for trying, and not succeeding at what he is attempting to do? What did you fail at today?.



dirtyjeffer
Anons on ignore, but not due to fear.
Premium
join:2002-02-21
London, ON

i could have got a free iPhone4 as well...instead, i paid the $180 for the iPhone5 simply because it will be 2-3 years (at least) until i replace it, so factoring in the monthly cost of the services, $180 is minimal to have something as state of the art as possible to ensure my satisfaction for several years.



haroldo

join:2004-01-16
united state
kudos:1
reply to Snakeoil

said by Snakeoil:

...
And that is one reason why I think Iphone5 sales are down, having to compete with previous models that are cheaper So what if the Iphone5 has better hardware/gizmos, for many it's about price...

Every company offers their products at varying price points...it's smart business. They're not losing out, since many of the people buying the 4 are doing so, mainly because the 4S and the 5 might not be in their budget. As such, either Apple lose the customer to another brand or they make a little bit less.
It's Marketing 101.
It's the same as Coke selling their soda in 64 ounce bottles far more cheaply than when they put it in a 12 ounce can, or when airlines charge a different amount for every seat on the plane.
Let each consumer pay as much as they want for the same basic product.
It's a brilliant move at it maximizes revenue to the seller


neuronbob
THERE ARE NO SHORT CUTS. NONE.

join:2000-03-30
Bedford, OH
reply to FFH

Pansies. I bought more on this minor correction. Who knows when it's going to be this low again.

Dollar-cost investing FTW.
--
neuronbob.com



haroldo

join:2004-01-16
united state
kudos:1

said by neuronbob:

... this minor correction...

Uh..., an almost 30% decline is anything but a minor correction. The 1987 stock market crash »en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987) was 22% (albeit in one day)


JohnInSJ
Premium
join:2003-09-22
Aptos, CA
reply to Majestik

said by Majestik:

It's in my Roth IRA. It's was the Roth I was day trading with back then. Less paperwork when day trading in a Roth IRA.

Transferred it to my Schwab Roth IRA two months ago.
All tax free.

Nice
--
My place : »www.schettino.us

Badonkadonk
Premium
join:2000-12-17
Naperville, IL
kudos:5
Reviews:
·Dish Network
reply to neuronbob

said by neuronbob:

Who knows when it's going to be this low again.

Tonight? Down 10% after hours to $462.64
--
How nice. This country is being run by a broken record repeating the same two words over and over. Cretin.


JohnInSJ
Premium
join:2003-09-22
Aptos, CA

said by Badonkadonk:

said by neuronbob:

Who knows when it's going to be this low again.

Tonight? Down 10% after hours to $462.64

Buy!
--
My place : »www.schettino.us


FFH
Premium
join:2002-03-03
Tavistock NJ
kudos:5

said by JohnInSJ:

said by Badonkadonk:

said by neuronbob:

Who knows when it's going to be this low again.

Tonight? Down 10% after hours to $462.64

Buy!

A column on what needs fixing at Apple:
»finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout···336.html
--
A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves money from the public treasury.


HiVolt
Premium
join:2000-12-28
Toronto, ON
kudos:21
Reviews:
·TekSavvy DSL
·TekSavvy Cable

said by FFH:

A column on what needs fixing at Apple:
»finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout···336.html

Well, I agree with the innovation part... Apple hasn't made anything spectacular since the iPad, and that's coming close to 3 years.

They need a NEW product. Making a "mini" of anything doesn't count. They keep focusing their resources on making the iMac thinner, when it doesn't need to be.
--
F**K THE NHL. Go Blue Jays 2013!!!


BellBoy
Steven Paul Jobs 1955-2011
Premium
join:2001-02-20
Los Angeles, CA

1 edit

said by HiVolt:

said by FFH:

A column on what needs fixing at Apple:
»finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout···336.html

Well, I agree with the innovation part... Apple hasn't made anything spectacular since the iPad, and that's coming close to 3 years.

They need a NEW product. Making a "mini" of anything doesn't count. They keep focusing their resources on making the iMac thinner, when it doesn't need to be.

What are you smoking? I'd like some...

Edit: Couldn't have said it better myself...from Gruber:
said by Daring Fireball :
iPod, iPhone, iPad. That’s the sort of Big New Thing that Lyons — and many others — are talking about. Only Steve Jobs could do those things, Tim Cook can’t. But look at the timeframe: iPod 2001, iPhone 2007, iPad 2010. Even during the era of innovation Lyons is pointing to, Apple spent six years between the first iPod and first iPhone. Again, why is it only Apple that’s expected to invent a time machine?
--
"When the day comes that anyone can bend our country's laws and lawmakers to serve selfish, competitive ends, that day democratic government dies." -- Preston Tucker, June 1948


JohnInSJ
Premium
join:2003-09-22
Aptos, CA

said by BellBoy:

Couldn't have said it better myself...from Gruber:

said by Daring Fireball :
Again, why is it only Apple that’s expected to invent a time machine?

If they want to support a $700 per share price, they are expected to innovate at a rate that is, say 35 times better than Microsoft. Or they can innovate more slowly, at a lower share price.
--
My place : »www.schettino.us

Badonkadonk
Premium
join:2000-12-17
Naperville, IL
kudos:5
reply to BellBoy

Apple really hasn't invented shit. The questions really should be, when will Apple set the next trend?



mozerd
Light Will Pierce The Darkness
Premium,MVM
join:2004-04-23
Nepean, ON
reply to FFH

The big boys are working their stuff
»Re: Apple v Samsung verdict in-coming



Alcohol
Premium
join:2003-05-26
Climax, MI
kudos:4
Reviews:
·Comcast
reply to FFH

Needs to drop to $430 a share so I can go on a buying spree.

Too bad they won't release a cheaper iphone. AT&T/Verizon won't pay these high margin subsidies for much longer. They're losing money pushing iphone instead of android/windows phone. Each iphone 5 costs AT&T $650.

Most of the iphones sold are 4/4s which is another bad sign for aapl. Verizon said more than half sold were non lte iphones.
--
I found the key to success but somebody changed the lock.



HiVolt
Premium
join:2000-12-28
Toronto, ON
kudos:21
Reviews:
·TekSavvy DSL
·TekSavvy Cable
reply to BellBoy

said by BellBoy:

said by HiVolt:

said by FFH:

A column on what needs fixing at Apple:
»finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout···336.html

Well, I agree with the innovation part... Apple hasn't made anything spectacular since the iPad, and that's coming close to 3 years.

They need a NEW product. Making a "mini" of anything doesn't count. They keep focusing their resources on making the iMac thinner, when it doesn't need to be.

What are you smoking? I'd like some...

Edit: Couldn't have said it better myself...from Gruber:
said by Daring Fireball :
iPod, iPhone, iPad. That’s the sort of Big New Thing that Lyons — and many others — are talking about. Only Steve Jobs could do those things, Tim Cook can’t. But look at the timeframe: iPod 2001, iPhone 2007, iPad 2010. Even during the era of innovation Lyons is pointing to, Apple spent six years between the first iPod and first iPhone. Again, why is it only Apple that’s expected to invent a time machine?

What's the problem with what I wrote? I said Apple hasn't had a spectacular new product launch since the first gen iPad, which is nearly 3 years ago.
--
F**K THE NHL. Go Blue Jays 2013!!!


Count Zero
Obama-Biden 2012
Premium
join:2007-01-18
Winston Salem, NC

The mini doesn't count? I think every iPhone launch has been spectacular since they've always set new sales records with each launch.



HiVolt
Premium
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Toronto, ON
kudos:21
Reviews:
·TekSavvy DSL
·TekSavvy Cable

said by Count Zero:

The mini doesn't count? I think every iPhone launch has been spectacular since they've always set new sales records with each launch.

The iPad mini is not a true new product, it's just a smaller version of the full sized iPad.

Yes the iPhone launches always set records, but the products themselves are not new or revolutionary as they once were... The competition caught up and are producting spectacular hardware themselves.
--
F**K THE NHL. Go Blue Jays 2013!!!


Count Zero
Obama-Biden 2012
Premium
join:2007-01-18
Winston Salem, NC

I've just never liked the feel & finish of the Droid products - they've all felt cheap to me when I pick them up at the AT&T/VZW or Best Buy stores. The UI may have a lot of bells and whistles but nothing that takes my breath away. That being said they are much better phones than the first generations were.

Apple still is selling 50% or more of the smart phones in the US on the two biggest carriers - and probably a fair share on the smaller carriers that have iPhones too... and with T-Mobile about to start selling the iPhone I predict another good year.



Alcohol
Premium
join:2003-05-26
Climax, MI
kudos:4
Reviews:
·Comcast
reply to Alcohol

said by Alcohol:

Needs to drop to $430 a share so I can go on a buying spree.

After more research the limit has been set to $445. Will most likely trigger today.

Their sales were lowest since 2009 but i have a feeling they'll do something interesting this year that'll push their market cap near 500B again. They still have $137B in cash.
--
I found the key to success but somebody changed the lock.


Alcohol
Premium
join:2003-05-26
Climax, MI
kudos:4
Reviews:
·Comcast
reply to Count Zero

said by Count Zero:

Apple still is selling 50% or more of the smart phones in the US on the two biggest carriers - and probably a fair share on the smaller carriers that have iPhones too... and with T-Mobile about to start selling the iPhone I predict another good year.

Most of those are 4/4s which is why their margins took a big hit this Q.

T-mobile will sell it unsubsidized. Nobody is going to pay $650 for an iphone on tmobile. They should have signed a deal with Tmobile years ago. Instead they're not renegotiating their sale price/quantity required because AT&T/Verizon/Sprint will want out. Apple is wrong here. They don't have the leverage they think they do.

I expect a major marketing push from AT&T and Verizon this year for non iphone products. They're tired of paying $650 for an iphone 5 when they can get a nokia lumia for $400 and Samsung galaxy for $500.

P.S. Most people are freaking out by Apple sales but this quarter was a week shorter than last years so market is overreacting.

Apple needs to figure out how to reduce the cost of iphone 4 and ipad mini and they'll be back to 500B+ values.


Alcohol
Premium
join:2003-05-26
Climax, MI
kudos:4
Reviews:
·Comcast

1 recommendation

reply to Count Zero

said by Count Zero:

Apple still is selling 50% or more of the smart phones in the US on the two biggest carriers - and probably a fair share on the smaller carriers that have iPhones too... and with T-Mobile about to start selling the iPhone I predict another good year.

Most of those are 4/4s which is why their margins took a big hit this Q.

T-mobile will sell it unsubsidized. Nobody is going to pay $650 for an iphone on tmobile. They should have signed a deal with Tmobile years ago. Instead they're not renegotiating their sale price/quantity required because AT&T/Verizon/Sprint will want out. Apple is wrong here. They don't have the leverage they think they do.

I expect a major marketing push from AT&T and Verizon this year for non iphone products. They're tired of paying $650 for an iphone 5 when they can get a nokia lumia for $400 and Samsung galaxy for $500.

P.S. Most people are freaking out by Apple sales but this quarter was a week shorter than last years so market is overreacting.
--
I found the key to success but somebody changed the lock.


Count Zero
Obama-Biden 2012
Premium
join:2007-01-18
Winston Salem, NC
reply to Alcohol

I'd love to know where you get your "data"

The mix of "new" iPhones to prior generation iPhones was not substantially different this year from any prior year. Per Tim Cook at the investor call: "ASP on iPhones was essentially the same YoY. Underneath that, if you look at the mix of iPhone 5 versus total iPhone, versus iPhone 4S the prior year, those mixes were similar. For capacity, we saw similar results in Q1 as we saw in Q1 of the prior year."

I looked through AT&T and Verizon's quarterly statements and I saw no breakdown from them between 4/4S/5 either.

You say no one will pay that much, but don't be surprised when people who hate buying phones under contract pick up a few hundred thousand of them from T-Mo. Essentially this is just going back to the original iPhone sales model which had impressive sales numbers for its time too.



RiseAbove
Premium
join:2004-01-30
reply to Alcohol

said by Alcohol:

said by Count Zero:

Apple still is selling 50% or more of the smart phones in the US on the two biggest carriers - and probably a fair share on the smaller carriers that have iPhones too... and with T-Mobile about to start selling the iPhone I predict another good year.

Most of those are 4/4s which is why their margins took a big hit this Q.

T-mobile will sell it unsubsidized. Nobody is going to pay $650 for an iphone on tmobile. They should have signed a deal with Tmobile years ago. Instead they're not renegotiating their sale price/quantity required because AT&T/Verizon/Sprint will want out. Apple is wrong here. They don't have the leverage they think they do.

I expect a major marketing push from AT&T and Verizon this year for non iphone products. They're tired of paying $650 for an iphone 5 when they can get a nokia lumia for $400 and Samsung galaxy for $500.

P.S. Most people are freaking out by Apple sales but this quarter was a week shorter than last years so market is overreacting.

you realize that the way Tmobile is going to sell the "unsubsidized phone" is through monthly installments like they do now with some of their phones. No one is going to have to, unless they want to, fork over the full retail price. Their HSDPA+ already blows most LTE out of the water in most markets. Here in Dallas it gets 25-35 down all day long and it burns through the same offerings from ATT and Verizon. I know this because I live here and I test out phones on all the networks for a living.

I think Tmobile is going to get plenty of people to jump ship because their prices.


Alcohol
Premium
join:2003-05-26
Climax, MI
kudos:4
Reviews:
·Comcast
reply to Count Zero

said by Count Zero:

I'd love to know where you get your "data"

The mix of "new" iPhones to prior generation iPhones was not substantially different this year from any prior year. Per Tim Cook at the investor call: "ASP on iPhones was essentially the same YoY. Underneath that, if you look at the mix of iPhone 5 versus total iPhone, versus iPhone 4S the prior year, those mixes were similar. For capacity, we saw similar results in Q1 as we saw in Q1 of the prior year."

I looked through AT&T and Verizon's quarterly statements and I saw no breakdown from them between 4/4S/5 either.

You say no one will pay that much, but don't be surprised when people who hate buying phones under contract pick up a few hundred thousand of them from T-Mo. Essentially this is just going back to the original iPhone sales model which had impressive sales numbers for its time too.

data is from quarterly reports and earning calls. Check vz earning call to see breakup. They obviously didn't specify in iphone sales but they said how many iphone sold were on lte. Less than half sold were on lte aka i5. Look for when they talk about their lte network covering 89% of the country. It was around there they mentioned lte devices.

People who hate contracts aka people not on family plan or corporate discounted plan will not be able to afford $650 phones. I phone will not do well on tmobile.
--
I found the key to success but somebody changed the lock.


Alcohol
Premium
join:2003-05-26
Climax, MI
kudos:4
Reviews:
·Comcast
reply to FFH

Out of Verizon's 9.8 million new smartphone activations, 6.2 million were iPhones. Out of those, Shammo said that "almost half" were running on Verizon's LTE network — that means that the majority of iPhones sold at Verizon were not Apple's latest model, but instead older iPhone 4 and 4S models. As for the remainder of smartphone sales, Shammo said that the majority were Android devices.

»mobile.theverge.com/2013/1/22/39···ne-sales
--
I found the key to success but somebody changed the lock.



Alcohol
Premium
join:2003-05-26
Climax, MI
kudos:4
Reviews:
·Comcast
reply to RiseAbove

said by RiseAbove:

said by Alcohol:

said by Count Zero:

Apple still is selling 50% or more of the smart phones in the US on the two biggest carriers - and probably a fair share on the smaller carriers that have iPhones too... and with T-Mobile about to start selling the iPhone I predict another good year.

Most of those are 4/4s which is why their margins took a big hit this Q.

T-mobile will sell it unsubsidized. Nobody is going to pay $650 for an iphone on tmobile. They should have signed a deal with Tmobile years ago. Instead they're not renegotiating their sale price/quantity required because AT&T/Verizon/Sprint will want out. Apple is wrong here. They don't have the leverage they think they do.

I expect a major marketing push from AT&T and Verizon this year for non iphone products. They're tired of paying $650 for an iphone 5 when they can get a nokia lumia for $400 and Samsung galaxy for $500.

P.S. Most people are freaking out by Apple sales but this quarter was a week shorter than last years so market is overreacting.

you realize that the way Tmobile is going to sell the "unsubsidized phone" is through monthly installments like they do now with some of their phones. No one is going to have to, unless they want to, fork over the full retail price. Their HSDPA+ already blows most LTE out of the water in most markets. Here in Dallas it gets 25-35 down all day long and it burns through the same offerings from ATT and Verizon. I know this because I live here and I test out phones on all the networks for a living.

I think Tmobile is going to get plenty of people to jump ship because their prices.

IPhone won't get those speeds. It doesn't support it.

Here's a pic from their i5 announcement.

»afr.com/r/2009-2014/AFR/2012/09/···_lte.jpg

You will only see good speeds on limited markets. Vegas being the only one I can remember.

Tmobile is building their own lte network. But they have some spectrum from att when the deal was rejected to do iPhone compatibility with.

Badonkadonk
Premium
join:2000-12-17
Naperville, IL
kudos:5
Reviews:
·Dish Network

2 recommendations

reply to Alcohol

I'm not certain that Apple people care about math and reasoning. It flies in the face of the distortion field. Although, given recent market moves, that distortion field seems to be failing.
--
"You lie!" Talk about an understatement, Joe.



neuronbob
THERE ARE NO SHORT CUTS. NONE.

join:2000-03-30
Bedford, OH
reply to FFH

Lots of short-term thinking I see here.

Meanwhile, I am buying what I can. $439 a share? Relative bargain compared to last fall, before the stock started to tumble.

With $137 billion in cash, Apple has plenty of $$ to innovate. Not worried about the intermediate future yet, even though Tim=/Steve.
--
neuronbob.com



Count Zero
Obama-Biden 2012
Premium
join:2007-01-18
Winston Salem, NC
reply to Alcohol

You're basing your whole argument on VZW's result? I'd look at the Q&A from Apple's call for a more accurate picture.

It sounds to me like the only "low margin" area is the iPad mini but will correct itself over time.