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Alcohol
Premium
join:2003-05-26
Climax, MI
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reply to Count Zero

Re: Prospect of slower iPhone sales punishing Apple's stock

said by Count Zero:

Apple still is selling 50% or more of the smart phones in the US on the two biggest carriers - and probably a fair share on the smaller carriers that have iPhones too... and with T-Mobile about to start selling the iPhone I predict another good year.

Most of those are 4/4s which is why their margins took a big hit this Q.

T-mobile will sell it unsubsidized. Nobody is going to pay $650 for an iphone on tmobile. They should have signed a deal with Tmobile years ago. Instead they're not renegotiating their sale price/quantity required because AT&T/Verizon/Sprint will want out. Apple is wrong here. They don't have the leverage they think they do.

I expect a major marketing push from AT&T and Verizon this year for non iphone products. They're tired of paying $650 for an iphone 5 when they can get a nokia lumia for $400 and Samsung galaxy for $500.

P.S. Most people are freaking out by Apple sales but this quarter was a week shorter than last years so market is overreacting.

Apple needs to figure out how to reduce the cost of iphone 4 and ipad mini and they'll be back to 500B+ values.


Alcohol
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1 recommendation

reply to Count Zero

said by Count Zero:

Apple still is selling 50% or more of the smart phones in the US on the two biggest carriers - and probably a fair share on the smaller carriers that have iPhones too... and with T-Mobile about to start selling the iPhone I predict another good year.

Most of those are 4/4s which is why their margins took a big hit this Q.

T-mobile will sell it unsubsidized. Nobody is going to pay $650 for an iphone on tmobile. They should have signed a deal with Tmobile years ago. Instead they're not renegotiating their sale price/quantity required because AT&T/Verizon/Sprint will want out. Apple is wrong here. They don't have the leverage they think they do.

I expect a major marketing push from AT&T and Verizon this year for non iphone products. They're tired of paying $650 for an iphone 5 when they can get a nokia lumia for $400 and Samsung galaxy for $500.

P.S. Most people are freaking out by Apple sales but this quarter was a week shorter than last years so market is overreacting.
--
I found the key to success but somebody changed the lock.


Count Zero
Obama-Biden 2012
Premium
join:2007-01-18
Winston Salem, NC
reply to Alcohol

I'd love to know where you get your "data"

The mix of "new" iPhones to prior generation iPhones was not substantially different this year from any prior year. Per Tim Cook at the investor call: "ASP on iPhones was essentially the same YoY. Underneath that, if you look at the mix of iPhone 5 versus total iPhone, versus iPhone 4S the prior year, those mixes were similar. For capacity, we saw similar results in Q1 as we saw in Q1 of the prior year."

I looked through AT&T and Verizon's quarterly statements and I saw no breakdown from them between 4/4S/5 either.

You say no one will pay that much, but don't be surprised when people who hate buying phones under contract pick up a few hundred thousand of them from T-Mo. Essentially this is just going back to the original iPhone sales model which had impressive sales numbers for its time too.



RiseAbove
Premium
join:2004-01-30
reply to Alcohol

said by Alcohol:

said by Count Zero:

Apple still is selling 50% or more of the smart phones in the US on the two biggest carriers - and probably a fair share on the smaller carriers that have iPhones too... and with T-Mobile about to start selling the iPhone I predict another good year.

Most of those are 4/4s which is why their margins took a big hit this Q.

T-mobile will sell it unsubsidized. Nobody is going to pay $650 for an iphone on tmobile. They should have signed a deal with Tmobile years ago. Instead they're not renegotiating their sale price/quantity required because AT&T/Verizon/Sprint will want out. Apple is wrong here. They don't have the leverage they think they do.

I expect a major marketing push from AT&T and Verizon this year for non iphone products. They're tired of paying $650 for an iphone 5 when they can get a nokia lumia for $400 and Samsung galaxy for $500.

P.S. Most people are freaking out by Apple sales but this quarter was a week shorter than last years so market is overreacting.

you realize that the way Tmobile is going to sell the "unsubsidized phone" is through monthly installments like they do now with some of their phones. No one is going to have to, unless they want to, fork over the full retail price. Their HSDPA+ already blows most LTE out of the water in most markets. Here in Dallas it gets 25-35 down all day long and it burns through the same offerings from ATT and Verizon. I know this because I live here and I test out phones on all the networks for a living.

I think Tmobile is going to get plenty of people to jump ship because their prices.


Alcohol
Premium
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Reviews:
·Comcast
reply to Count Zero

said by Count Zero:

I'd love to know where you get your "data"

The mix of "new" iPhones to prior generation iPhones was not substantially different this year from any prior year. Per Tim Cook at the investor call: "ASP on iPhones was essentially the same YoY. Underneath that, if you look at the mix of iPhone 5 versus total iPhone, versus iPhone 4S the prior year, those mixes were similar. For capacity, we saw similar results in Q1 as we saw in Q1 of the prior year."

I looked through AT&T and Verizon's quarterly statements and I saw no breakdown from them between 4/4S/5 either.

You say no one will pay that much, but don't be surprised when people who hate buying phones under contract pick up a few hundred thousand of them from T-Mo. Essentially this is just going back to the original iPhone sales model which had impressive sales numbers for its time too.

data is from quarterly reports and earning calls. Check vz earning call to see breakup. They obviously didn't specify in iphone sales but they said how many iphone sold were on lte. Less than half sold were on lte aka i5. Look for when they talk about their lte network covering 89% of the country. It was around there they mentioned lte devices.

People who hate contracts aka people not on family plan or corporate discounted plan will not be able to afford $650 phones. I phone will not do well on tmobile.
--
I found the key to success but somebody changed the lock.


Alcohol
Premium
join:2003-05-26
Climax, MI
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Reviews:
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reply to FFH

Out of Verizon's 9.8 million new smartphone activations, 6.2 million were iPhones. Out of those, Shammo said that "almost half" were running on Verizon's LTE network — that means that the majority of iPhones sold at Verizon were not Apple's latest model, but instead older iPhone 4 and 4S models. As for the remainder of smartphone sales, Shammo said that the majority were Android devices.

»mobile.theverge.com/2013/1/22/39···ne-sales
--
I found the key to success but somebody changed the lock.



Alcohol
Premium
join:2003-05-26
Climax, MI
kudos:4
Reviews:
·Comcast
reply to RiseAbove

said by RiseAbove:

said by Alcohol:

said by Count Zero:

Apple still is selling 50% or more of the smart phones in the US on the two biggest carriers - and probably a fair share on the smaller carriers that have iPhones too... and with T-Mobile about to start selling the iPhone I predict another good year.

Most of those are 4/4s which is why their margins took a big hit this Q.

T-mobile will sell it unsubsidized. Nobody is going to pay $650 for an iphone on tmobile. They should have signed a deal with Tmobile years ago. Instead they're not renegotiating their sale price/quantity required because AT&T/Verizon/Sprint will want out. Apple is wrong here. They don't have the leverage they think they do.

I expect a major marketing push from AT&T and Verizon this year for non iphone products. They're tired of paying $650 for an iphone 5 when they can get a nokia lumia for $400 and Samsung galaxy for $500.

P.S. Most people are freaking out by Apple sales but this quarter was a week shorter than last years so market is overreacting.

you realize that the way Tmobile is going to sell the "unsubsidized phone" is through monthly installments like they do now with some of their phones. No one is going to have to, unless they want to, fork over the full retail price. Their HSDPA+ already blows most LTE out of the water in most markets. Here in Dallas it gets 25-35 down all day long and it burns through the same offerings from ATT and Verizon. I know this because I live here and I test out phones on all the networks for a living.

I think Tmobile is going to get plenty of people to jump ship because their prices.

IPhone won't get those speeds. It doesn't support it.

Here's a pic from their i5 announcement.

»afr.com/r/2009-2014/AFR/2012/09/···_lte.jpg

You will only see good speeds on limited markets. Vegas being the only one I can remember.

Tmobile is building their own lte network. But they have some spectrum from att when the deal was rejected to do iPhone compatibility with.

Badonkadonk
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Naperville, IL
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2 recommendations

reply to Alcohol

I'm not certain that Apple people care about math and reasoning. It flies in the face of the distortion field. Although, given recent market moves, that distortion field seems to be failing.
--
"You lie!" Talk about an understatement, Joe.



neuronbob
THERE ARE NO SHORT CUTS. NONE.

join:2000-03-30
Bedford, OH
reply to FFH

Lots of short-term thinking I see here.

Meanwhile, I am buying what I can. $439 a share? Relative bargain compared to last fall, before the stock started to tumble.

With $137 billion in cash, Apple has plenty of $$ to innovate. Not worried about the intermediate future yet, even though Tim=/Steve.
--
neuronbob.com



Count Zero
Obama-Biden 2012
Premium
join:2007-01-18
Winston Salem, NC
reply to Alcohol

You're basing your whole argument on VZW's result? I'd look at the Q&A from Apple's call for a more accurate picture.

It sounds to me like the only "low margin" area is the iPad mini but will correct itself over time.


Badonkadonk
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Naperville, IL
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Reviews:
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reply to FFH

What I find odd is all this talk about technology and innovation. That's not what Apple is about. They are about design, fashion and perception. When any one of those items starts failing, look out.

And fashion can fall out of favor at any time and fairly quickly.
--
"You lie!" Talk about an understatement, Joe.



Alcohol
Premium
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Reviews:
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reply to Count Zero

said by Count Zero:

You're basing your whole argument on VZW's result?

No.
--
I found the key to success but somebody changed the lock.


Alcohol
Premium
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Climax, MI
kudos:4
Reviews:
·Comcast
reply to neuronbob

said by neuronbob:

Lots of short-term thinking I see here.

Meanwhile, I am buying what I can. $439 a share? Relative bargain compared to last fall, before the stock started to tumble.

With $137 billion in cash, Apple has plenty of $$ to innovate. Not worried about the intermediate future yet, even though Tim=/Steve.

They've never needed cash to innovate. They've needed a good leader. Procurement is cooks specialty not innovation.
--
I found the key to success but somebody changed the lock.


Brendan
Warr Guitar is here

join:2000-07-14
Littleton, CO

2 edits

1 recommendation

reply to FFH

Click for full size
Bubble Wave
Click for full size
AAPL
Just glancing at the chart, Apple has followed what Charles Mackay called the "classic bubble wave" almost perfectly. See graphics, and my off-hand prediction of where the stock is (provided it continues following the pattern).

When it hits $175, I'll start buying. An excellent presentation on bubble psychology (and where I got the Bubble Wave graphic).

Credit: Grant Williams for the bubble wave graphic. Scottrade for the AAPL chart.
--
"Heaven is having an American salary, a Chinese cook, an English house, and a Japanese wife. Hell is having a Chinese salary, an English cook, a Japanese house, and an American wife." -- James H. Kabbler III

Kearnstd
Space Elf
Premium
join:2002-01-22
Mullica Hill, NJ
kudos:1
reply to FFH

Apple has lost its #1 slot for value to ExxonMobile.

Not a surprise, Apple has to make you want their product and ExxonMobile just has to wait until someone's needle is pointing at E to make money.
--
[65 Arcanist]Filan(High Elf) Zone: Broadband Reports



RiseAbove
Premium
join:2004-01-30
reply to Alcohol

said by Alcohol:

IPhone won't get those speeds. It doesn't support it.

Here's a pic from their i5 announcement.

»afr.com/r/2009-2014/AFR/2012/09/···_lte.jpg

You will only see good speeds on limited markets. Vegas being the only one I can remember.

Tmobile is building their own lte network. But they have some spectrum from att when the deal was rejected to do iPhone compatibility with.

Alcohol a lot of times you just talk out your rear with out knowing anything whatsoever . I live in Dallas a place where Tmobile re-farmed the 1900 for 3G and I can already tell you with a Tmobile micro sim slammed into a 4S, which does 14.4mbps downstream, will speedtest to about that whole lot.

Also the iPhone can't get those speeds? In what world the 5 does DC-HSDPA, 42 Mbps; HSDPA, 21 Mbps, so yes, yes it can get those and most of the Tmobile market has been sped up to either 21 or 42+ HSDPA.