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captnhook

join:2001-02-20
NY

The Blizzard of 2013

The National Weather Service has issued Blizzard Warnings and a Coastal Flood warning for the Northeast for this weekend.

"Major Winter Storm to Impact Northeast and New England Friday into Saturday

A major winter storm is expected to impact the Northeast and New England Friday into Saturday. As much as one to two feet of snow is forecast from the New York City metro area to Maine, with localized heavier amounts possible. This, in addition to wind gusts as high as 60-75 mph will create significant impacts to transportation and power. Coastal flooding is also possible from Boston northward."

The NWS and Major Media outlets are warning of a potentially record setting blizzard with up to 2 1/2 feet of snow for the Northeast.



ropeguru
Premium
join:2001-01-25
Mechanicsville, VA

Some models have been predicting this for MANY runs yet the NWS chose to ignore them until the last minute. People could have know about this potential long before yesterday.


wth
Premium
join:2002-02-20
Iowa City,IA
reply to captnhook

This pretty well explains why the nws was late in forecasting.
»video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/50742243



ropeguru
Premium
join:2001-01-25
Mechanicsville, VA

said by wth:

This pretty well explains why the nws was late in forecasting.
»video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/50742243

Yep. It was the euro model that I was eluding to in my post. So why is it that the NWS and the, so loved by some in this forum, TWC not trusting the euro model more than the US model? It has over and over been more accurate further out.

Both the NWS and TWC up until yesterday were calling for rain and some snow in NYC and not ever once mentioning the threat of a blizzard.


danawhitaker
Space...The Final Frontier
Premium
join:2002-03-02
Urbandale, IA

said by ropeguru:

said by wth:

This pretty well explains why the nws was late in forecasting.
»video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/50742243

Yep. It was the euro model that I was eluding to in my post. So why is it that the NWS and the, so loved by some in this forum, TWC not trusting the euro model more than the US model? It has over and over been more accurate further out.

Both the NWS and TWC up until yesterday were calling for rain and some snow in NYC and not ever once mentioning the threat of a blizzard.

What? The NWS made a mistake? And since TWC takes much of their information from the NWS, it also made a mistake?

This forecast seems to detail why they had so much uncertainty with the NYC area. It might answer some questions. I'm not sure how long the link will actually stay valid, I don't normally link these things on forums. It's the 4:12 p.m. area forecast discussion from the New York, NY NWS office on Wednesday.

»forecast.weather.gov/product.php···ight=off

When we had a big snowstorm come through Iowa back in December, the forecast discussions kept going back and forth about exactly how much snow we were going to get where I was too. Weather is a science, but not an exact one. I'm going to assume the NWS had good reasons for favoring other models.
--
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EGeezer
zichrona livracha
Premium
join:2002-08-04
Midwest
kudos:8
Reviews:
·Callcentric
reply to captnhook

I hope we get some great photos for the weather pic topic! we could see "blizzard of 78" scenes as far as snowfall and drifting is concerned.

»Post your weather pictures here

My memory of the '78 event is that it was much stronger winds and much colder for a longer period of time than this one is predicted to be.
--
Buckle Up. It makes it harder for the aliens to suck you out of your car.


Hoss
Sauters A Walrus

join:2000-10-05
Tulsa, OK
reply to captnhook

Snow is so much more difficult to forecast than rain is. By its nature.

Remember, that if you miss rain forecast totals by a quarter to half an inch, that's the same as missing snow totals by 2.5 to 5 inches!

NWS gets thunderstorm predictions wrong often enough, but they don't have the same impact as missing a prediction when it's freezing precip. I don't trust any forecast until no later than 72 hours out for rain, and even less for snow.



capecoddah

join:2005-03-18
Yarmouth Port, MA
kudos:1

1 recommendation

reply to captnhook

It snowed. It was windy.
We knew about it on Monday. Then again, some people are "surprised" by hurricanes.