Just a heads up there is Serious chatter on accuweather forums . Models indicate systems approaching could dump 20 to 30 cm of snow in Southern Ont and points east.
Received by WeatherServer.net at: Sun, 24 Feb 2013 15:31:28 -0500 Emailed to you at: Sun, 24 Feb 2013 15:31:26 -0500 299 WOCN11 CWTO 242030 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:30 PM EST SUNDAY 24 FEBRUARY 2013. --------------------------------------------------------------------- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR: =NEW= CITY OF TORONTO =NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT =NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON =NEW= ELGIN =NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX =NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK =NEW= DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND =NEW= OXFORD - BRANT =NEW= NIAGARA =NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON =NEW= HALTON - PEEL =NEW= YORK - DURHAM =NEW= HURON - PERTH =NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON =NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL =NEW= GREY - BRUCE =NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND =NEW= BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND =NEW= KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD =NEW= PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES =NEW= STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC =NEW= BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK =NEW= BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE =NEW= CITY OF OTTAWA =NEW= GATINEAU =NEW= PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL =NEW= CORNWALL - MORRISBURG =NEW= SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE =NEW= PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA =NEW= HALIBURTON =NEW= RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY =NEW= ALGONQUIN =NEW= BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET.
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
--------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN TEXAS IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO PASS NEAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AT THIS POINT, THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHICH AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY RAIN OR SNOW, AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. ENVIRONMENT CANADA IS CLOSELY MONITORING THE SITUATION. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.
PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA
END
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Just a heads up there is Serious chatter on accuweather forums . Models indicate systems approaching could dump 20 to 30 cm of snow in Southern Ont and points east.
I typically don't follow what EC says, but I do know that the Americans aren't calling anything for our neck of the woods - yet. Could be a whole lot of snow, or a whole lot of rain/freezing rain. I doubt we'll see anyone, including Environment Canada, starting to throw around potential accumulation numbers, their type and anything more than an SWS until tomorrow afternoon at the very soonest.
It looks like there will be snow for the GTA. Latest models (subject to change every 6 hours ) indicate approx 15 to 30 cm. The lowest amounts will be on the lakeshore, and the highest amounts somewhere in York region, with a gradient in between. There's still a lot of uncertainty about how much rain will be mixed in. It could be anything from wet heavy snow-only to a sloppy mix. Note; if you are an adult male, do NOT attempt to shovel wet heavy snow. That's begging for a heart attack.
It looks like there will be snow for the GTA. Latest models (subject to change every 6 hours ) indicate approx 15 to 30 cm.
EC is taking a much more conservative view than what you're saying with their own latest statement.
quote:WOCN11 CWTO 250936 Special weather statement updated by Environment Canada at 4:36 AM EST Monday 25 February 2013. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Special weather statement for: City of Toronto Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent Sarnia - Lambton Elgin London - Middlesex Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand Oxford - Brant Niagara City of Hamilton Halton - Peel York - Durham Huron - Perth Waterloo - Wellington Dufferin - Innisfil Grey - Bruce Barrie - Orillia - Midland Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland Kingston - Prince Edward Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac Bancroft - Bon Echo Park Brockville - Leeds and Grenville City of Ottawa Gatineau Prescott and Russell Cornwall - Morrisburg Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake Parry Sound - Muskoka Haliburton Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay Algonquin Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.
Potential winter storm Tuesday night and Wednesday.
--------------------------------------------------------------------- ==discussion== A low pressure system over Texas is forecast to intensify and move northeastward to pass near Southern Ontario Tuesday night and Wednesday. Significant amounts of precipitation are likely with this system. However, there is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding which areas will see mostly rain or snow, as temperatures will be fairly close to the freezing mark.
Current indications suggest that precipitation will begin Tuesday afternoon as rain over areas south of a line from Sarnia to St Catharines. The precipitation will change over to wet snow by early Tuesday evening and the snow will spread northeastward to South Central Ontario by late Tuesday evening and to Eastern Ontario by Wednesday morning. Some areas, especially to the west and northwest of Lake Ontario and including the Greater Toronto area, could see snowfall amounts as high as 15 cm through Wednesday morning with this system. However, there is still considerable uncertainty as to the precipitation phases, and if precipitation falls as rain instead, or if the snow is too wet and it melts when it contacts the ground, these snowfall totals could be considerably less. Areas near the Lake Ontario shoreline are also likely to have lower amounts due to mixing with rain.
Environment Canada is closely monitoring the situation. This statement will be updated to include additional information as it becomes available regarding the evolution of this potential winter storm.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
There's still a lot of uncertainty about how much rain will be mixed in. It could be anything from wet heavy snow-only to a sloppy mix.
This is basically the same thing as EC is saying. Note the bolded parts
==discussion== A low pressure system over Texas is forecast to intensify and move northeastward to pass near Southern Ontario Tuesday night and Wednesday. Significant amounts of precipitation are likely with this system. However, there is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding which areas will see mostly rain or snow, as temperatures will be fairly close to the freezing mark.
They're not being more conservative in snowfall amounts; they being more conservative in how far they forecast amounts. Here's a direct quote from the SWS...
Some areas, especially to the west and northwest of Lake Ontario and including the Greater Toronto area, could see snowfall amounts as high as 15 cm through Wednesday morning with this system.
The snow/rain/slop/whatever is NOT going to stop Wednesday morning. EC's own forecast for Toronto, as of 3:30 PM today »text.www.weatheroffice.g ··· 3&unit=m says...
Tuesday night: Cloudy. Wet snow or rain beginning late in the evening then changing to snow overnight. Snowfall amount 5 to 10 cm except 2 cm along the lakeshore. Wind east 40 km/h gusting to 60. Low zero.
Wednesday: Snow or rain. High plus 2.
Thursday: Periods of snow or rain. Low minus 1. High plus 2.
EC's detailed forecast, with amounts, only goes through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Their generic forecast beyond Wednesday morning has snow/rain or periods of snow/rain. Also, the Toronto city forecast does not cover Markham/Vaughan/Richmond Hill/Newmarket/Barrie, etc. See »text.www.weatheroffice.g ··· ml?id=on for a list of area forecasts in Ontario.
I am about 50 miles east of Amarillo, TX and it is pretty bad here. I 40 in Oklahoma, Texas and East New Mexico is closed, there is about 6 - 8 inches of ice, and wind is blowing probably 50 mph. If you guys get this tomorrow, good luck. According to USA Today, this is most snowfall in Texas in a 24 hour period ever
Sigh. Did you not read the part that I bolded? Here it is again, capitalized.
...could see snowfall amounts as high as 15 cm ***THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING***
EC's forecast for Toronto calls for snow/rain Thursday and periods of snow/rain Friday. That's ***IN ADDITION TO*** the amount through Wednesday morning. EC is only being conservative in not specifying the amount that will fall past Wednesday morning. I realize that things can change in 48 hours, and respect their decision to not attempt to forecast precip amounts that far ahead. Again, I repeat, there is no contradiction between...
•10-15 cm by Wednesday morning •and 15-30 cm by Friday evening
A lot will depend on the track of the storm. It's been sufficiently warm around here that some of the snow will invariably melt when it hits the ground. If there's more rain than snow that'll cut down on snowfall amounts.
Still, I'm not looking forward to dealing with a slushy mess.
2-day Storm system for Toronto has now being upgraded from mixed bag precipitation to 30 cm of snow, with havier amounts locally... @ 6:00am Tueday morning.
2-day Storm system for Toronto has now being upgraded from mixed bag precipitation to 30 cm of snow, with havier amounts locally... @ 6:00am Tueday morning.
Says who? I read the statement that was issued by EC at 4:52AM this morning and it says 10-15cm of snow possible by Wednesday morning if the storm moves on a northerly track, and "up to 20cm possible" if it moves southerly. Where are you (or anyone else) getting 30cm from?
quote:184 WWCN11 CWTO 261605 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 11:05 AM EST TUESDAY 26 FEBRUARY 2013. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...
SNOWFALL WARNING FOR: =NEW= CITY OF TORONTO =NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON =NEW= HALTON - PEEL =NEW= YORK - DURHAM =NEW= HURON - PERTH =NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON =NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL.
A LARGE MOISTURE LADEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM TEXAS HAS REACHED MISSOURI AND IS TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO. PRECIPITATION WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS WINTER STORM HAS REACHED NORTHERN OHIO AND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON, THEN INTO THE REGIONS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TO THE GREATER TORONTO AND HAMILTON AREAS THIS EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS VARIOUS SLOPPY MIXTURES OF RAIN AND WET SNOW AT FIRST. HOWEVER AS THE STORM CENTRE GETS CLOSER, EXPECT A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGIONS AS THE TEMPERATURE DROPS TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE DELAYED THOUGH IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE MILD WATERS THERE WILL HELP TO KEEP THERMOMETERS JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LITTLE LONGER THAN FURTHER INLAND OR OVER HIGHER GROUND.
THE SNOW WILL COME DOWN QUITE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 5 CM PER HOUR DURING THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THIS STORM. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 CENTIMETRES ARE LIKELY BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE WILL BE LESS.
THIS STORM WILL LIKELY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 250 METRES IN VERY HEAVY SNOW. UNTREATED ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD BE ALTERED ACCORDINGLY.
ENVIRONMENT CANADA IS CLOSELY MONITORING THIS LARGE TEXAS LOW AND MAY ISSUE SNOWFALL WARNINGS FOR OTHER REGIONS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS REQUIRED.
REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
2-day Storm system for Toronto has now being upgraded from mixed bag precipitation to 30 cm of snow, with havier amounts locally... @ 6:00am Tueday morning.
Says who? I read the statement that was issued by EC at 4:52AM this morning and it says 10-15cm of snow possible by Wednesday morning if the storm moves on a northerly track, and "up to 20cm possible" if it moves southerly. Where are you (or anyone else) getting 30cm from?
I am already planning to work with no pants on from home tomorrow. I could make it in easily as it is not that far but I do not think it is worth the hassle especially when I can work with no pants on from home.
Just perfect. Class trip to go skating was cancelled during the last storm and now tomorrow will probably be cancelled. Premonition of Final Destination 6 sending me a message?
I am already planning to work with no pants on from home tomorrow. I could make it in easily as it is not that far but I do not think it is worth the hassle especially when I can work with no pants on from home.
Whether I can make it in to work tommorow or not will depend on the condition of the road in front of my condo. Assuming the city actually gets off their ass and plows it, I should be able to make it in
2-day Storm system for Toronto has now being upgraded from mixed bag precipitation to 30 cm of snow, with havier amounts locally... @ 6:00am Tueday morning.
Says who? ... Where are you (or anyone else) getting 30cm from?