O Canada! > Canadian > Canadian Chat > [Weather] March 18-21 Storm

Received by WeatherServer.net at: Sun, 17 Mar 2013 18:57:19 -0400
Emailed to you at: Sun, 17 Mar 2013 18:57:22 -0400
610
WOCN11 CWTO 172256
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6:56 PM EDT
SUNDAY 17 MARCH 2013.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON
=NEW= ELGIN
=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
=NEW= DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
=NEW= OXFORD - BRANT
=NEW= NIAGARA
=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON
=NEW= HALTON - PEEL
=NEW= VAUGHAN - RICHMOND HILL - MARKHAM
=NEW= NEWMARKET - GEORGINA - NORTHERN YORK REGION
=NEW= UXBRIDGE - BEAVERTON - NORTHERN DURHAM REGION
=NEW= HURON - PERTH
=NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
=NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
=NEW= SAUGEEN SHORES - KINCARDINE - SOUTHERN BRUCE COUNTY
=NEW= HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY
=NEW= OWEN SOUND - BLUE MOUNTAINS - NORTHERN GREY COUNTY
=NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND.

RISK OF FREEZING RAIN MONDAY.
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==DISCUSSION==
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. SNOW MIXED WITH ICE
PELLETS ALONG WITH THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN IN
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING. THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
SPREAD EASTWARDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REACHING THE BARRIE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH 2 TO 4 CM FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING BRINGING A RETURN TO FLURRIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM ENVIRONMENT
CANADA AT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA

END

Snowstorm spreads East
March 17, 2013; 6:48 PM
Special Sunday p.m. update.....
The storm which has been producing steady snow over the southern Prairies will head towards the arrowhead of Minnesota on Monday.
A secondary, coastal storm will likely form near Long Island, NY on Tuesday and then track northeastward toward eastern Maine by early Wednesday.
Expect a general 8-15 cm (3-6 inches) across southern Manitoba through Monday morning, including Winnipeg, with locally higher amounts just to the north. However, even as the snow winds down midday Monday, the combination of increasing winds and low temperatures will result in widespread blowing and drifting through the day Monday, resulting in poor travel conditions due to low visibility and snow covered roads.

Farther east..........
Snow will spread from southwest to northeast across southern Ontario starting in the mid-morning in the south then getting up into the GTA around 3 pm or so.
This particular region (from the GTA on south/west) will likely be caught in between the storm over northern Minnesota and the developing one near the Northeast U.S. coast, so while there will be steady precipitation, it appears that the best dynamics for heavier precipitation will be over northern Ontario and from eastern Ontario/Quebec into New England then the Maritimes.
Snow will gradually change over to sleet then rain in the Windsor area by afternoon then the Niagara region sometime during the evening. I do thing the snow mixes over in London, but temperatures may hover at or below the freezing mark for the event.
In general, expect about 2-8 cm of snow from the GTA on south, but 2 cm or less south of London.
Areas right along the lake from Hamilton to Toronto will probably barely get above the freezing mark for a time Monday night, leading to a brief change to rain. Then as the winds shift and colder air works in late it will probably go back over to intermittent snow.
Areas such as Kitchener and just barely north/NW of Toronto itself could see the snow mixing with or changing to sleet for a time Monday evening, then back to snow Monday night. Again, most of the snow will be of varying rates and intermittent Monday night.
Snow might also mix with some sleet/ice in the Kingston area late Monday night for a few hours due to the downsloping wind.
This storm should be basically all snow north of a line from Goderich to Orangeville to New Market and just south of Peterborough to just north of Kingston.
Once into southern Quebec there will be some Atlantic inflow of moisture into the system so the snowfall rates will pick up on Tuesday.
The Accuweather.com snowfall map shows the expected snowfall from this storm as we head through Wednesday.

We may have to adjust the amounts higher across coastal New Brunswick, parts of Nova Scotia and PEI Tuesday night as I fear that a band of heavy precipitation will just surge northeastward before the lower level cold air leaves. Once that heavier band shifts northeast the snow might just end or change to drizzle, but not before a quick-hitting dump of snow. I will address this Monday morning.
Ski areas are no doubt reaping the rewards of this blocking pattern! Should be an extended season for many.

Received by WeatherServer.net at: Sun, 17 Mar 2013 16:47:27 -0400
Emailed to you at: Sun, 17 Mar 2013 16:47:27 -0400
404
WOCN12 CWTO 172046
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 4:46 PM
EDT SUNDAY 17 MARCH 2013.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= GERALDTON - LONGLAC - CARAMAT
=NEW= MANITOUWADGE - HORNEPAYNE
=NEW= WAWA - WHITE RIVER - PUKASKWA
=NEW= SAULT STE. MARIE - SUPERIOR EAST
=NEW= TIMMINS - COCHRANE - IROQUOIS FALLS
=NEW= GREATER SUDBURY AND VICINITY
=NEW= CHAPLEAU - GOGAMA
=NEW= KIRKLAND LAKE - NEW LISKEARD - TEMAGAMI
=NEW= ELLIOT LAKE - RANGER LAKE
=NEW= MANITOULIN - BLIND RIVER - KILLARNEY
=NEW= NORTH BAY - WEST NIPISSING
CITY OF THUNDER BAY
KENORA - NESTOR FALLS
DRYDEN - IGNACE
FORT FRANCES - RAINY LAKE
ATIKOKAN - UPSALA - QUETICO
SUPERIOR WEST
RED LAKE - EAR FALLS
SIOUX LOOKOUT - SAVANT LAKE
LAKE NIPIGON - WABAKIMI
NIPIGON - MARATHON - SUPERIOR NORTH.

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.

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==DISCUSSION==
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM MONTANA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT THEN INTO MINNESOTA MONDAY. AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES
EASTWARD, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AREAS NEAR THE MANITOBA AND
MINNESOTA BORDERS THIS EVENING.

AREAS WEST OF THUNDER BAY WILL RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW WITH 5 TO 10 CM
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 10 MONDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED 20 CENTIMETRES BY MONDAY EVENING.
THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 15 CM PER
12 HOURS.

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO
BY MONDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 10 CM ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT IN THESE AREAS.

ENOUGH SNOW MAY FALL TO CAUSE DRIVING CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AND
BECOME HAZARDOUS AT TIMES DUE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ON UNTREATED
ROADS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO GIVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN LOCAL
BLOWING SNOW. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA
TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATION.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA IS CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM ENVIRONMENT
CANADA AT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA.

END

They have expanded it.

Received by WeatherServer.net at: Sun, 17 Mar 2013 23:50:20 -0400
Emailed to you at: Sun, 17 Mar 2013 23:50:24 -0400
186
WOCN11 CWTO 180349
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 11:49 PM EDT SUNDAY 17 MARCH 2013.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= CITY OF TORONTO
=NEW= PICKERING - OSHAWA - SOUTHERN DURHAM REGION
=NEW= BRUCE PENINSULA - SAUBLE BEACH - TOBERMORY
=NEW= BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
=NEW= KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD
=NEW= PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
=NEW= STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC
=NEW= BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK
=NEW= BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE
=NEW= CITY OF OTTAWA
=NEW= GATINEAU
=NEW= PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
=NEW= CORNWALL - MORRISBURG
=NEW= SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE
=NEW= PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA
=NEW= HALIBURTON
=NEW= RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY
=NEW= ALGONQUIN
=NEW= BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET
WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
SARNIA - LAMBTON
ELGIN
LONDON - MIDDLESEX
SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
OXFORD - BRANT
NIAGARA
CITY OF HAMILTON
HALTON - PEEL
VAUGHAN - RICHMOND HILL - MARKHAM
NEWMARKET - GEORGINA - NORTHERN YORK REGION
UXBRIDGE - BEAVERTON - NORTHERN DURHAM REGION
HURON - PERTH
WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
SAUGEEN SHORES - KINCARDINE - SOUTHERN BRUCE COUNTY
HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY
OWEN SOUND - BLUE MOUNTAINS - NORTHERN GREY COUNTY
BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND.

A MESSY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH A SIGNIFICANT
LATE WINTER SNOWFALL FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS AND EASTERN ONTARIO.

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==DISCUSSION==

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO INDIANA MONDAY MORNING THEN TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN
ONTARIO BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER, IT WILL
SPREAD A WINTRY AND MESSY MIX OF PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
ON MONDAY. SNOW MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN
WILL BEGIN IN SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING. ICE PELLETS AND
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS A LINE FROM KINCARDINE THROUGH
BARRIE TO COBOURG MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
ERIE AND ONTARIO AND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A COATING NEAR LAKE
ERIE TO 2 TO 5 CM ACROSS THE GREATER TORONTO AREA TO WATERLOO
REGION AND STRATFORD AND 5 TO 10 CM FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN
GEORGIAN BAY.

OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND LOCALES NORTHEAST OF GEORGIAN BAY, LATEST
INDICATIONS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGIONS. INDICATIONS SUGGEST CLOSE TO 10 CM
FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF GEORGIAN BAY AND 10 TO 20 CM WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN ONTARIO BY TUESDAY EVENING.

MOTORISTS SHOULD EXPECT DRIVING CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. HAZARDOUS WINTER
DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS UNTREATED ROADS MAY BECOME
SLIPPERY AND SNOW COVERED, AND VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW
MAY BE QUITE LOW.

COLDER AIR WILL BLAST IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE DISTURBANCE, WITH FLURRIES AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. WINTER WILL HANG ON AND KEEP SPRING WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE TIME BEING.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA IS CLOSELY MONITORING THE SITUATION. FREEZING
RAIN WARNINGS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO, AND SNOWFALL WARNINGS
FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ONTARIO MAY BE ISSUED AS REQUIRED.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS AS
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED OR EXTENDED.

END/OSPC

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