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aurgathor

join:2002-12-01
Lynnwood, WA
kudos:1
Reviews:
·Frontier Communi..

Windows 8 Blamed for Biggest PC Shipment Plunge Ever

»blog.laptopmag.com/windows-8-shi···rop-ever

quote:
Global PC shipments fell by 13.9 percent in the first quarter of 2013, and according to analyst firm IDC , Windows 8 could very well be the reason. On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that 76.3 million PC units shipped during the most recent financial period, marking the biggest decline since the IDC began publishing quarterly numbers 19 years ago.

“The reaction to Windows 8 is real,” Jay Chou, an IDC analyst, said to The Wall Street Journal.

Increased demand for mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets have also played a role in this decline, but Windows 8 hasn’t helped. IDC continued to say that the OS actually contributed to the slump, saying that Windows 8 devices come with “features that don’t excel in a tablet mode” and take away from traditional PC usage.
Nothing really new here, except we now have a couple of hard numbers showing just how much the market has declined.
--
Wacky Races 2012!

OZO
Premium
join:2003-01-17
kudos:2

3 recommendations

Windows 8 design (and particularly its "Modern" UI, forced upon its users) was receipt for guaranteed failure. It was obvious from the first day, it was introduced to the public by Big Bull, running the company...

Who needs a phone-based OS to run desktop PC? That's ridiculous...
--
Keep it simple, it'll become complex by itself...


Kerodo

join:2004-05-08

Couldn't have said it better myself...



georgermct
PERFORMANCE

join:2000-05-12
Fairfield CT
Reviews:
·Optimum Online
reply to aurgathor

»www.youtube.com/watch?v=orK45-lDPJU


To Micro$oft

Mele20
Premium
join:2001-06-05
Hilo, HI
kudos:5

Can that be embedded as HTML5? I keep Flash disabled on Fx because the two services that run even when Flash is not being used...bad implementation on Mozilla's part. So, I could see the clip until I clicked on the youtube link where it promptly played in HTML5.
--
When governments fear people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. Thomas Jefferson



norwegian
Premium
join:2005-02-15
Outback
reply to OZO

said by OZO:

Windows 8 design (and particularly its "Modern" UI, forced upon its users) was receipt for guaranteed failure.

I can't believe how square and cheap it looks.
A GUI is sometimes a sensitive area, but if the vulnerabilities of Win 7 and the Aero experience didn't work, maybe they went back to basics.

GUI is a whole lot more to exploit on top of the underlying system, maybe that was what they had in mind, back to simple basics and work from there?
At least I can't remember anyone discussing this at all, but then, this maybe a security forum statement.
--
The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing - Edmund Burke



Octavean
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-31
New York, NY
kudos:1
reply to aurgathor

I was reading an article the other day that basically used the same source and statistics. Although what I read didn't attributed the decline to Windows 8 with specificity.

quote:
PC Shipments Post the Steepest Decline Ever in a Single Quarter, According to IDC

Worldwide PC shipments totaled 76.3 million units in the first quarter of 2013 (1Q13), down -13.9% compared to the same quarter in 2012 and worse than the forecast decline of -7.7%, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. The extent of the year-on-year contraction marked the worst quarter since IDC began tracking the PC market quarterly in 1994. The results also marked the fourth consecutive quarter of year-on-year shipment declines.

»www.techpowerup.com/182646/PC-Sh···IDC.html

but rather more of a contributing factor of a market that was already in negative growth:

The laptopmag.com article you linked to does too but the title of the article seems a bit misleading and sensationalistic since it can be interpreted as Windows 8 being the only cause.


aurgathor

join:2002-12-01
Lynnwood, WA
kudos:1
Reviews:
·Frontier Communi..

Inside the article they do mention that Win8 wasn't the only thing at play. Based on the predicted (-7.7%) vs actual (-13.9%) numbers, Win8 was responsible almost half of the decline, which sounds about right.
--
Wacky Races 2012!



Octavean
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-31
New York, NY
kudos:1

said by aurgathor:

Inside the article they do mention that Win8 wasn't the only thing at play. Based on the predicted (-7.7%) vs actual (-13.9%) numbers, Win8 was responsible almost half of the decline, which sounds about right.

I said that the article did too but the title was misleading and sensationalistic because it suggests Windows 8 is the only factor.

As for the base prediction of -7.7% with respect to actual -13.9%, how exactly does one get a hard number of what percentage Windows 8 would be responsible for? You can't simply assume that the predicted percentage would be accurate and attribute the rest to Windows 8.

If predicted numbers such as this were always accurate they wouldn't be considered predicted numbers.



Blackbird
Built for Speed
Premium
join:2005-01-14
Fort Wayne, IN
kudos:3
Reviews:
·Frontier Communi..
reply to aurgathor

The world is still in the throes of economic decline and financial chaos... money is tight (if even available) for many categories of potential buyers. Technology advances are allowing people to migrate to fairly cheap and mobile access to the Internet and communications - which access was the only reason many of them once acquired PCs in the first place. Businesses have slowed their PC equipment update cycles, largely because the "old" tools now work increasingly well to do most "newer" tasks. And into this already PC-purchase-unfriendly atmosphere, Microsoft drops Windows 8. While there might have been many PC "selling" features that MS could have conceived and included in a new OS, what they did include (at least superficially in the eye of the prospective buyer) all mitigated toward making the PC look like a giant tablet, but without the portability... in which case, either the casual buyer would migrate toward the genuinely-portable tablet, or the PC-demanding buyer would turn away in disgust over the usability issues.

With all the over-arching factors, I don't "blame" MS for the collapse in PC sales... but they certainly seem to have unintentionally aided and abetted it. As the future unfolds, I expect that PCs will become largely the exclusive haunt of businesses (large and small), online gamers, and a few enthusiast/hobbyists. The rest of the consumer masses will totally gravitate to small hand-helds for their Internet, communications, and social-networking trivia. The result will be for a fork of development in the OS business: PC-based OSs (notably higher in cost, once the mass-market emigrates elsewhere), and mobile-based OSs (lower in cost and treated like a bulk commodity, along with the hardware they're based in). In that context, MS with Windows 8, in attempting to plant a dominating foot into both worlds, has succeeded in making a 6-foot step across a 12-foot-wide chasm.
--
“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.” A. de Tocqueville



Octavean
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-31
New York, NY
kudos:1

A half step or a half measure, I've heard it called that before.

However, some people seem to point out that every other Microsoft OS is poorly received (paraphrasing as they usually say "sucks") and that in itself if true is a phenomena that could have meaning.

I think its a very real possibility that once users have an OS that they like such as XP or Windows 7 the new offerings such as Vista and Windows 8 in this case become difficult sales based on the attributes of their predecessors alone.

But there are a number of different factors likely at play. If you over simply a system to better understand it / deal with it, then you're no longer working with the same system.


dave
Premium,MVM
join:2000-05-04
not in ohio
kudos:8
Reviews:
·Verizon FiOS
reply to Octavean

Either Microsoft management are imbeciles because Windows 8 caused the decline in desktop PC sales, or they're smart people who saw which way the market was heading and de-emphasized the desktop in Windows 8 development.



Octavean
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-31
New York, NY
kudos:1

said by dave:

Either Microsoft management are imbeciles because Windows 8 caused the decline in desktop PC sales, or they're smart people who saw which way the market was heading and de-emphasized the desktop in Windows 8 development.


And why can't it be both (and possibly more).....?

The writing was on the wall with respect to the growth of the PC industry,....

OZO
Premium
join:2003-01-17
kudos:2
reply to norwegian

said by norwegian:

said by OZO:

Windows 8 design (and particularly its "Modern" UI, forced upon its users) was receipt for guaranteed failure.

I can't believe how square and cheap it looks.
A GUI is sometimes a sensitive area, but if the vulnerabilities of Win 7 and the Aero experience didn't work, maybe they went back to basics.

If you want basics, then go to classic WXP. That's a good ol' basic. But they've decided to go far beyond that. They went to the pre-windows era, where there is no windows, only one big screen (only one app per screen). Starting from that point they will have to re-invent multiple windows on the screen, gradually introducing first 2 windows on the screen, then may be 3 or 4 and so on... Yeah, it will create a new path for "better than ever" long line of followed products, but do we, desktop PC users need that path?
--
Keep it simple, it'll become complex by itself...


aurgathor

join:2002-12-01
Lynnwood, WA
kudos:1
Reviews:
·Frontier Communi..

said by OZO:

If you want basics, then go to classic WXP. That's a good ol' basic.

I think the good ol' basics is Win98/Win2000 -- they have the UIs that are neither too fancy nor too bland, very easy and obvious to use, and have the right amount of 'eye candy'. With respect to technical merits Win98s was very bug ridden, but Win2000 was a very good OS, too bad it's long obsolete.
--
Wacky Races 2012!


aurgathor

join:2002-12-01
Lynnwood, WA
kudos:1
Reviews:
·Frontier Communi..
reply to Octavean

said by Octavean:

As for the base prediction of -7.7% with respect to actual -13.9%, how exactly does one get a hard number of what percentage Windows 8 would be responsible for? You can't simply assume that the predicted percentage would be accurate and attribute the rest to Windows 8.

Obviously, getting 100% accurate numbers is nigh impossible, but there there are several ways one can validate the numbers to some extent.

The first one is to take a look at their predictions for previous quarters, and see how well they match with actual numbers, and if there is a discrepancy, what are explanations for those. They can't predict natural disasters and their effects, for one.

The other approach would be to examine the return rates on comparable Win7 and Win8 devices, and draw some conclusion from that. However, I'm not sure if manufacturers publish those numbers.
--
Wacky Races 2012!


digitalfutur
Sees More Than Shown
Premium
join:2000-07-15
BurlingtonON
kudos:2

1 recommendation

reply to aurgathor

Really? PC sales, including Macs, were in decline for at least a year before Windows 8 was released. That's not a trend that Microsoft started. Both continue to decline, despite the "separation" of iOS and OS X that some tout as the way Microsoft should have gone with Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8. Sales numbers show that's the wrong way to go.

Until Windows 8, Microsoft had no presence in the mobile space, having underestimated how quickly mobile devices would grow. Continuing to evolve the desktop from Windows 7 doesn't make sense business wise if sales are declining.

The future is mobile, specifically convergence of the mobile and PC spaces. The dedicated desktop PC as it exists today will be gone within 10 years in terms of new product sales. It will be replaced by dockable or portable designs that are multi-purpose, because that's the message that the market is sending to tech companies. The desktop UI will be gone as well, with all of its functions launchable from the Modern UI, which itself will evolve into a multitasking environment.
--
Logic requires one to deal with decisions that one's ego will not permit.
All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing - Edmund Burke.


Mele20
Premium
join:2001-06-05
Hilo, HI
kudos:5

I fear you may be right and, if so, this may be my last computer. I have ZERO interest in all the mobile stuff.



aurgathor

join:2002-12-01
Lynnwood, WA
kudos:1
Reviews:
·Frontier Communi..
reply to digitalfutur

said by digitalfutur:

Really? PC sales, including Macs, were in decline for at least a year before Windows 8 was released.

I have never said or implied that PC sales weren't declining before. They've been kinda stagnant for quite a while, but a 13.9% drop was much worse than expected.

Until Windows 8, Microsoft had no presence in the mobile space, having underestimated how quickly mobile devices would grow.

How do you define mobile devices? WinCE and Windows phione has been out for quite a while and they did make into some mobile device.

Continuing to evolve the desktop from Windows 7 doesn't make sense business wise if sales are declining.

And trying to force desktop users to use a phone/tablet interface makes even less sense w.r.t. number of sales.

The future is mobile, specifically convergence of the mobile and PC spaces. The dedicated desktop PC as it exists today will be gone within 10 years in terms of new product sales.

We'll see.

It will be replaced by dockable or portable designs that are multi-purpose, because that's the message that the market is sending to tech companies. The desktop UI will be gone as well, with all of its functions launchable from the Modern UI, which itself will evolve into a multitasking environment.

So that's why MS want us to use a single tasking 'Modern UI' today?
--
Wacky Races 2012!

OZO
Premium
join:2003-01-17
kudos:2

said by aurgathor:

It will be replaced by dockable or portable designs that are multi-purpose, because that's the message that the market is sending to tech companies. The desktop UI will be gone as well, with all of its functions launchable from the Modern UI, which itself will evolve into a multitasking environment.

So that's why MS want us to use a single tasking 'Modern UI' today?

To charge extra for two windows on one screen again later in the future...

If serious, all those justifications of pushing that inferior and childish UI design, called "Modern", are ridiculous and out of touch with reality. And now those, who thought it was right executive decision to force users to use it, are trying to find out any explanations for declining shipments of Windows 8 PC, except the one, that was obvious from the beginning. Yeah, right...
--
Keep it simple, it'll become complex by itself...

Frodo

join:2006-05-05
kudos:1

2 recommendations

reply to aurgathor

Just bought a PC a month ago. I went with the crowd sentiment and got one with Win 7 Pro 64. I don't know if it's the hardware or the software, but between the two, I like it very much.

I stuck a virtual XP on the computer (XP mode) so now, I got a new Win 7, the XP I always had, and faster hardware (I7-3770). Last PC was a Pentium 4 from 2003.

From what I hear, Win7 is Vista fixed whereas Win8 sounded like a new tangent that was going to have quirks. So, I voted with my wallet for Win 7 pro 64. I like it a lot, especially the UAC and the integrity levels.



aurgathor

join:2002-12-01
Lynnwood, WA
kudos:1

Smart choice.



Snakeoil
Ignore Button. The coward's feature.
Premium
join:2000-08-05
Mentor, OH
kudos:1
reply to aurgathor

I have 2 PCs that has windows Vista on it. Seldom, if ever had any problems with them. Now they are aging. I had two other windows Vista PCs that got replaced by Windows 8 laptops.
So currently I have 3 windows 8 laptops, and have had them for about 2 months now. Haven't had any major issue with them.
Hence I can't see all the hate for 8.
Nor could I understand the hate for Vista.

I think one thing is, some businesses invest a great deal of time and money to test out a new os with the programs they have to run. To see if there is any compatibility issues.
Windows 7 isn't that old. Granted underneath Win 8 is pretty close, if not the same as win 7. So there should be few if any compatibility issues.

Also what is the cost or was the cost of an enterprise upgrade from 7 to 8?
I'm sure it could be pricey if you have 20 or more PCs.
Some businesses like to get their money's worth before changing out.
Same with some people.

Edit:
The plus side is that there maybe some decent PC sales soon.
--
Is a person a failure for doing nothing? Or is he a failure for trying, and not succeeding at what he is attempting to do? What did you fail at today?.



DarkSithPro

join:2005-02-12
Tempe, AZ
kudos:2

1 edit

1 recommendation

reply to aurgathor

Perhaps the PC market is fully matured
Perhaps money is tighter these days
Perhaps tablets are taking over the menial and entertainment tasks PC's do
Perhaps computers aren't getting faster than they used to
Perhaps software still hasn't caught up to the hardware
Perhaps it's all of these

When I was a kid we all wanted a desktop to play Quake, Doom, Red Alert, ect. Now you ask a kid when he wants and it's a smartphone, console, or a tablet.

Computers just aren't cool anymore. All the arguments in here are probably from people that are from the last generation of thought, trying to problem solve a generational issue. Face it mom and dad, you're ideas and logic, when it comes to technology is not what the new generation wants...



Octavean
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-31
New York, NY
kudos:1

1 edit
reply to aurgathor

said by aurgathor:

said by Octavean:

As for the base prediction of -7.7% with respect to actual -13.9%, how exactly does one get a hard number of what percentage Windows 8 would be responsible for? You can't simply assume that the predicted percentage would be accurate and attribute the rest to Windows 8.

Obviously, getting 100% accurate numbers is nigh impossible, but there there are several ways one can validate the numbers to some extent.

The first one is to take a look at their predictions for previous quarters, and see how well they match with actual numbers, and if there is a discrepancy, what are explanations for those. They can't predict natural disasters and their effects, for one.

The other approach would be to examine the return rates on comparable Win7 and Win8 devices, and draw some conclusion from that. However, I'm not sure if manufacturers publish those numbers.

said by aurgathor:

Inside the article they do mention that Win8 wasn't the only thing at play. Based on the predicted (-7.7%) vs actual (-13.9%) numbers, Win8 was responsible almost half of the decline, which sounds about right.

I read both articles and neither one of them attempted to make assertions that Windows 8 was responsible for the discrepancy in its entirety (or even majority) between the predicted numbers and the actual numbers.

Probably for good reason, such as the need to support such assertions,...

BTW, it was a rhetorical question.


Michail
Premium
join:2000-08-02
Boynton Beach, FL
kudos:1
reply to DarkSithPro

said by DarkSithPro:

Perhaps the PC market is fully matured
Perhaps money is tighter these days
Perhaps tablets are taking over the menial and entertainment tasks PC's do
Perhaps computers aren't getting faster than they used to
Perhaps software still hasn't caught up to the hardware
Perhaps it's all of these

When I was a kid we all wanted a desktop to play Quake, Doom, Red Alert, ect. Now you ask a kid when he wants and it's a smartphone, console, or a tablet.

Computers just aren't cool anymore. All the arguments in here are probably from people that are from the last generation of thought, trying to problem solve a generational issue. Face it mom and dad, you're ideas and logic, when it comes to technology is not what the new generation wants...

All true, but I see many kids into actual desktops still. It's amazing what a 10 year old will mod/hack in order to play minecraft.


Octavean
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-31
New York, NY
kudos:1

said by Michail:

said by DarkSithPro:

Perhaps the PC market is fully matured
Perhaps money is tighter these days
Perhaps tablets are taking over the menial and entertainment tasks PC's do
Perhaps computers aren't getting faster than they used to
Perhaps software still hasn't caught up to the hardware
Perhaps it's all of these

When I was a kid we all wanted a desktop to play Quake, Doom, Red Alert, ect. Now you ask a kid when he wants and it's a smartphone, console, or a tablet.

Computers just aren't cool anymore. All the arguments in here are probably from people that are from the last generation of thought, trying to problem solve a generational issue. Face it mom and dad, you're ideas and logic, when it comes to technology is not what the new generation wants...

All true, but I see many kids into actual desktops still. It's amazing what a 10 year old will mod/hack in order to play minecraft.

A very valid point for some kids indeed,....

Anecdotally, I can say the teen and preteens I know tend to favor their ARM based phones and tablets even if they have their own PC. And in addition to that they tend to have more then one ARM device resulting in a two to one ratio,...or something similar,....

I'm also seeing that some younger people may have their first computing experience on a nontraditional computing device like a smart phone or tablet rather then a traditional PC,....

Getting them when they are young is a good stratagem for lifelong loyalty,...


trparky
Apple... YUM
Premium,MVM
join:2000-05-24
Cleveland, OH
kudos:2

Most people's computers have far more processing power in it than they could hope to use, even in two years. The vast majority of people only browse the web, check email, etc. A dual-core CPU could do that and a lot more.

Today's modern computers have at the very least a quad-core CPU and probably about 6 GBs of RAM. Again, most people won't even come close to using all of that hardware.

For instance, I have a Core i5 Quad-Core CPU here. Most of the time, even with my work load my CPU's average usage according to Process Hacker hovers at around 15% usage per CPU.

Video cards are the one piece of hardware that seems to go obsolete faster than any other hardware in a computer.

People do often complain about how their computer is slow but it's not caused by the CPU or RAM, quite simply we're running into the biggest bottleneck in today's PCs. The hard disk drive. It is the single most limited component in today's PC. Take a SSD can put it into even a lowly Intel Core 2 Duo-based machine and watch it take off like a rocket!
--
Tom
Boycott AT&T uVerse! | Tom's Android Blog



Vamp
5c077
Premium
join:2003-01-28
MD
kudos:1
reply to aurgathor

Windows 8 is down right awful. Practically every task takes atleast 2-3 more steps to complete, it's damn near impossible to manage different open windows, "Apps"? really?, Now computers can ship with even more malware and junkware.

At this point it would far easier to teach a new person how to use linux than windows 8.

--
75/35 FIOS || MSN Msgr: scott001^gmail_com



nwrickert
sand groper
Premium,MVM
join:2004-09-04
Geneva, IL
kudos:7
Reviews:
·AT&T U-Verse

2 recommendations

said by Vamp:

At this point it would far easier to teach a new person how to use linux than windows 8.

Good (and probably true).

Did Windows 8 bring in many new mobile device user? Unlikely - it is too little too late for those users.

Did Windows 8 annoy many desktop users? Probably.

Is Windows 8 the cause of the PC shipment drop? Not the entire cause, but it is very hard to judge the effect on sales with so much else going on.

But I think the Microsoft mistake is more serious than that. Remember Sun Computers? They thought that they were selling server hardware and software. Some of us tried to point out their folly, but they learned too late.

The problem for Sun, was this: If the people ordering servers are not using Sun software on their desktops, they are far less likely to order Sun hardware and software for their servers.

Microsoft is going to have a similar problem. If it pushes desktop users to linux, then guess what server hardware and software those desktop users are going to order in the future?
--
AT&T Uverse; Buffalo WHR-300HP router (behind the 2wire gateway); openSuSE 12.3; firefox 20.0