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34764170

join:2007-09-06
Etobicoke, ON

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reply to rolande

Re: IPv6 non connect

said by rolande:

We won't see major transition, until there is that killer app that is only accessible via IPv6. Ultimately, though, I don't think it will be a killer app. I think it is going to be a killer use case like sensors and automation everywhere that forces the larger businesses to transition because of their own internal address depletion issues. Once the 800lb gorillas start the transition and >50% of content and apps transition it will be all downhill from there. The question is how long it takes for the snowflakes to collect into large enough snowballs to start gathering momentum to go downhill. I think it is still another 3 to 5 years off before the economics of the problem really drives the wholesale mass market adoption.

Thank god that is not true. Such a "killer app" will not be necessary. The transition will happen anyway just by the ISPs actually getting off their butts and enabling support out of the box by default. Most of the major brand names sell routers with v6 out of the box now. The ISPs will roll out firmware upgrades to their own provided CPE and some are already doing that now such as Verizon, Comcast and some of the other MSOs. It'll be a lot sooner than 3 to 5 years with ARIN about to run out of address space by next year.


rolande
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It is still a chicken and the egg problem. Even if all the ISPs enable native IPv6 support on their CPE, it won't mean a darn thing until most of the major content providers are offering their content natively via IPv6 and the default DNS response is a AAAA record. There is no real carrot yet for the content providers to spend resources on building all of the native IPv6 support.

Until you start seeing large populations of users who can only get IPv6 connectivity, the majority of the content providers will not put a high priority on offering services via IPv6. I still say 3 to 5 years before you start seeing any real significant adoption numbers that actually mean anything. Regardless of how fast the Internet moves, the services made available are still governed by the laws of economics.
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tiger72
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Any major content provider is already using IPv6. All major datacenters are running IPv6. Verizon and T-Mobile already use IPv6 on their LTE networks by default. T-Mobile offers it as an option for its HSPA network.

Along with wireline networks and thousands of datacenters, that's a lot of devices and servers already IPv6-ready. It really is mostly a matter of time at this point. Once LTE is ubiquitous and end-users have upgraded to IPv6-capable routers at home, the only hindrance would be ISP's.
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"What makes us omniscient? Have we a record of omniscience? ...If we can't persuade nations with comparable values of the merit of our cause, we'd better reexamine our reasoning."
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