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SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL

Tropical Storm Flossie Expected to Visit Hawaii

Click for full size
Gonna check out
Flossie,
looks like she wants to take an Hawaiian vacation..

PS if anyone wants to update this, by all means pick it up. It's not likely I'll post anymore on Flossie.


EGeezer
zichrona livracha
Premium
join:2002-08-04
Midwest
kudos:8
Reviews:
·Callcentric
It presently appears Flossie will weaken and encounter the Hawaiian Islands at TS or TD intensity. I copied this from Wunderground and paragraphed the notice for readability. The "all caps" and no paragraphs format is somewhat irritating and hard to read. The all caps header is from NHC.

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 271618
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013

800 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013

Satellite images indicate that Flossie has started to weaken. There are no signs of the mid-level eye feature that was apparent earlier...and the cloud tops have warmed and become somewhat elongated.

The initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt...in accordance with the Dvorak estimates. Marginal SSTs...dry air aloft...and increasing westerly shear should generally keep the storm on a gradual weakening trend for the next several days.

The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is unchanged from earlier...285/17. The storm should slow a bit tomorrow and turn more toward the west due to a retrograding ridge north of the Hawaiian islands.

Almost all of the models show Flossie near the southern Hawaiian islands in 60-72 hours...and the official forecast is essentially unchanged.

Flossie should be across 140w longitude by 1800 UTC...so the next advisory will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Public advisories can be found under AWIPS header hfotcpcp1 and WMO header wtpa31 phfo. Forecast discussions can be found under hfotcdcp1 and WMO header wtpa41 phfo.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 27/1500z 17.8n 139.3w 55 kt 65 mph
12h 28/0000z 18.4n 141.9w 55 kt 65 mph
24h 28/1200z 19.1n 145.3w 50 kt 60 mph
36h 29/0000z 19.4n 148.4w 45 kt 50 mph
48h 29/1200z 19.6n 151.3w 40 kt 45 mph
72h 30/1200z 20.2n 157.3w 35 kt 40 mph
96h 31/1200z 20.6n 164.0w 30 kt 35 mph
120h 01/1200z...dissipated

$$
forecaster Blake


--
Buckle Up. It makes it harder for the aliens to suck you out of your car.


SoonerAl
Premium,MVM
join:2002-07-23
South Padre Island, TX
kudos:5
reply to SmokChsr
FYI...

The CPHC Flossie guidance is here...

»www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/FLOSSIE.php


EGeezer
zichrona livracha
Premium
join:2002-08-04
Midwest
kudos:8
Reviews:
·Callcentric
reply to SmokChsr
Latest update as of this post;

Statement as of 5:00 am HST on July 28, 2013

Satellite images show that Flossie gradually intensified
overnight...but that trend appears to have abated somewhat in the last hour or two...with the center estimated to be on the south side of the deep convection.

A trmm pass at 0733z showed the development of an eye feature...and hints of that feature were apparent in earlier infrared geostationary satellite images. A 0630z ascat pass showed winds as high as 45 kt in the north semicircle...but given the apparent improvement in organization overnight...and the tendency for ascat to underestimate wind speeds...the initial
intensity has been raised to 55 kt. The initial motion estimate is
toward 275 degrees at 17 kt.

Although SSTs warm slightly along Flossie/S projected path...water vapor imagery shows Flossie embedded in an area of increasingly dry air aloft...due to the subsidence associated with a nearly stationary ridge aloft just west of the main Hawaiian islands.

As Flossie moves west...this ridge is expected to impart increasing north to northeasterly shear over the system...and intensity models continue to indicate a gradual weakening...but at a slower rate than earlier.

The intensity forecast has thus been nudged upward through much of the forecast...and is close to the SHIPS guidance and the intensity consensus.

Track guidance continues to show a slight decrease in Flossie/S
forward speed over the next 24 to 36 hours...as it distances itself from the surface ridge far to the north-northeast...and begins to feel the effects of the mid-level ridge to the west. The track guidance is tightly clustered in the short term...with nearly all the models showing Flossie near The Big Island and Maui Monday morning...passing south of Oahu Monday night.

The latest track forecast is just a little north of the previous one...and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Forecast positions and Max winds

Init 28/1500z 19.8n 146.9w 55 kt 65 mph
12h 29/0000z 20.1n 149.6w 50 kt 60 mph
24h 29/1200z 20.2n 152.9w 45 kt 50 mph
36h 30/0000z 20.3n 156.1w 40 kt 45 mph
48h 30/1200z 20.5n 159.6w 40 kt 45 mph
72h 31/1200z 20.9n 166.0w 35 kt 40 mph
96h 01/1200z 21.2n 173.0w 30 kt 35 mph...

Post-trop/remnt low 120h 02/1200z...dissipated

$$
forecaster birchard


--
Buckle Up. It makes it harder for the aliens to suck you out of your car.


EGeezer
zichrona livracha
Premium
join:2002-08-04
Midwest
kudos:8
Reviews:
·Callcentric
reply to SmokChsr
Since I have friends in Hawaii on the windward side, here's an update from CPHC, who is now posting information on Flossie;

A tropical storm warning has been issued for Hawaii and Maui counties.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for Oahu.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR:
*HAWAII COUNTY

*MAUI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, MOLOKAI, LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
*OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE HONOLULU NWS FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1100 pm HST, 0900 UTC, the center of tropical storm Flossie was located near latitude 19.4 north, longitude 145.2 west. Flossie is moving toward the west near 20 mph, and this motion is expected to continue through 48 hours, with a slight slowing in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Flossie will pass near or close to the Big Island and Maui on Monday, and south of Oahu Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, 95 km/h, with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb, 29.47 inches.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND

Tropical storm force winds are expected Monday morning in Hawaii and Maui counties, and are possible on Oahu Monday night.

RAINFALL
Heavy rainfall may begin as early as Monday morning over Hawaii county and Monday afternoon over Maui county. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

SURF
Dangerously large surf will begin to impact east facing shores as early as Sunday afternoon with the largest surf expected on Monday and Tuesday. Please consult the latest hurricane local statement for more information.


--
Buckle Up. It makes it harder for the aliens to suck you out of your car.


Hayward
K A R - 1 2 0 C
Premium
join:2000-07-13
Key West, FL
kudos:1

3 edits
reply to SmokChsr
Well at least She gets free airfare

Glad some pre Dorian heavy rain ended and Dorian fizzled while I was getting my roof replaced... now done.

And actually May-July KW set an all time spring record (since 1870's records kept) rain fall of 25.8" and almost weekly low lying downtown street flooding and tourists wadding. (of course the torrential rain always comes at high tide)
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