Wireless / Mobile → Wireless Users Chat > Lower Data Caps Meet Higher Speeds; Result: KABOOMIE!!!

Lower Data Caps Meet Higher Speeds; Result: KABOOMIE!!!

As we all know, for the past several years wireless Internet service providers in the US have moved steadily away from unlimited packages other than on phones. In particular, laptop users have been the hardest hit. The last holdout in that regard was Sprint, which finally jettisoned its unlimited laptop package about a year ago.

Nevertheless there are companies which have attempted to fill the void.

Clear continues to offer its WiMax package unlimited. WiMax is good when it works but it is a very holey network, and if you're in a non-WiMax area you're basically out of luck.

Two resellers, Millenicom and Wireless 'n' WiFi have also entered the arena.

Millenicom offers access to both the Verizon Wireless or Sprint network, with data packages significantly larger than those that can be purchased direct from those companies.

On the other hand, Wireless 'n' WiFi offers an unlimited package, but only on the Sprint network. Nevertheless, even in WnW's case, its subscribers are being urged to exercise some restraint in their usage.

The core issue is that spectrum being utilized for these services is being used up, temporarily creating a "squeeze" condition.

Compounding the problem is the fact that wireless networks are getting faster and faster, which means that consumers are hitting their data caps earlier and earlier in the month.

Further exacerbating the problem is the fact that web sites are becoming more bandwidth-intensive, with richer, more demanding, graphic and multimedia experience. Youtube clips, for example, are now routinely posted with HD versions.

However the commercial fact of life is that consumers do not appear to be scaling back on their wireless usage, and the marketplace pressure is in the direction of LARGER data packages, not SMALLER data packages.

A quick look at the Millenicom vs. Wireless 'n' WiFi packages illustrates that, and my personal experience is a good example of that.

A year or so ago, I decided to subscribe to Millenicom. I chose the BYOD package with a soft 50 gig cap. I said to myself "No way will I ever go near 50 gigs," and, for several months, I was correct, averaging between 30 and 40 gigs.

But keep in mind what's happening with more and more demanding web sites, as mentioned above, on Youtube and elsewhere. EVEN THOUGH MY SURFING HABITS DID NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY, my data consumption DID. Eventually I was forced to switch from Millenicom to Wireless 'n' WiFi. I have read in the wireless Internet forums on this web site of others who made the same switch for the same reason.

It is likely, in my opinion, that as network speeds increase and LTE becomes more mature and more universally available, the upward pressure on data packages will force resellers like Millenicom and, perhaps, even the network companies like Sprint and Verizon Wireless, to move toward higher caps or no caps or, at the very least, to move to lower prices perhaps.

But none of that addresses the fundamental physical fact that the wireless Internet industry appears to be facing a spectrum crunch, which would tend to create an OPPOSITE pressure, a pressure to LOWER data caps and INCREASE prices for access, in an attempt to postpone the day when there will be no more room at the inn.

Therefore, given the current spectrum situation in wireless Internet, there is the presence or absence of probability that there will either be, within a specified period of time,

1) a spectrum crunch, in which the usability, usefulness and efficiency of wireless Internet connectivity will eventually dwindle to nothing or
2) that technological progress will open up wireless Internet possibilities that will transcend the spectrum crunch of current technology.

The parameters of this reality are controlled by its historical and social context. That context has been set by the history of humanity, and that history helps to guide us in understanding those parameters.

Specifically, over any period of time, human beings tend to develop more sophisticated means of communication through the development and improvement of technology. The Pony Express becomes the telephone becomes the radio becomes the television becomes the Internet, etc. etc.

Other things being equal therefore, the historical tendency of human society's technologies, and thus a very important default parameter of those technologies, is that they will continually be changed and improved in response to the needs of that society. Absent indicators to the contrary, a relatively safe assumption therefore is that any given technology utilized by human society will function more efficiently and effectively in the future than in the past, unless it is abandoned altogether.

Just to be clear, I make no claims that there is no spectrum crunch currently, or that Millenicom or Sprint or whoever will be raising or blowing their data caps tomorrow. My thesis is a conclusion that pertains exclusively to a probable FUTURE, on the basis of observation and theory. I observe that there is a wireless spectrum crunch today in the technology utilized to implement wireless Internet connections. I also observe that, in human society, the technology for a given technological product tends to be improved over time. I therefore theorize that human technology will, over time, respond to that spectrum crunch with technological improvements that will address and repair, or at least compensate for, that problem.

As I see it, in order to rationally question my theory, it is necessary to come up with an historical model of human technological improvement which indicates that the spectrum crunch problem is not one which the past indicates humanity has the talent or the wish to correct. I'm not saying that might not be the case. But what I am saying is that absent a specific set of historical precedents to which one can point, I do not see it possible to make a case that the industry will NOT eventually move toward higher data caps.

But how could that become technologically possible? How could that possibly happen?

To some extent, I will confess that I see those two questions above as somewhat tangential. My central thesis is that humanity will do what it needs to do to get there, by whatever road it chooses to construct. More specific to my message is the thesis that it is inevitable that our society will figure out the solution to our current spectrum crunch, and it is the question of whether that underlying thesis is correct which I hope will form the core of further discussion in this thread. HOW society will solve the crunch is less centrally related to that discussion. Hey, for all I know, maybe eventually we will develop subspace radio, you know??!!

Nevertheless I do not specifically object to getting down to cases or discussing specific avenues of technological exploration.

For example, right now there are some very interesting ideas out there about how to address spectrum crunch and widen the ease of availability of wireless Internet to the average consumer. By way of example, take a look at an article by Kevin Fitchard at »connectedplanetonline.com/wirele···ex3.html . Note that in this article we even have a date by which time the spectrum crunch may be, to some extent, addressed successfully, namely 2025, leading to precisely the future reality I theorize, specifically greater ease of access to wireless Internet, with providers moving to higher data caps and perhaps even flat rates again.

Fitchard's first sentence names the process by which the spectrum crunch might be addressed in the future: spectrum reuse:

"The second technique, spectrum reuse, will become the prime way of eking out higher capacities from the network, and that won't just mean the further splitting of cells. The cellular network will begin to shrink as bandwidth demands grows, said Håkan Eriksson, chief technology officer for Ericsson. The notion of the hulking cell site covering miles of urban terrain will evolve to one of smaller cells with centers spaced as closely as dozens of meters apart."

The article interviews Michael Oommen, described as a vice president for Sprint focusing on device and technology development:

"The networks of the future will require radically different topologies, Oommen said, many of which wouldn't necessarily separate the notion of device from the notion of infrastructure. The devices themselves would become nodes in larger network topologies, communicating with one another along with multiple networks."

How would this become possible? The article then offers an intriguing glimpse at the work currently being done in this area:

"Vendor research labs are exploring radios that could be configurable in real time to any spectral band, even any radio access standard. Cognitive radio could be used to ferret out unused spectrum in the white spaces between TV channels or in unlicensed bands to add capacity to the network."

One technological solution to help bring this about which many appear to view as holding great promise is that of software-defined radio, SDR. In this regard, there is a very interesting report posted at »content.ce.org/PDF/2K12_5Tech_Web.pdf . In particular, I call your attention to Chapter 5, Buy Spectrum. They"ve Stopped Making It. by Jack Cutts. Scroll down to page 8, and the paragraph beginning "Fortunately there is an emerging..."

There is much to read and ponder in this piece, but most striking is the vision communicated of a device which roams the spectrum freely, and, once again, reference is made to the tantalizing promise of white space:

"While this technology may not necessarily use any one swath of spectrum more efficiently, it will allow mobile devices to use different spectrum bands wherever they happen to exist. At a more granular level, SDR can unlock the hidden potential of "white spaces" -- small chunks of spectrum that are licensed for specific uses but sit unused at any given time. A radio that can tune into the frequencies in these white spaces without interfering with licensed operators and devices can greatly enhance the efficient use of spectrum."

No, it ain't subspace radio! That won't be around for a while, as Trekkers know! But it certainly would appear that very serious people are, in general, looking very seriously at how to address the spectrum crunch, and also that these very serious people are looking specifically at SDR as one promising path. Now obviously none of us can predict the future, of course. It may be that the promise of the concept of spectrum reuse, or of the SDR technology, will prove illusory.

But that does not detract one whit from my basic point that it is unrealistic to suppose that humanity will see the wireless Internet recklessly sailing toward the rocky shores of the spectrum crunch and simply sit back and do nothing. I therefore suggest that anyone reading the above who believes that, in fact, we are headed to a wireless Internet consumer product with lower caps and less connectivity needs to base those arguments on situations in the past where humanity has chosen NOT to improve on a technology that they continued to use on a regular basis; off-hand, I cannot think of a single such example, but I am open to correction if that is the case.

In another thread, Max Signal asked how I would define current reality in the wireless Internet industry, and indicated that a definition of timeliness could only be arrived at after arriving at such a definition. I have attempted to supply a narrow answer above. As for time, well, if one looks at the speed and duration with which human beings have developed technologies in the past, and the pace at which they have improved those technologies subsequently, it's possible, I suppose, to hazard a guess with regard to the time humanity will take to address, and to compensate for, the spectrum crunch. So, while a simple guess, I find Kevin Fitchard's estimate of 2025 to be as good as any, -- in other words, twelve years away.

I would be very interested in reading from other users on this web site their take on the above. Are we headed for greater limits on wireless Internet usage over the next decade, lower data caps, higher prices? Or will humanity's eternal striving to improve, and perfect, get us past this spectrum crunch to an era where wireless Internet will be as ubiquitous and available as is the telephone today?

If the latter, how will that be achieved? What promising technologies are on the horizon that may help get us there?

I look forward to your feedback. In particular, I believe there may be users on this web site who are intimately involved, possibly as professionals, in this area, and whose expertise in that regard, therefore, might prove invaluable to the development of this discussion.

Thank you for your attention!