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elefante72

join:2010-12-03
East Amherst, NY

2 recommendations

reply to Nightfall

Re: Just a drop in the bucket

I read Google fibre is about $600 per POP. So I would put Verizon somewhere in the $800 per POP range circa 2014. Maybe someone from Verizon can chime in, but that is what I am seeing at broadcast locations today... Fibre is actually cheaper than copper now, physically and will continue to be.

Verizon runs a hybrid IP/SONET network (PON) which isn't ideal (GF is IP (WDM-PON)), however when they started deploying MetroE was way too expensive. BPONS are pretty much tapped, and GPONs will be in 4-5 years, so upgrading the NID in a cost effective manner will be the big money decision, but ye olde fibre will outlive me in the ground. That is why Verizon charges $$$ for anything over 75, it has to recover it's costs and it wants to keep utilization down.

Trenching (putting the cable in the ground) is 75% of the cost, so if you can get 100 years out of fibre you will be saving MASSIVE amounts of money.

I'm sorry but chasing the DSL/copper bug is dead. If it's not coax of fibre, its a dinosaur in the Smithsonian.


Nightfall
My Goal Is To Deny Yours
Premium,MVM
join:2001-08-03
Grand Rapids, MI
Reviews:
·ooma
·Comcast
·Callcentric
said by elefante72:

I read Google fibre is about $600 per POP. So I would put Verizon somewhere in the $800 per POP range circa 2014. Maybe someone from Verizon can chime in, but that is what I am seeing at broadcast locations today... Fibre is actually cheaper than copper now, physically and will continue to be.

Do you have a link or source to back this up?

Back in 2011, a profitability study was done on FIOS and found it to be much more.

»www.businessweek.com/magazine/co···9606.htm

quote:
Frontier's proposed pricing moves suggest to Craig Moffett, a telecom analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein (AB), that FiOS does not turn a profit for Verizon, either. Moffett says his view is reinforced by Verizon's announcement in 2010 that it would effectively freeze its FiOS footprint. "It was a tacit admission that building new networks is a losing proposition," he says. "Frontier is saying that even operating them after they're built might not be worth it." He estimates the project will end up having cost Verizon $4,000 per connected home. Moffett calculates the present value of acquired subscribers at $3,200 each.

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My domain - Nightfall.net

jjeffeory

join:2002-12-04
USA
reply to elefante72
Verizon trenches their cable? Not from what I've seen...

I Northern Virginia in the DC suburbs, they just throw the cable in the woods and vegetation grows up around it. Comcast does the same thing. I don't know about Cox, as they're in Fairfax county and it looked to me that they were a little neater.

I went house buying there a couple of years ago, and saw this time and time again at many locations.

Therefore if trenching is 75% of the costs, then Verizon is avoiding that cost in some areas of their footprint.

sonicmerlin

join:2009-05-24
Cleveland, OH
kudos:1
reply to elefante72
GPON won't be "tapped" for eons. I don't know where you're getting that idea. That's 2.4 gbps shared amongst 32 people. Google easily offers 1 gbps over GPON. Sonys offering a 2 gbps service in japan over GPON. Verizon charges so much because they can. And XGPON is available and coming down in costs.

sonicmerlin

join:2009-05-24
Cleveland, OH
kudos:1
reply to Nightfall
The cost of $4000 is per "connected home", meaning you have to consider uptake rate. The higher the uptake rate, the lower the cost. But cost per any home, connected or not, should be in the very low 1000's.


Nightfall
My Goal Is To Deny Yours
Premium,MVM
join:2001-08-03
Grand Rapids, MI
Reviews:
·ooma
·Comcast
·Callcentric
said by sonicmerlin:

The cost of $4000 is per "connected home", meaning you have to consider uptake rate. The higher the uptake rate, the lower the cost. But cost per any home, connected or not, should be in the very low 1000's.

I guess I don't understand the uptake rate that you are talking about. I will do some searching on it. Do you have a link that may explain it for me?

Also, does the uptake rate also take into account other connectivity such as copper or cable?
--
My domain - Nightfall.net

sonicmerlin

join:2009-05-24
Cleveland, OH
kudos:1
Meaning if an ISP builds out fiber to 10 homes, but only 2 of them take up the service, then their uptake rate is 1/5 or 20%. So the cost of building out fiber to ten homes is spread out to only 2 paying households. So if it cost $1000 per home, it would be $10000 for all 10 homes, divided by 2 and you get $5000 per home.


Nightfall
My Goal Is To Deny Yours
Premium,MVM
join:2001-08-03
Grand Rapids, MI
Reviews:
·ooma
·Comcast
·Callcentric
said by sonicmerlin:

Meaning if an ISP builds out fiber to 10 homes, but only 2 of them take up the service, then their uptake rate is 1/5 or 20%. So the cost of building out fiber to ten homes is spread out to only 2 paying households. So if it cost $1000 per home, it would be $10000 for all 10 homes, divided by 2 and you get $5000 per home.

All signs point to FIOS not being profitable unless the customer is buying services for a period of 2.5-3 years. I hear you on the uptake rate, and it sounds plausible. At the same time though, it sounds pretty low. Even lower than FIOS estimates or the experts estimate.

So while I do agree that the uptake rate should go down depending on the amount of houses in an area that purchase the service, I don't think it goes down that much.
--
My domain - Nightfall.net