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Grothendieck
Premium Member
join:2002-07-28
Miami, FL

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Re: Elder Scrolls Online Doomed?

The GMG code 3MCRLE-CG7AF1-G7T08U doesnt work anymore?

If not, does anyone have any other code?

Thanks.

TheBionic
Funkier than a mohair disco ball.
Premium Member
join:2009-07-06
united state

TheBionic

Premium Member

I'd keep an eye on GMG, according to everyone else this is the third time they've offered the 20% off, maybe they will again? Game doesn't launch until April 4th...

Here's an Angry Joe video on PVP. He liked it a lot more than he did the PVE in his initial video. Looks a LOT like GW2 WvWvW to me. Which is a good thing.

»www.youtube.com/watch?v= ··· pz60iGL0

Nightfall
My Goal Is To Deny Yours
MVM
join:2001-08-03
Grand Rapids, MI

Nightfall

MVM

The main reason why I played Warhammer Online for so long was the PvP and the keep raiding. The problem was that it was laggy as hell to play. After a few patches, the developers gave up on the game and the keep raids went from fun to annoying.

This look into the PVP is just what I wanted to see. I like how buttery smooth it is. It just reinforces my decision that I made a good choice to try this game out.

monchis
Premium Member
join:2002-12-09
00000

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Off topic but I can't stand that guy.

El Quintron
Cancel Culture Ambassador
Premium Member
join:2008-04-28
Tronna

El Quintron

Premium Member

said by monchis:

Off topic but I can't stand that guy.

Really? I just heard about this guys recently and I find his reviews to be pretty spot on, he tells you what he likes and compares it to the game at hand, which gives you an opportunity to make a fair call.

monchis
Premium Member
join:2002-12-09
00000

monchis

Premium Member

said by El Quintron:

said by monchis:

Off topic but I can't stand that guy.

Really? I just heard about this guys recently and I find his reviews to be pretty spot on, he tells you what he likes and compares it to the game at hand, which gives you an opportunity to make a fair call.

I lose focus on what he's saying due to his hand gestures and tones. I just can't concentrate lol

But yep youre not the first to say his reviews are good.
gaforces (banned)
United We Stand, Divided We Fall
join:2002-04-07
Santa Cruz, CA

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Click for full size
I took a screenshot from the last beta of my Templar.

Grothendieck
Premium Member
join:2002-07-28
Miami, FL

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By the way, NDA lifted.

El Quintron
Cancel Culture Ambassador
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join:2008-04-28
Tronna

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to monchis
said by monchis:

I lose focus on what he's saying due to his hand gestures and tones. I just can't concentrate lol

I'm French Canadian, we all talk with our hands flying all over the place, I'm used to it.

EQ

monchis
Premium Member
join:2002-12-09
00000

monchis

Premium Member

said by El Quintron:

said by monchis:

I lose focus on what he's saying due to his hand gestures and tones. I just can't concentrate lol

I'm French Canadian, we all talk with our hands flying all over the place, I'm used to it.

EQ

Guess that answers
monchis

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Click for full size
TheThing2
join:2014-03-05
New Haven, CT

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I think it was mike who said it a long time ago best... "stop making mmos people, you're not good at it"...

TESO is not going to work....TESO isn't free, isn't toony, and it isn't WoW

it's not going to steal players away from WoW, and it's not going to steal F2P players either... TESO will have a small hardcore following, that's it, that won't last, so some of you will play it for 3 months then leave? it wont work in the long run

it will then go F2P, and since this game isn't being designed from the ground up to be free to play, it is doomed... it will end up somewhere in the popularity of like a Tera or something...

I will never play Wildstar since it has a sub, but Wildstar will be more popular than this... maybe they know it will go F2P eventually, so it's just turning into an initial cash grab for the first year, just to recoup their lnitial development

TheBionic
Funkier than a mohair disco ball.
Premium Member
join:2009-07-06
united state

TheBionic

Premium Member

said by TheThing2:

TESO will have a small hardcore following, that's it, that won't last, so some of you will play it for 3 months then leave?

I freely admit this will probably be me. But I still dig the game now and am looking forward to it. I'll probably do the same with Everquest Next. I'm not a big "If I don't play this game until I die it sucks" kind of guy.

I thought I'd log back into GW2 more often since there's no sub but nope; as much as I like it there's too much other stuff I want to try and I get bored too easily.

Grimm
join:2011-05-23

Grimm

Member

This will most likely be me as well; more of a hold-me-over game tbh. My gaming schedule as of right now for the rest of the year will be(with some BF4 thrown in there):

Titanfall>ESO>Destiny

Nightfall
My Goal Is To Deny Yours
MVM
join:2001-08-03
Grand Rapids, MI

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said by TheThing2:

TESO will have a small hardcore following, that's it, that won't last, so some of you will play it for 3 months then leave? it wont work in the long run

If that is the case, and I play it for 100 hours in 3 months, is that a bad deal? Thats $90 of investment for 100 hours of play time which is cheaper than $1 an hour.

I think the issue here is that people think about playing an MMO for 5-10 years and if it hangs on for only 6 months its a waste. Gaming itself is more about entertainment. Every hour we spend playing games had better be fun. If its fun, then we are achieving our goal. If we hit the movies, we would be spending $10 for 2 hours of entertainment. Hit the bar? Depending on your drinking and eating habits, it could be $50 for 3 hours or more.

Ghastlyone
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join:2009-01-07
Nashville, TN

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Personally, I don't ever see myself playing a single game for years on end again, like WoW.

Those days are over with for me.

But hey, who knows, maybe something will come along again and change that for me.

Tirael
BOHICA
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join:2009-03-18
Sacramento, CA

3 recommendations

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said by TheThing2:

TESO is not going to work....TESO isn't free, isn't toony, and it isn't WoW

it's not going to steal players away from WoW, and it's not going to steal F2P players either... TESO will have a small hardcore following, that's it, that won't last, so some of you will play it for 3 months then leave? it wont work in the long run

it will then go F2P, and since this game isn't being designed from the ground up to be free to play, it is doomed... it will end up somewhere in the popularity of like a Tera or something...

The first part of this is just ignorant. People won't play a game because it isn't "toony". Excuse my while I grab my hip waders.

I like to make assumptions based on what a game needs to be profitable. If 1/10th of the people who bought skyrim (20 million x 0.10 = 2 million), then the game will make 120 million out the gate (which does not include digital/physical CE numbers). After 3 months (2 months technically because the first month is free), the game will make another 60 mil.

But let's go even further, let's assume all but 100,000 people hate TESO. The 100,000 players left continue playing for the duration of a year (9 months at this point). The game will make another 13.5 mil over the course of its first year. That will bring it's grand total earnings over 1 year to 193.5 mil.

This means that after one year, the game will be profitable. So even under your own assumptions, the game is still a success.

Ghastlyone
Premium Member
join:2009-01-07
Nashville, TN

Ghastlyone

Premium Member

Haha...I love Tirael's math figures.

We used to get them all the time.

Glad you're back posting

Tirael
BOHICA
Premium Member
join:2009-03-18
Sacramento, CA

Tirael

Premium Member

The only thing that sucks about me posting is that it usually shuts down threads. LOGIC! (and such)

Nightfall
My Goal Is To Deny Yours
MVM
join:2001-08-03
Grand Rapids, MI

Nightfall

MVM

said by Tirael:

The only thing that sucks about me posting is that it usually shuts down threads. LOGIC! (and such)

/thread

Mcrobrewer
Premium Member
join:2001-03-04
Trenton, NJ

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said by Tirael:

The only thing that sucks about me posting is that it usually shuts down threads. LOGIC! (and such)

Can u point me to where TESO'S development and ongoing running expenses are listed?

Thanks in advance

Cat5
join:2013-04-26

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It depends on what you judge the success of a game on.

Due to ESO's pricing and the amount of people who will buy it on release the game is a sure fire profit maker, so therefore a success.

If you judge success on longevity, then ESO is unlikely to last much past the timeframe RIFT or SWTOR lasted before having to adopt F2P or Pay to Win models.

The sad truth is that these days most game developers want the cash asap. Once they've made that cash they will move onto to the next game. When WoW launched, MMO's were still fairly underground and the developers actually cared about more than just wild profits. EQ, Vanguard, etc. all had really small communities compared to today's figures, but the playerbase stuck with them and handed over the cash, it just took longer.

The next big MMO needs to go back to basics. Start off small and relativley cheap, lure the hardcore in with a decent game and mechanics and allow it to spread via word of mouth. An MMO isn't a year or two year thing, it's a living, breathing World of it's own and needs time and dedication.

Ast1
@80.79.208.x

Ast1

Anon

Really depends on what ZOS consider a success.
SWTOR went F2P but my understanding is even now they have about 500k subs.
Meanwhile, FFXIV has 5-600k subs and to them it is a resounding success and they are vey happy with such numbers and keeping sub style.
FFXXI never had as many subs as XIV and yet is a 'successful' game

I believe 100k subscribers is enough to keep 15 or so devs on full time and cover costs for keeping a game going (just an estimate based on what I have heard some Devs talk about regarding other games), so anymore is profit...it just depends how much profit is enough for a game - and how much money was initially spent. DUe to ESO's high start price I would expect them to get most of their money back via box sales which takes a lot of pressure off.

Cat5
join:2013-04-26

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Look at Runescape. Dirt cheap to play yet a resounding success. Quite how it still has as many players in this day and age (i.e. when a decent MMO like RIFT is free) is beyond me, but I guess it's because they've been good to the playerbase.

Nightfall
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said by Ast1 :

Really depends on what ZOS consider a success.
SWTOR went F2P but my understanding is even now they have about 500k subs.
Meanwhile, FFXIV has 5-600k subs and to them it is a resounding success and they are vey happy with such numbers and keeping sub style.
FFXXI never had as many subs as XIV and yet is a 'successful' game

I believe 100k subscribers is enough to keep 15 or so devs on full time and cover costs for keeping a game going (just an estimate based on what I have heard some Devs talk about regarding other games), so anymore is profit...it just depends how much profit is enough for a game - and how much money was initially spent. DUe to ESO's high start price I would expect them to get most of their money back via box sales which takes a lot of pressure off.

There are many more examples of MMOs out there that have decent subscriber numbers and still raking in cash. Look at Ultima Online for instance, the first real MMORPG IMHO, still has 100,000 subs today. Thats simply huge for an MMORPG that has been out since 1997.

What the developer considers to be a success and what the public considers to be a success are two different things. I am sure that some people consider EVE to be a failure even when they have strong subscriber numbers. Heck, some gaming community members consider WoW to be dying because it is losing subscriber numbers.

ESO won't be the next WoW, but I do believe it will have strong following. I don't think it is going to go F2P in the first year.
TheThing2
join:2014-03-05
New Haven, CT

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a lot of you said the same thing I was thinking.

It depends on what you consider a "success" to be

I read that TESO is costing 200million to make, so breaking even the first year, or getting close to breaking even the first year could be deemed a success, but I think breaking even the first year is a stretch. Because of the ongoing development/support costs for that first year, and because trying to convert console gamers to a sub is going to be much more difficult than one time purchases like Skyrim

Maybe they understand that having a sub forever is unrealistic. you would think so. so maybe their plan all along is just to break even the first year or two, switch to free to play, and then go from there.

as long as this is part of their "intentional" design with a valid free to play model afterwards maybe it will have a solid player base that persists, like Tera or SWTOR

mmorpgs being toony and being a success, has nothing to do with being "ignorant", kris was talking about it yesterday.. the uncanny valley. and I think that this issue applies to general immersion of games overall, and keeping players hooked

just from looking at the game already, and watching my friend play it, it does suffer from uncanny valley issues, that t00ny games don't

uncanny valley for immersion is simply that if an environment approaches realistic, but is slightly off, your brain rejects it, as odd. BUT if it is t00ny and not trying to be realistic, your brain won't reject it because its "close"

Carpie
join:2012-10-19
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said by Tirael:

That will bring it's grand total earnings over 1 year to 193.5 mil.

That's gross, not earnings. Need to factor in the costs to make, market, etc.
said by TheThing2:

I read that TESO is costing 200million to make,

If this were true, they wouldn't be in the green until next year based on Tirael's logic. And even then, would the ROI be strong enough when compared to the opportunity cost?

TheBionic
Funkier than a mohair disco ball.
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said by TheThing2:

Maybe they understand that having a sub forever is unrealistic. you would think so. so maybe their plan all along is just to break even the first year or two, switch to free to play, and then go from there.

This is what I think. They see the market trends the same way as we do. They're going to charge a sub and recoup as much of their initial investment as possible while the game's hot. If the player base will support the sub for the long term, that's great. If not, you can bet they will have a f2p model primed and ready to go. I'm guessing subs will drop off dramatically in the first six months and they'll implement it in a year or so.
TheThing2
join:2014-03-05
New Haven, CT

TheThing2

Member

My long term guess would say, Wildstar will be more successful, at least initially (2-3 years), than TESO. However, once Everquest Next comes out, I could see Wildstar dying and TESO to continue to survive.

Ast1
@213.152.245.x

1 recommendation

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I believe ZOS dismissed that $200M as nonsense. A Forbes article stated that number and there appeared to be nothing backing it up. I believe ZOS had even stated that had the game cost $200M it would already be a failure in terms of 'what they produced vs that much cost'.

Though even if it did cost $200M, as someone stated before, if 10% of Skyrims fanbase bought the game that is $120M not including CE sales which I believe may even have outsold the standard. That doesn't include MMOers buying the game which they will - a mix of curiosity and boredom and looking for the 'next big thing' will mean initial sales are pretty healthy (pretty much every MMO sells a lot right out the gate - hence the massive sub slide soon after). Include that bunch in and CE versions and you are probably talking close to $200M made purely on sales, which means production costs are already covered (and if ZOS were honest about $200M being more than they spent then they are already in profit).

With 100K subscribers you are talking about $1.5M (likely less due to multimonth discount) a month which should be more than enought to cover maintenance and Dev costs (unless keeping a very big or expensive team, so lets say 150K subs required to 'break even') that means every sub beyond is profit, with 500K players that would be $7.5M a month, minus 150K subs or $2.25M, leaves you at $5.25M profit a month, is that enough? Add in expansions which you can pretty much guarantee a subscriber would purhase means even more money.

So making profit isn't hard, it just depends on how much is good enough. The problem is, becaue of the WoW effect which had an obscene amount of subscribers, companies seem to have unrealistic expectation on sub numbers and visions of crazy amounts of money that could bring.

The game will not be the next WoW and will never be close to that kind of number, but it doesn't need to be in order to be profitable.