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aurgathor
join:2002-12-01
Lynnwood, WA

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Re: [Green Tech] Solar panels: doing the math...

Given the roughly 3:1 ratio between utility's sell and buy prices, you're not likely to make any significant amount of money by selling excess electricity back to the utility -- that means that the minimum amount of panels you want installed should be enough to cover your daytime usage during the summer, and the maximum should probably be no more than twice as much. Personally, I'd probably go for about 25% - 50% over the minimum. But whatever amount you install, it should be done in a way that if you want, you could easily add additional panels in the future.

While there is no practical way to store electricity right now (for the purpose of this discussion, I don't consider batteries practical) that is likely to change in the future. For example, Hyundai will introduce another fuel cell hybrid this year, and I think sooner or later, someone will come up with a home refueling station, meaning that people may be able to generate their own hydrogen.

robbin
Mod
join:2000-09-21
Leander, TX

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And in some they are exempt. Have you checked their status in your state?
XXXXXXXXXXX1
Premium Member
join:2006-01-11
Beverly Hills, CA

XXXXXXXXXXX1 to aurgathor

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to aurgathor
I'll finish my homework and think about it, but at this point, I think this will be a no-go. Once you factor increased property taxes, increased homeowner's insurance, any increased metering fees, and the realistic electricity generated by the panels, the break-even point is probably 10+ years away even with the tax credits. Way too long to break even, and I don't find my current $0.16/kWh obscenely high. Honestly, I'd probably get more bang for the buck changing behaviors and looking for smaller issues that can add up.

Maybe there'll come a day the math will work; solar is a great idea overall. Today ain't that day.
XXXXXXXXXXX1

XXXXXXXXXXX1 to robbin

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to robbin
said by robbin:

And in some they are exempt. Have you checked their status in your state?

Yes, I have- panels not tax exempt. Anything moving or stationary is taxed here.

robbin
Mod
join:2000-09-21
Leander, TX

robbin

Mod

said by XXXXXXXXXXX1:

Yes, I have- panels not tax exempt

said by XXXXXXXXXXX1:

Here in CT, property taxes are high already.

"Connecticut provides a property tax exemption for "Class I" renewable energy systems* and hydropower facilities** that generate electricity for private residential use...A "Class I renewable energy source" is defined as “(A) energy derived from solar power, wind power, a fuel cell, methane gas from landfills, ocean thermal power, wave or tidal power, low emission advanced renewable energy conversion technologies, a run-of-the-river hydropower facility provided such facility has a generating capacity of not more than five megawatts"

»energy.gov/savings/prope ··· -systems

So what am I missing here?

nunya
LXI 483
MVM
join:2000-12-23
O Fallon, MO
·Charter

2 recommendations

nunya

MVM

"private residential use". If you intend to sell back to the POCO, it makes it a "for profit" (even if it really isn't profitable).

For the OP original topic:
I will hurt a lot of feelings here - there are a lot of solar blowhards on this forum. The truth is, unless you live in the Southwest or South of the Mason Dixon line, solar is nothing more than a "feelgood" item. Without taxpayer subsidies (which are being questioned more and more), there really is nothing advantageous about individual solar unless you are truly living "off grid".
The "feelgood" portion of solar panels gets eroded way when you consider the amount of energy and waste involved in the manufacturing process (solar's "dirty" little secret). An even harsher reality is coming down the road - dealing with dead solar panels.
Individual solar is not the answer. Large scale solar production is (partly).
All of these "too good to be true" ROI numbers are provided by... salesmen and marketing.

Jack_in_VA
Premium Member
join:2007-11-26
North, VA

3 edits

Jack_in_VA

Premium Member

Good post nunya and just about covers it.

there are a lot of solar blowhards on this forum

And none of them have solar themselves. It seems to me if solar was so great they would have panels themselves. That is curious since many are so in favor of and advocate installing panels. I guess it's just easy to recommend spending other people's money. There is only one poster from NC (Ke4pym) that has solar and the jury is out on that one IMO but he has been willing to keep us very well informed.

I've never been able to make the numbers match. A day or two ago I went to several sites that let you calculate your cost and savings. The cheapest I found was for 50 percent of my demand.

»Re: [Green Tech] Solar panels: doing the math...

After fed tax break the cost was $27,000 which I would have to get a loan for. I would see a $72/mo savings but still have $78/mo to the POCO for the other half. Break even on the ROI would be 19.2 years making me 89 years old. Yea right!

aurgathor
join:2002-12-01
Lynnwood, WA

aurgathor to nunya

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said by nunya:

The truth is, unless you live in the Southwest or South of the Mason Dixon line, solar is nothing more than a "feelgood" item.

Or unless you live in Hawaii, as per previous discussion.
Critsmcgee
join:2011-12-02

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said by XXXXXXXXXXX1:

said by robbin:

How did you calculate future cost of electricity?

I didn't, only used the current cost and assumed no increases (which is unrealistic, I know). My power is currently at $0.16 per kWh, but I don't know how it would move over the payback time of the panels.

It's predicted to increase 2-3% over the next 5 years. Most people think 3-5% after that so just say 3% annual increase on power rates.
Critsmcgee

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said by XXXXXXXXXXX1:

I'll finish my homework and think about it, but at this point, I think this will be a no-go. Once you factor increased property taxes, increased homeowner's insurance, any increased metering fees, and the realistic electricity generated by the panels, the break-even point is probably 10+ years away even with the tax credits. Way too long to break even, and I don't find my current $0.16/kWh obscenely high. Honestly, I'd probably get more bang for the buck changing behaviors and looking for smaller issues that can add up.

Maybe there'll come a day the math will work; solar is a great idea overall. Today ain't that day.

Solar panels are 100% property tax exempt. HoA's don't increase for solar panels either unless you are adding supplement insurance on the panels. Your RoI is similar to mine so you're looking at about 6-7 years.
»www.dsireusa.org/incenti ··· e=0&ee=0

Not to mention there should be other incentives offered by your utilities in addition to the 30% federal credit. In Massachusetts here they give you up to a 15% credit on your state taxes for solar. There is also state incentives here.

"Block 16 Rebate Levels (capacity measured in DC @ STC)

Base Incentive: $0.40/watt
Massachusetts Company Components Adder: $0.05/watt
Moderate Home Value or Moderate Income Adder: $0.40/watt (residential projects only)
Natural Disaster Relief Adder: $1.00/watt"

cowboyro
Premium Member
join:2000-10-11
CT

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I did my calculations too and being in the same area as you it was not worth it, at least not with the current costs.
Electricity costs may go up 2-3%/year, but if I had $30k to throw away I'd put them in the market and get an average 8-10% easily, with very low-risk investments.
However, at least with UI, rates have shifted very much in the last year or so, peak rate is near $0.30/kWh so that may change the dynamics of the game significantly if they do a 100% reimbursment for all cost components.
If I could get a payoff of 5 years I would be really, really interested...
Critsmcgee
join:2011-12-02

Critsmcgee

Member

said by cowboyro:

I did my calculations too and being in the same area as you it was not worth it, at least not with the current costs.
Electricity costs may go up 2-3%/year, but if I had $30k to throw away I'd put them in the market and get an average 8-10% easily, with very low-risk investments.
However, at least with UI, rates have shifted very much in the last year or so, peak rate is near $0.30/kWh so that may change the dynamics of the game significantly if they do a 100% reimbursment for all cost components.
If I could get a payoff of 5 years I would be really, really interested...

They increase property value on top of their electric production they just don't increase the tax rate. People seem to forget about their value when doing calcs that only take production into account. That's not a TRUE RoI.
Critsmcgee

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Connecticut has a rebate by the state.

"Customer-owned: first 5 kW: $1.75/W, for the next 5 kW up to and including 10 kW: $0.55/W
Third-party-owned: $0.300/kWh for six years"
»www.dsireusa.org/incenti ··· e=0&ee=0

There is also some grants you can get which are like $400-600 each for like $2,500-3,000 total.

That's the problem with trying to figure stuff out yourself. You miss stuff just like the HR Block commercials that says people lost $1 billion in tax rebates a year.
XXXXXXXXXXX1
Premium Member
join:2006-01-11
Beverly Hills, CA

XXXXXXXXXXX1

Premium Member

Even if CT doesn't add property taxes, nunya raises some good points. After the useful life of the panels, what will disposal costs be? And what is the metering charge for net metering. And I still don't know what the cost would be to remove and reinstall the panels if/when shingles need to be replaced on the roof. Too many uncertainties in this scenario. I think I'm going to look for practical, low cost efficiencies that can reap realistic benefits. If the tax credits expire, either solar will stand up and walk on its own, or the market will collapse and solar will go away until POCO rates spike, panel prices come way down, or both. I think I'll hold tight and see hold this unfolds.
Critsmcgee
join:2011-12-02

Critsmcgee

Member

said by XXXXXXXXXXX1:

After the useful life of the panels, what will disposal costs be?

After the useful life of your siding, roof, asphalt, or anything else you have costs. What do you do when your swedish rider costs more to repair then it's worth? Now you have a disposal fee. The goal is to make it worth it or save enough during the life of the item to cover the costs.
XXXXXXXXXXX1
Premium Member
join:2006-01-11
Beverly Hills, CA

XXXXXXXXXXX1

Premium Member

Everything has a disposal cost, but do the panels have any toxins that would increase the price over just throwing them in the dump?
ke4pym
Premium Member
join:2004-07-24
Charlotte, NC

ke4pym to seaquake

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said by seaquake:

Replying to the OP, but my question is for the folks who have systems installed. After having an array installed, did it affect your home hazard insurance premiums, and if so, by how much? My suspicion is that it would cause an increase (maybe a slight one, maybe not so slight) which should also be figured in to the ROI.

It did not. My current policy is sufficient enough to cover the array and also covers enough hazard insurance to satisify the power companies insurance requirement. YMMV.
ke4pym

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to XXXXXXXXXXX1
said by XXXXXXXXXXX1:

I don't know about homeowner's insurance, but in some states, the new panels would trigger a revaluation for property tax purposes. Here in CT, property taxes are high already.

In NC, the local county tax man cannot tax the value of the panels.
ke4pym

ke4pym to nunya

Premium Member

to nunya
said by nunya:

"The "feelgood" portion of solar panels gets eroded way when you consider the amount of energy and waste involved in the manufacturing process (solar's "dirty" little secret).

Generally speaking, solar panels get out of debt no later than year 4 (depending on the technology used):

»www.mnn.com/earth-matter ··· generate

»www.theverge.com/2013/4/ ··· -consume
XXXXXXXXXXX1
Premium Member
join:2006-01-11
Beverly Hills, CA

1 edit

XXXXXXXXXXX1 to cowboyro

Premium Member

to cowboyro
said by cowboyro:

However, at least with UI, rates have shifted very much in the last year or so, peak rate is near $0.30/kWh

What is your total cost for electricity through UI (per kWh)? Are you on a TOU plan?

cowboyro
Premium Member
join:2000-10-11
CT

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to Critsmcgee
said by Critsmcgee:

They increase property value on top of their electric production they just don't increase the tax rate. People seem to forget about their value when doing calcs that only take production into account. That's not a TRUE RoI.

Property value increase is worth nothing unless you sell the house. And as they age and the roof ages, they cause a cost increase for replacing the roof. And an extra cost on the insurance.
cowboyro

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UI with RT (TOU) rate. Boils down to about 0.15/0.29 off-peak / peak. I use an alternate generation provider too..

Jack_in_VA
Premium Member
join:2007-11-26
North, VA

Jack_in_VA to Critsmcgee

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to Critsmcgee

It's predicted to increase 2-3% over the next 5 years. Most people think 3-5% after that so just say 3% annual increase on power rates.

Ours has been stable except for a reduction because of lower fuel costs. We have not seen any increase much less 2 or 3 percent.
Jack_in_VA

1 edit

Jack_in_VA to Critsmcgee

Premium Member

to Critsmcgee
said by Critsmcgee:

said by XXXXXXXXXXX1:

I'll finish my homework and think about it, but at this point, I think this will be a no-go. Once you factor increased property taxes, increased homeowner's insurance, any increased metering fees, and the realistic electricity generated by the panels, the break-even point is probably 10+ years away even with the tax credits. Way too long to break even, and I don't find my current $0.16/kWh obscenely high. Honestly, I'd probably get more bang for the buck changing behaviors and looking for smaller issues that can add up.

Maybe there'll come a day the math will work; solar is a great idea overall. Today ain't that day.

Solar panels are 100% property tax exempt. HoA's don't increase for solar panels either unless you are adding supplement insurance on the panels. Your RoI is similar to mine so you're looking at about 6-7 years.
»www.dsireusa.org/incenti ··· e=0&ee=0

Not to mention there should be other incentives offered by your utilities in addition to the 30% federal credit. In Massachusetts here they give you up to a 15% credit on your state taxes for solar. There is also state incentives here.

"Block 16 Rebate Levels (capacity measured in DC @ STC)

Base Incentive: $0.40/watt
Massachusetts Company Components Adder: $0.05/watt
Moderate Home Value or Moderate Income Adder: $0.40/watt (residential projects only)
Natural Disaster Relief Adder: $1.00/watt"

I've been to numerous sites and used numerous calculators and none match your figures. The cheapest I found was $27,000 after federal tax and no state. This was for 1/2 of my demand saving $72/mo. I still would have >$75/mo POCO and the loan payment. ROI was 19.2 years. Figures don't lie but perceptions can be deceiving.

I also had a on site evaluation which mirrored my online but with the roof is facing the wrong direction and not enough surface area. So I can forget it.
Jack_in_VA

Jack_in_VA to cowboyro

Premium Member

to cowboyro
said by cowboyro:

I did my calculations too and being in the same area as you it was not worth it, at least not with the current costs.
Electricity costs may go up 2-3%/year, but if I had $30k to throw away I'd put them in the market and get an average 8-10% easily, with very low-risk investments.
However, at least with UI, rates have shifted very much in the last year or so, peak rate is near $0.30/kWh so that may change the dynamics of the game significantly if they do a 100% reimbursment for all cost components.
If I could get a payoff of 5 years I would be really, really interested...

I think that is what most people would find also. I know I did. My POCO rate is about $0.10/kWh including all taxes and fees.
Jack_in_VA

Jack_in_VA to Critsmcgee

Premium Member

to Critsmcgee
said by Critsmcgee:

said by cowboyro:

I did my calculations too and being in the same area as you it was not worth it, at least not with the current costs.
Electricity costs may go up 2-3%/year, but if I had $30k to throw away I'd put them in the market and get an average 8-10% easily, with very low-risk investments.
However, at least with UI, rates have shifted very much in the last year or so, peak rate is near $0.30/kWh so that may change the dynamics of the game significantly if they do a 100% reimbursment for all cost components.
If I could get a payoff of 5 years I would be really, really interested...

They increase property value on top of their electric production they just don't increase the tax rate. People seem to forget about their value when doing calcs that only take production into account. That's not a TRUE RoI.

That is useless unless they are going to sell the house in a very few years. Increasing the property value might be bad as the real estate tax would be more.
Jack_in_VA

Jack_in_VA to ke4pym

Premium Member

to ke4pym
said by ke4pym:

said by nunya:

"The "feelgood" portion of solar panels gets eroded way when you consider the amount of energy and waste involved in the manufacturing process (solar's "dirty" little secret).

Generally speaking, solar panels get out of debt no later than year 4 (depending on the technology used):

»www.mnn.com/earth-matter ··· generate

»www.theverge.com/2013/4/ ··· -consume

How much loan do you have on the panels? Will it be paid off in 4 years and how many years to recover the amount of the loan?
XXXXXXXXXXX1
Premium Member
join:2006-01-11
Beverly Hills, CA

1 edit

XXXXXXXXXXX1 to cowboyro

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to cowboyro
said by cowboyro:

UI with RT (TOU) rate. Boils down to about 0.15/0.29 off-peak / peak. I use an alternate generation provider too..

That seems expensive. I have CL&P and use Dominion for generation, and it's currently $0.16/kWh out the door for the fixed plan. What would your total price be on a fixed plan?!?

fifty nine
join:2002-09-25
Sussex, NJ

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Here in NJ you aren't allowed to grid tie a system that generates more than your estimated usage. They look at the last year of electric bills. So you can't really generate and sell back to the utility. You might sell a little excess but you won't be making a lot of money.

cowboyro
Premium Member
join:2000-10-11
CT

cowboyro to XXXXXXXXXXX1

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said by XXXXXXXXXXX1:

What would your total price be on a fixed plan?!?

About 9.7c on top of generation, but they would automatically put me on RT since I am using more than 2000kWh/month.
I have no idea what I am paying now TBH. They seem to be changing rates every other month. Some components have increased and other have decreased at the beginning of the year.
Net I paid $504 for 2777kWh on the last bill, out of which 2053 were peak and 724 off-peak (non-typical usage, there was someone home all day long and it was very cold).
It boils down to 0.17/kWh average. Summer rates are higher though.