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mbernste
Boosted
Premium,MVM
join:2001-06-30
Piscataway, NJ

Now that Comcast is buying Time-Warner Cable...

Some thoughts on how I think this could affect us Cablevision subscribers. This is all predicated on SEC approval, which is not a fait accompli.

1. This frees Charter to make another acquisition, for example, Cablevision. We're a cheap buy when compared to TWC.
2. Expect the TWC areas in NJ to become Comcast.
3. Staten Island and Manhattan will become Comcast.
4. NJ areas that are TWC (Leonia, etc) will become Comcast.
5. Queens/Brooklyn TWC may get sold to Cablevision to please the SEC (possible) which would homogenize Cablevision's footprint on Long Island.
6. Cablevision might try yet again to go private to either stave off a hostile Charter takeover or to make it easier to sell, all depending on what the Dolans are thinking. Keep in mind they sold Bresnan to Charter, so there is precedent.

Thoughts?



Spinal

@rcn.com

TWC NYC area (Boros, NJ, Hudson Valley) will be a whole and will become comcasts crown jewel along with SoCal/LA. Expect the 3 million Comcast needs to shed to be smaller markets like Maine or Alabany.



Jackarino
YacCity
Premium
join:2006-12-28
Allendale, NJ
kudos:1
reply to mbernste

I was surprised by this move, I thought for sure Charter would but out TWC, but so it goes.



tito79

join:2010-03-14
Brewster, NY
kudos:1

There is already trial versions of Comcast services for the past 2 years Comcast has service in manhattan to lots of residents so this is just to close out the deal.



actor90
Never a dull moment
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Jackson, NJ
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reply to mbernste

said by mbernste:

1. This frees Charter to make another acquisition, for example, Cablevision. We're a cheap buy when compared to TWC.

Actually I think this pretty much guarantees that Cablevision will stay as is or, on the unlikely chance of a sale, be bought by Comcast. It would make no economic sense at this point if this deal between Comcast and TWC goes through for Charter to buy a cable operator surrounded by Comcast on every border.


Thinkdiff
Premium,MVM
join:2001-08-07
Bronx, NY
kudos:11
reply to tito79

Manhattan is TWC territory. Where is there Comcast service?
--
University of Southern California - Fight On!



actor90
Never a dull moment
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reply to mbernste

The more I think about it, it would actually make much more sense for Comcast to try to acquire Cablevision then let it be. It will surround Cablevision on all borders, and would be relatively cost neutral to acquire cablevision and merge it's systems into existing Comcast operations. It makes sense because both Comcast and Cablevision have done the major upgrades to infrastructure unlike TWC. For example in my area Comcast would probably hook Jackson township off the head end it operates in Manchester Township which is part of the Comcast of Toms River operations which has offices on Route 37.


root

join:2002-12-11
reply to actor90

said by actor90:

said by mbernste:

1. This frees Charter to make another acquisition, for example, Cablevision. We're a cheap buy when compared to TWC.

Actually I think this pretty much guarantees that Cablevision will stay as is or, on the unlikely chance of a sale, be bought by Comcast. It would make no economic sense at this point if this deal between Comcast and TWC goes through for Charter to buy a cable operator surrounded by Comcast on every border.

When Rutledge was apart of Cablevision he pushed to buy out Bresnan in the West which has nothing connected to any Cablevision footprint. Now that Rutledge is with Charter he bought the West from Cablevision. He knows the intellectual property Cablevision has and I'm sure he sees the value in applying it to Charters systems.


actor90
Never a dull moment
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Jackson, NJ
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The Dollan's would probably only sell the cable operations and keep the rest. In that situation it makes zero sense to buy out a well maintained cable system that have customers that are receiving high levels of service and will expect that to continue. That are also surrounded by the largest cable operator in the country on all sides.

This isn't Cablevision West that TWC and Comcast had zero interest in acquiring. This is Cablevision which serves the some of prime markets in this country. Comcast would be interested if Cablevision were on the selling block.



mbernste
Boosted
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join:2001-06-30
Piscataway, NJ
reply to actor90

said by actor90:

on the unlikely chance of a sale, be bought by Comcast

The FCC and SEC might not go for it. They may have an uphill battle with the FCC with the current acquisition.


mbernste
Boosted
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join:2001-06-30
Piscataway, NJ
reply to root

said by root:

He knows the intellectual property Cablevision has and I'm sure he sees the value in applying it to Charters systems.

Which is why I think its likely for Charter to make a play for Cablevision. It can also be part of a more strategic deal where Comcast sells some of its area systems to Charter so that it makes more geographic sense for them to acquire Cablevision. Comcast did almost the same exact thing with Patriot Media when it was spun off of RCN. One hint of this is if channel lineups in the "new" Comcast systems in the area start getting aligned to Cablevision's.


Thinkdiff
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join:2001-08-07
Bronx, NY
kudos:11

Presumably, Comcast would not be able to acquire Cablevision without shedding even more customers in other areas. They are already voluntarily selling off 3 million customers to stay under 30% of total market (thinking that will make the DOJ happy). If they wanted Cablevision's ~3 million subscribers as well, they'd presumably have to sell off another 3 million (6 total) customers from somewhere else. That's a pretty large portion of their network.
--
University of Southern California - Fight On!



Booost

@optonline.net
reply to actor90

said by actor90:

The more I think about it, it would actually make much more sense for Comcast to try to acquire Cablevision then let it be.

After spending all this money to get TWC, Comcast can't afford to buy CV.


actor90
Never a dull moment
Premium
join:2003-07-21
Jackson, NJ

1 recommendation

said by Booost :

After spending all this money to get TWC, Comcast can't afford to buy CV.

I think you under estimate how much Comcast can spend if it wants to.


actor90
Never a dull moment
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reply to Thinkdiff

said by Thinkdiff:

Presumably, Comcast would not be able to acquire Cablevision without shedding even more customers in other areas. They are already voluntarily selling off 3 million customers to stay under 30% of total market (thinking that will make the DOJ happy). If they wanted Cablevision's ~3 million subscribers as well, they'd presumably have to sell off another 3 million (6 total) customers from somewhere else. That's a pretty large portion of their network.

I can foresee Comncast shedding more of it's mid-west properties to Charter along with the TWC assets down south. After that acquiring Cablevision's 3 million would not be an issue.


actor90
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reply to mbernste

said by mbernste:

Which is why I think its likely for Charter to make a play for Cablevision.

Charter would more likely get southern and mid western properties from Comcast then anything in the northeastern corridor. With the exception of maybe some the upper New England and Maine assets.


ILpt4U
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reply to actor90

said by actor90:

I can foresee Comncast shedding more of it's mid-west properties to Charter along with the TWC assets down south. After that acquiring Cablevision's 3 million would not be an issue.

Surely not Chicagoland Metro Area - dump the #3 population center? That would be crazy

And heck, they just not too long ago bought some Indiana/Downstate IL areas, sold by Insight maybe? Before TWC bought the rest of Insight


actor90
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said by ILpt4U:

Surely not Chicagoland Metro Area - dump the #3 population center? That would be crazy

Not Chicago or Michigan, I'm thinking more of the bread basket assets that they are acquiring from TWC mixed with the Southern assets.


Thinkdiff
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join:2001-08-07
Bronx, NY
kudos:11
reply to actor90

You're assuming Charter wants them. Charter seems to be after major markets (hence their push to buy TWC). Not sure they'll be interested in rural/small to medium market areas, where profit margins are likely lower.
--
University of Southern California - Fight On!



actor90
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said by Thinkdiff:

You're assuming Charter wants them. Charter seems to be after major markets (hence their push to buy TWC). Not sure they'll be interested in rural/small to medium market areas, where profit margins are likely lower.

I don't see Charter as competitive or advanced enough to survive in markets like the northeast. Their style suits areas that have zero competition, areas that are FIOS free.


tonight34

@verizon.net
reply to mbernste

said by mbernste:

Which is why I think its likely for Charter to make a play for Cablevision. It can also be part of a more strategic deal where Comcast sells some of its area systems to Charter so that it makes more geographic sense for them to acquire Cablevision. Comcast did almost the same exact thing with Patriot Media when it was spun off of RCN. One hint of this is if channel lineups in the "new" Comcast systems in the area start getting aligned to Cablevision's.

comcast will be busy aligning their channel lineups to TWC systems they acquire...not busy aligning to systems they dont own. if some channels align like locals its strictly a coincidence. to suggest cable companies change their channels to lineup to systems they dont own and may never acquire is dumb.

said by mbernste:

The FCC and SEC might not go for it. They may have an uphill battle with the FCC with the current acquisition.

its FCC & DOJ...where do u get SEC from?


mbernste
Boosted
Premium,MVM
join:2001-06-30
Piscataway, NJ

It's not dumb at all. Pror to Comcast's purchase of Pat Media it is exactly what they did. Also Pat Media got some ex-Comcast executives on their board.



mbernste
Boosted
Premium,MVM
join:2001-06-30
Piscataway, NJ
reply to tonight34

The securities and Exchange commission has some regulatory authority in this area and has to give approval to all mergers of public companies.



Mack735

@myvzw.com

Post 1 article where SEC has any say in approval.


dm145

join:2009-12-12
Clifton, NJ
reply to mbernste

Now that Comcast is buying Time-Warner Cable...

No immediate impact on The Dolans or Cablevision
Status Quo



Ike2

@optonline.net
reply to mbernste

Although it seems like the Comcast–Time Warner Cable merger would be a nonstarter for the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice, Comcast may have a few major tricks up its sleeve. It’s chief lobbyist, David Cohen, is apparently “great friends” with President Obama.



Ike2

@optonline.net
reply to Mack735

The executives behind the merger of Comcast and Time Warner Cable are big financial supporters of President Barack Obama and other Democrats.


frdrizzt

join:2008-05-03
Ronkonkoma, NY
kudos:1
reply to mbernste

I see the Comcast & TW merger as less consumer-impacting than the Comcast/NBC merger, which managed to pass. This is reducing 2 non-competing compainies vs a content provider & content creator.


PX Eliezer
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reply to mbernste

said by mbernste:

The securities and Exchange commission has some regulatory authority in this area and has to give approval to all mergers of public companies.

No, SEC only deals with rules relating to disclosure documents and other releases of information, and with rules against insider trading.

The players here are FCC, DOJ, and possibly FTC.


mbernste
Boosted
Premium,MVM
join:2001-06-30
Piscataway, NJ

said by PX Eliezer:

and with rules against insider trading.

Precisely.