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eeeaddict
join:2010-02-14

eeeaddict

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North Korea vs Canada

I was looking at some pictures of a black market "trade show" in the DPRK and saw something that made me laugh and feel a bit sad at the same time.

I saw a price tag for a USB stick. $20 USD was the selling price, on amazon.com it was $15 USD at the time of the article and $13 now. (few months back) Amazon.ca want's $23 + shipping for the same USB stick.
Is it just me or is it funny that a black market product that someone risked jail time to export still costs more or about the same in Canada? food for though....

lugnut
@216.154.74.x

lugnut

Anon

Care to help me? I'm digging a tunnel to Tahiti to escape the repressive Harper Jong Un regime here and breathe the sweet air of freedom

Robert
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Freedom comes at a cost, and we bear those costs to enjoy living in a free society where we can think and move freely.

Not to mention that you're comparing a USB stick that you saw on the blackmarket in NK... have you seen their living conditions? They weep out of fear, not love.

elwoodblues
Elwood Blues
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join:2006-08-30
Somewhere in

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elwoodblues

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Don't even get me started down the road of "freedom has a price" that excuse has been used ad nausem, to wipe out the rights people have.

Robert
Premium Member
join:2001-08-25
Miami, FL

Robert

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OK, I won't get you started. Done. Move along.

El Quintron
Cancel Culture Ambassador
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join:2008-04-28
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said by eeeaddict:

Is it just me or is it funny that a black market product that someone risked jail time to export still costs more or about the same in Canada? food for though....

Besides the obvious "how big is the $20 USB stick" the real issue here is that products sold by Amazon.ca are expensive, or at least more expensive than CC/TD/NCIX in my case.

Computer components are exceptionally cheap in Canada, the USA and some parts of Asia. Prices I've seen in Japan and Europe are pretty freakin' high.

I think we're missing part of the story here.
dsl33
join:2012-02-02

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yeah but Kim has a BH and it's working overtime?

Thane_Bitter
Inquire within
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North Korea boarders China.
Trade between the two (lopsided it may be) allows China to directly profit from North Korea's isolation. Considering the wage in NK 95% of the country can't afford a USB stick which is just as well because they don't have a computer to use it in.

In our case between the product and us is a long chain of suppliers, middlemen and of course the Canadian tendency to markup costs well over US prices because we always pay.

eeeaddict
join:2010-02-14

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to be fair part of this was a jab at amazon.ca but it wasn't that much cheaper here. I know we pay taxes and everything but it's funny to think someone RISKED JAIL TIME to import that (along with the "fees" you pay for that service) yet it isn't much cheaper here where it's all good and legal.

Black Box
join:2002-12-21

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Um, USB sticks are not used with computers in NK. They are used with USB capable DVD players. When the police cuts power it is a lot easier to remove and hide the USB stick with SK soap operas than a DVD. You have seconds or minutes (if you're lucky) before the agents kick in the door. Getting caught watching such stuff would get you an all inclusive stay at the friendly reeducation camp, stat.
jumpingryan
join:2008-07-27
Pembroke, ON

jumpingryan

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said by Black Box:

Um, USB sticks are not used with computers in NK. They are used with USB capable DVD players. When the police cuts power it is a lot easier to remove and hide the USB stick with SK soap operas than a DVD. You have seconds or minutes (if you're lucky) before the agents kick in the door. Getting caught watching such stuff would get you an all inclusive stay at the friendly reeducation camp, stat.

Good answer WRT to the USB sticks and avoiding government "loyalty" censors. Useful for smuggling all kinds of black market things from South Korean and North American TV, to stuff like porn.

Reminds me of the Afghans outside the wire in 03/04..... particularly ones that we met that weren't as familiar with western culture and even technology. Afghans wanted to see all kinds of mens muscle mags for some reason... we read them for workout tips and how to get ourselves more jacked... but they actually seemed more enamoured by the pictures of both mens and women bodies... in some ways, their interest seemed to creep us out a little. I think it was actually just the topless pictures of buff men and women were a culture shock (and everyone is attracted to the taboo), and the fact that a magazine cost more than many Afghans made in a week or even a month.

It goes to show the strong differences in culture a world away. Due to its control, North Korea will probably be in for even more of a culture shock.

Anyways, back to NK, I have read open source reports that it is becoming far more common for critism of the government now, and the system seems to be un-wraveling just a touch in the sense of that. Information about the outside world is privately creeping in... even if it does not affect the outward talking points that the public speaks in front of foreigners.

Much is said about the number and supposed feroicty of their armed forces... but I suspect most Units will quickly capitulate in the face of western invasion. Avoiding military service through family connections or bribes, or making compulsory service easier oneself is now commonplace... indicating a level of disinterest in serving a higher power (the Kim family). Even their supposed special operations forces are no longer comprised of volunteers, and are now apparently a dumping ground for those who are not necessarily capable of much else other than being pushed into "to the death" missions.

Couple that with some seriously dated technology, and a lack of experience in true warfare, North Korean forces aren't as tough as people think. Western forces have been fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan for years... we have a professionalized officer and NCO corps that is paid on time, well equipped, and performs their duties with skill and experience. I laugh at the North Korean Generals and big parades of junior officers and NCO's with a big chest of medals.... where have they fought recently? What operations and enemy have they faced? I assume that the medals are for performing farm labour service for an officer corp that pockets much of the profits by pushing some of the fruits of their labour to the black market.

Behaviours like corrupt army officers moving partial production of military farm labour to the labour market are not indicative of an effective fighting force.

I even read one report that many are expecting an inevitable invasion by the US to perhaps rescue them of sorts.... although the cynicism seems apparent about life in general with their statements.

I do take many of these reports with a grain of salt... since free movement within the country is generally not allowed... it is difficult to determine even which area of the country the information is coming from. The outlying areas have long been known to be far more disloyal to the Kim family than the capital, and really nobody really knows about much of the day to day activities of the country. Intelligence is just crazy difficult to gather.

I suspect that North Korea's collapse is inevitable, and may even happen in my lifetime. China seems less interested in entertaining it's oddball neighbour and is favouring a US business relationship which is far more profitable.

One thing about Korean reunification that China probably does not want... competition. Particularly if reunification happens in a fairly controlled and bloodless manner.... North and South Korea would form one of the most diverse labour forces and economic powerhouses that might actually rival China in terms of economic power, production, and output. South Korea possesses advanced capabilities in terms of production and manufacturing along with an educated populace, and North Korea has a very cheap unskilled labour force. Similar to the East-West Germany reunification, but on a scale many times higher. A bloodless reunification would leave to major competition with China in terms of the production of anything.

Overall, North Korea is a horrible place in it's current state. People who make comparisons between their Dear Leader, and our apparent dear leader don't even have a clue nor frame of reference to understand what living in a country far less free than ours is.

Black Box
join:2002-12-21

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Black Box

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You are missing a couple of things. First, the sheer size of the army and reserves. Sure, there are opinions that they have supplies for only 3-7 days all out war, but I highly doubt it. By the very nature of the life in deprived conditions, they are highly resourceful in making do without. Also, they are highly disciplined and conditioned to blindly follow orders without questioning anything. You have seen nothing WRT obedience, mind control and brain washing. I cannot say I have seen these at this scale, and I was born and raised in a communist country. Remember the Japanese defense of Okinawa and Iwo Jima where most Japanese soldiers were raw conscripts with virtually no training. Do not underestimate them. They will inflict grievous damage on anyone attacking them.

Granted, most are low grade troops, but there are elite troops too. Think Leibstandarte SS Adolf Hitler. Mein Kampf is an object of study for the upper elites. Last year in January, to mark the birthday of Kim Jong-un, the members of the National Defense Committee ranked Department Director and above were issued copies. Also, there are the troops of the Ministry for State Security that have the role of Barrier troops. Think Cheka, later NKVD. If you need more examples, look at the Syrian officers' control over the conscripted troops in the current conflict. google or maybe Duck Duck Go is your friend.

The elite troops will be fighting for their very existence. If they do not prevail, the revenge will be fierce. Everybody and their brother, cousin and neighbour will want to exact revenge for everything that has happened in the last 70 years.

Also, China would not want South Korea at its doorstep. They say that without lips, the teeth grow cold. Sure the Chinese are annoyed by the latest antics, and they may push for some changes within NK, but they will never abandon NK to their arch-rival, the US and their perceived proxies, the SK. They will make sure the NK are fully supplied with more modern weaponry, the same way the Russians help the rebels in Ukraine. They did it in Vietnam too. Do not forget that the Chinese are always playing the long game. They are not constrained by the next quarterly report. They waited a hundred years to retake Hong Kong.

Corruption, yes. This is their Achilles' heel. This may lead to devolution into a number of factions and warlords, each with his own army. There is a power struggle going on now, and I think Kim Jong-un is not really on top of things. When his uncle Jang Song-thaek (a reformer) was purged and executed, the politburo was half empty. The ruling kim appearing in front of a incomplete audience and he had no speech to make. Heck, the Kim wasn't even in Pyongyang in the days the purge was decided. He was visiting Samjiyon. I am not sure you realize the implications. I has never happened before. The system established by Kim Jong-il where competing branches of government keep each other in check is broken. The Organization and Guidance Department has won. The Ministry of State Security is no longer strong enough to have a real influence. There are other signs, but this is the most telling.

China would not tolerate this chaos on its doorstep. While the NK army alone would eventually fail, I would expect a strong Chinese response, "whatever it takes", military if needed. And the Chinese military is nothing to sneeze at. Even more disciplined and certainly much better equipped than the NKs. They are already flexing their muscles in the region, picking fights with just about everyone in the Japan and East China Seas. They would certainly like to see a Vietnamese style reunification in Korea too.

Looking at the US on the other side, they are hobbled by the business elites that crave access to the cheap Chinese manufacturing and the total dependency on the Chinese made goods. Have you looked lately at the store shelves? How long before Fox News starts agitating against supporting the SK? How long before the Kochs and the Waltons start financing "grass roots" campaigns for retreat? I think an NK victory is not out of the question. It may even be likely.

This will be a bloody mess.

koira
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Often times you buy USB keys with software preinstalled by the vendor. For example SanDisk contain "SecureAccess" software. my theory on those NK flash drives is they were exported by the DPRK with malicious intent and they contain a payload app such as bot, trojan, virus, spyware etc.

Black Box
join:2002-12-21

Black Box

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said by koira:

Often times you buy USB keys with software preinstalled by the vendor. For example SanDisk contain "SecureAccess" software. my theory on those NK flash drives is they were exported by the DPRK with malicious intent and they contain a payload app such as bot, trojan, virus, spyware etc.

Damn you U3 and autorun!

milnoc
join:2001-03-05
Ottawa

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There's one catch concerning the relationship between China and South Korea: they do a lot of business together. I doubt China would want to screw up a lucrative economic relationship by trying to protect an economically and morally bankrupt neighbour.

Heck, if there were a military conflict between the two Koreas, don't be surprised if China sides with South Korea!

Black Box
join:2002-12-21

Black Box

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Agreed with the first paragraph. I bet the Chinese are salivating at the prospect of having the chaebols like Samsung or Hyundai under the control of a communist party. This could be a strong incentive to back the NKs.
jumpingryan
join:2008-07-27
Pembroke, ON

jumpingryan

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said by Black Box:

Agreed with the first paragraph. I bet the Chinese are salivating at the prospect of having the chaebols like Samsung or Hyundai under the control of a communist party. This could be a strong incentive to back the NKs.

Conquest by invasion just isn't how modern war works now... any traces of Samsung or Hyundai would be destroyed in a scorched earth policy.

In reality, NK wouldn't get that far. They might level a chunk of South Korea, but they will be pushed back far more easily than the last time... South Korea has a fairly professional military now, and massive war reserves (money and gold) stored overseas.

Even if they were pushed back to the sea, they can actually still pay the bills and fund future operations. NK can't, and has few allies to rely on.

While others may say otherwise, I get the impression that China would cut NK loose into free-fall if they ever did anything that stupid.
jumpingryan

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said by Black Box:

This will be a bloody mess.

I agree totally with that statement... but in the end, the NK regime and the Kim family will likely come to a total end in the event of war.

You have alot of knowledge of the circumstances and events of the past few years, and I do respect the reasoning of your assessment... it is backed up by alot of facts that are true... Nobody knows what is going on there, and one or even both of our assessments could be right! Very little gets out of North Korea, and the accuracy of any information is questionable!

You are right about China not tolerating chaos on it's doorstep... but I think they would simply lock down the border with NK, or perhaps advance into NK to seize their own tactical ground.

China's business relationship with NK isn't as prosperous as it's business relationship with SK or the US. This isn't the 50's, and China doesn't need 100's of million of unemployed people (by engaging in war with the US) with no interest in the military, and nothing to do.

China isn't as stable as people think when several hundred million people are suddenly unemployed with little to do.

China might quietly provide informal support to NK, but I doubt it would be like the 50's Korean War with actual troops fighting against Canadians or US forces.

I have met one Canadian platoon commander whose platoon took on 1500 Chinese troops.... he was partly overrun, but the position was held and the Chinese pushed back.....1500 vs 30 plus. Ed Mastronardi was his name, and they did a documentary on it. The numbers of Chinese were actually backed, as they found an officer from the Chinese side still living... although his version is one of victory as well (despite not seizing the position, losing so many people, and their withdrawal).

Quantity has a quality all it's own in China... but China needs the US as much as the US needs China... both to sell it's goods, and to eventually pay them back the US debt and interest China holds.

War puts a stop to US interest payments in a big way, and the US debt currency China holds becomes worthless paper to them once war starts. Congress won't release interest payments to China if they are killing US troops, and the US will just find another cheap supplier of goods (maybe India, or a future reunified Korea eventually).

I believe that given a choice of North Korea being invaded, or what will become a very heavily armed border of a reunified Korea... China will simply choose to draw a line in the sand, and warm the US and South Korea not to cross it into China's territory.

China may advance somewhat into NK, and seize some strategic ground for their interests to form a new border with a unified Korea... but keeping the regime going in NK.... I just don't think they care that much about NK nor the Kim family.

On your assessment of who is in control in NK... I do wonder as well if Kim Jong-un is really in charge..... You may be correct that perhaps just a "system" is in charge, rather than a man.... but everything about the understanding of NK is almost very foreign to us in our understanding of life there.

As to dumping SK... the UN/US forces didn't dump Korea in the 50's when they were almost pushed back into the sea, and considering tactical nuclear strikes.... I think support for SK has actually hardened since then to the point that the US can't be seen to loose there. As I mentioned before... China and the US need each other equally..... neither side wants to loose their business relationship.

But if push came to shove... one thing to consider is the US can demand the goods supplied by cheap labour from anywhere.... if China dumps the US... the US can easily do business with India, South America, Mexico, and certain countries in Europe. The market will just correct itself.... and where will China be then??? Well, they will have just lost their biggest trading partner.... and few other countries have the capacity to receive cheap Chinese goods to take up the slack.
jumpingryan

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said by milnoc:

Heck, if there were a military conflict between the two Koreas, don't be surprised if China sides with South Korea!

That's my assessment of it. China thinks it is important... but in reality, there are billions of other people in countries around the world who are VERY interested in becoming China's replacement as a supplier of cheap labour for US markets.

China might just find their long game of dominating the world extended by several centuries if they fall out of flavour as the US's supplier of cheap goods. Examples include India, a unified Korea, and South America.

I also predict that a hundred million unemployed Chinese with little to do other than think about what a democracy would be like..... wouldn't be a good thing for the current Chinese regime.

China isn't exactly the staple of political/government stability and unity if the people aren't busy being gainfully employed.

Black Box
join:2002-12-21

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Who says "scorched earth"? Expect infiltrations and fifth column actions. The NK are very adept at hitting the enemy from the back. Just think of the tunnels under the DMZ the SK keep finding. Some are big enough to shift a division in a day. Also, the midget plastic submarines too. Seoul is less than 50 km from the NK territory.

And with the chaebols gone (in the worst case scenario), the Chinese would appreciate the destruction of an adversary's capabilities. Look to what happened to the steel industry in the Eastern Europe that were bought and closed by the big Western steel producers. Not a bad result either, a significant competitor gone.

I know I'm playing the Devil's advocate, but I think we should consider the other possible outcome in this sh!t sandwich. I certainly would not want to see the outcomes I describe.

As i said, it will be a bloody mess.

Thane_Bitter
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I am sure they would find themselves tossed down with the rest of the rabble or killed, it doesn't matter the use, the average NK doesn't have a TV anyways that was my point.
jumpingryan
join:2008-07-27
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said by Black Box:

Who says "scorched earth"? Expect infiltrations and fifth column actions. The NK are very adept at hitting the enemy from the back. Just think of the tunnels under the DMZ the SK keep finding. Some are big enough to shift a division in a day. Also, the midget plastic submarines too. Seoul is less than 50 km from the NK territory.

There likely are some tunnels still out there, but there is nothing like a North Korean division appearing form nowhere to provide the quickest targets for gunships and airstrikes.

I still predict a scorched earth, not necessarily from citizens, but from massive US retaliation to NK, on SK soil. The US will be doing the scorching.

I don't have much faith in NK troops to do a good job at anything... from farming to soldiering... they just give the strong impression of being equally ineffective at both. However, have no doubt, NK will experience tactical victories they can brag about in propaganda films (if they can make them in a few days).... but I predict a strong strategic loss for their country in the end within weeks.... nothing short of an utter collapse of the NK system will satisify the west this time around.

Overall, what would happen is anybody's guess..... as to Chinese help of NK, I still think it will be very quiet... or an invasion by Chinese from the North to bring some of NK under Chinese proper control.

The US and China will come to an agreement on territory... likely wherever each other meets.

The Kim family will likely be punished by China in addition to the US, in the sense that China will want to take direct control of NK, bringing the border closer to what is now SK proper.

If the US gets the Kim's first, it will be a grand UN trial, or maybe just turn him over to SK. If China gets the Kim's first, he might get the opportunity to live his life in seclusion/exile... or he might just be quietly dumped in the sea.

With NK annexed, and split of territory (of unknown percentages) between China and SK, NK problem solved. China then just gets to completely do a big work project of building a giant wall at the new border.... to keep peskie SK and US influence at bay.... with huge doors for the future business prospects of rebuilding SK.

-------

There are other scenarios, including a peaceful collapse or coup inside NK.... which could lead to an invasion of sorts to take control of key nuclear material or perhaps humanitarian intervention. China may make a land grab themselves as well. A coup is challenging with a cult of personality and almost God like worship of the Kim's.... but a peaceful collapse is possible.

The scenario I am starting to believe less and less is that the Kim family will make it to another dynastic change to a successor. I think this is going to be the last in the line of Kim's.... Un just seems to be the weakest leader of them all... although nobody is certain of the actual control he has or doesn't.

Anyways, good debating with you BTW, you certainly have a good grasp of the Korean issues along with the history, and I wouldn't call your predictions unlikely at all.

dirtyjeffer0
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said by jumpingryan:

In reality, NK wouldn't get that far. They might level a chunk of South Korea, but they will be pushed back far more easily than the last time... South Korea has a fairly professional military now, and massive war reserves (money and gold) stored overseas.

not only that, but SK has allies from many well equipped and very capable allies (pretty much all NATO nations)...further complicating things, is China likely has a very important financial relationship with those same countries as well...so while NK may talk about flexing its muscle, if it were to actually do something stupid (like a military strike in SK), they would find out hard and fast how utterly stupid such a move would be...the US, Canada, UK (pretty much all European nations) would all have support down there immediately and NK would cease to exist in days...while NK does have a large standing army, such a military is pretty useless in today's modern warfare...while China would certainly have the ability to "stand up" the allies, they could pretty much flush their economy down the toilet if they did...what would likely happen is China would step in, slap NK in the face and tell them to STFU and smarten up.

El Quintron
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El Quintron

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The only serious issue with North Korea is how difficult it would be to root out their command structure' due to abundant natural defenses, which the North Korean army could use to its advantage in an invasion.

I'd argue that the only reason North Korea still exists is precisely because of how much of a pain in the ass it would be to topple their government. That being said; an attack on South Korea would probably be the reason we're looking for to topple this regime for good.

EQ

huh_wha
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said by Robert:

Freedom comes at a cost

Freedom costs $1.05.
Try and keep up.
jumpingryan
join:2008-07-27
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said by dirtyjeffer0:

not only that, but SK has allies from many well equipped and very capable allies (pretty much all NATO nations)...further complicating things, is China likely has a very important financial relationship with those same countries as well...so while NK may talk about flexing its muscle, if it were to actually do something stupid (like a military strike in SK), they would find out hard and fast how utterly stupid such a move would be...the US, Canada, UK (pretty much all European nations) would all have support down there immediately and NK would cease to exist in days...while NK does have a large standing army, such a military is pretty useless in today's modern warfare...while China would certainly have the ability to "stand up" the allies, they could pretty much flush their economy down the toilet if they did...what would likely happen is China would step in, slap NK in the face and tell them to STFU and smarten up.

I agree with everything you said. It is my theory that China will quickly realize that their power and influence to control the US and other countries is not as big as impression they like to project:

1) China is still a far off second in terms of comparison against US military power. This point is debatable... but China also has few allies... while the US has many. The US still has ultra advanced technology compared to China.

2) China provides the US cheap labour... there are MANY countries who would easily step up to replace China in the provision of cheap labour... many are quite eager to now... India is an example. China should know that.... business will still go on in the US.... and the US can choose to start moving their business elsewhere.

While everyone may rant about contracts and business relationships.... when you are outside the US circle of trust... well you become a state like NK.

China can't afford to go backwards in economic progress. It's people aren't THAT loyal, and hundreds of millions of people with nothing to do but be angry at the government will be a real problem for the Chinese.

3) China holds a large amount of US debt. Expecting the US to pay back, when you are supportive of a US enemy.... it actually guarantee's the US won't pay back. Would Congress provide interest payments to a country actively supporting a US enemy, killing US troops?

--------

China would quickly realize that supporting NK is a stupid move on many levels. While NK has to make a stupid move first, China likely realizes it would be better for them to have a unified Korea on their doorstep to do business with rather than outside the circle of US business... even if the unified Korea became pro US.

For now, NK contained is the best approach for China right now... but when NK pushes too hard... China will likely just drop them.
jumpingryan

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said by El Quintron:

The only serious issue with North Korea is how difficult it would be to root out their command structure' due to abundant natural defenses, which the North Korean army could use to its advantage in an invasion.

The south also has considerable setups and advantages in the invasion of them as well. Many bridges and tunnels are set to be blown to halt a NK advance.

Any undiscovered tunnels might get a division through, but would be quickly filled in by an ultra accurate bunker buster bomb.

The US will use its air superiority to ensure that ground forces are covered.... and counter artillery locating technology to quickly counter hidden artillery. NK's tanks will be hunted from the air, and it's airforce... anyways... LOL

Kim's palaces... long gone in the work up to the conflict. Along with all the pre-setup targets that are already programmed to be destroyed.

As to an invasion, select airfields may also be seized by an airdrop from the 82nd Airborne... While it will be challenging to initially defend... airfields allow heavier vehicles to be landed... bypassing much of the initial NK defences. Airdrops would also allow quick development of an area that might not be an airhead, but could quickly become one.

It will be chaos at first no doubt......
PX Eliezer1
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I would not be over-confident when it comes to North Korea.

1) The Korean War was a very very hard fight.

2) The US had a very difficult time in Vietnam despite enormous leads in equipment and technology.

3) And the US just finished 13 years in the Afghan war, how well did that go?

El Quintron
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said by jumpingryan:

The US will use its air superiority to ensure that ground forces are covered.... and counter artillery locating technology to quickly counter hidden artillery. NK's tanks will be hunted from the air, and it's airforce... anyways... LOL

I've done a bit of research on this, and my understanding is that invading North Korea would cost approximately 250 000 armed forces lives. (mind you this is a 2008 estimate and things have surely changed in the meantime)

Most of the USA's military and tactical superiority comes from the Air Force, which poses particular challenges in North Korea... of lot of air power is going to be mitigated by mountains, and you're eventually going to need boots on the ground, something the US so far hasn't been particularly good at producing in recent conflicts.
PX Eliezer1
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PX Eliezer1

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said by El Quintron:

Most of the USA's military and tactical superiority comes from the Air Force, which poses particular challenges in North Korea... of lot of air power is going to be mitigated by mountains, and you're eventually going to need boots on the ground, something the US so far hasn't been particularly good at producing in recent conflicts.

Aircraft are brought down by surface-to-air missiles including the new types of vehicle-mounted SAMs.

Having to engage in a (second) ground war in Korea would be murder.

I was going to say that I [hoped] that the US had learned some lessons from Korea and Vietnam, but our 13 years in Afghanistan prove that we have not.