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etaadmin
join:2002-01-17
united state

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etaadmin

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The dead of traditional TV (CableCo and DirecTV)

I found a very interesting article here »hackaday.com/2018/12/17/ ··· america/

I never though I would live long enough to see this day. Looks like CableCo services are better positioned to adapt to the new order.
quote:
At least “cable” providers (which today can take many forms including fiber optic to the premises) can fall back on providing Internet services to customers. You might not want to watch their branded TV service, but you’re still on the hook for buying Internet access from them because your home is physically jacked into their network. But the satellite providers don’t even have that golden parachute; satellite Internet is comparatively so slow and expensive, with only a handful of companies still offering it.

As 2018 nears it's end and *almost* all of spectrum subscriber being able to order gigabit or at least 100/200 Mbps cable internet subscribers are better off than traditional (xDSL) telco internet subscribers. As AT&T stated they acquired DirecTV only for the subscriber base and content delivery contracts.
quote:
What they really wanted was the installed userbase of millions of subscribers, as well as the lucrative content deals that DirecTV had already made.

Without the hardware shackle that keeps directv subscribers tied to the service I expect a lot of defections from directv to other streaming providers.

It's going to get very interesting in how Spectrum and others change/adapt in the next two-three years.

Anond64c1
@74.73.91.x

3 recommendations

Anond64c1

Anon

said by etaadmin:

I found a very interesting article here »hackaday.com/2018/12/17/ ··· america/

I never though I would live long enough to see this day. Looks like CableCo services are better positioned to adapt to the new order.

quote:
At least “cable” providers (which today can take many forms including fiber optic to the premises) can fall back on providing Internet services to customers. You might not want to watch their branded TV service, but you’re still on the hook for buying Internet access from them because your home is physically jacked into their network. But the satellite providers don’t even have that golden parachute; satellite Internet is comparatively so slow and expensive, with only a handful of companies still offering it.

As 2018 nears it's end and *almost* all of spectrum subscriber being able to order gigabit or at least 100/200 Mbps cable internet subscribers are better off than traditional (xDSL) telco internet subscribers. As AT&T stated they acquired DirecTV only for the subscriber base and content delivery contracts.
quote:
What they really wanted was the installed userbase of millions of subscribers, as well as the lucrative content deals that DirecTV had already made.

Without the hardware shackle that keeps directv subscribers tied to the service I expect a lot of defections from directv to other streaming providers.

It's going to get very interesting in how Spectrum and others change/adapt in the next two-three years.

What's makes satellite TV different from cable is you can get satellite TV anywhere in the US (as long as you have line of sight, of course). With cable, you're limited to whatever footprint they have. Now, that it's getting easier and easier to get "TV" on the internet, and internet can be had anywhere, the fact that you can get satellite TV anywhere is becoming a moot point.

As for how cable will adapt? They'll be fine. Cable 2.0.
mikiee
join:2009-06-10
Saint Louis, MO

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mikiee to etaadmin

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to etaadmin
How will they adapt? You don't want to pay for our TV pkg? Fine. We'll just jack up the price of basic internet to make up for all the cord cutters.
brad152
join:2006-07-27
Chicago, IL

8 recommendations

brad152

Member

said by mikiee:

How will they adapt? You don't want to pay for our TV pkg? Fine. We'll just jack up the price of basic internet to make up for all the cord cutters.

That's exactly what they've done. They made maybe $10-20/mo off of the cable packages, and well if you notice no more $40 rack rate internet anymore

gzt7d8
Aliens live amongst us
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join:2001-07-13
Traverse City, MI

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gzt7d8 to etaadmin

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to etaadmin
That's the problem, I live in BFE and there was nothing here to subscribe too. I'm a satellite TV subscriber because I couldn't get cable. I started with DirecPC and rabbit ears.

Now I have access to all the services but the price keeps going up and up and up. I was with DirecTV for 20 years, called and asked for a break on my bill. All I got was 6 month reduced and then back to the original price....big deal. I left, and they did NOTHING to keep me as a customer. So much for loyalty.

Now on DISH TV, I face the same problem again. I guess they don't care to lose customer base. I wish I could find the article but it stated figures on how many customers each were losing a year. It was staggering.

When my contract is up in the spring, I'm considering a internet based service. That's where they want us to go to anyways, I'll just accelerate their timeline.
brad152
join:2006-07-27
Chicago, IL

5 recommendations

brad152

Member

said by gzt7d8:

That's the problem, I live in BFE and there was nothing here to subscribe too. I'm a satellite TV subscriber because I couldn't get cable. I started with DirecPC and rabbit ears.

Now I have access to all the services but the price keeps going up and up and up. I was with DirecTV for 20 years, called and asked for a break on my bill. All I got was 6 month reduced and then back to the original price....big deal. I left, and they did NOTHING to keep me as a customer. So much for loyalty.

Now on DISH TV, I face the same problem again. I guess they don't care to lose customer base. I wish I could find the article but it stated figures on how many customers each were losing a year. It was staggering.

When my contract is up in the spring, I'm considering a internet based service. That's where they want us to go to anyways, I'll just accelerate their timeline.

I always just swap back and forth when the 1-2yr promo runs out. It's what you've gotta do if you want to keep the prices down.

shockwaverid
join:2006-04-20
Radcliff, KY

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shockwaverid to etaadmin

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DirecTV will slowly but surely die on the vine over the next 10-20 years as ATT has already said there will be no new satellite launches and that they will transition DirecTV Satellite users to their new android STB DirecTV service over the internet. It's being tested as we speak. I applied to be a beta tester so i could get the box and try it as I have been a DirecTV NOW subscriber for well over a year now. My only complaint for DirectTV NOW is they only have a beta 20 hr DVR right now....it needs to be at least 100 hrs if not more. I live in a house with my sister and brother in law who has DirectTV Satellite service and he pays $165 per month which is outrageous to me. I currently pay around $60 for my DirectTV Now in the same house. I tried to get them to which but because of their work schedules, they would need at least a 100 hr DVR and DirectTV NOW just isn't there yet. 3 streams of DirectTV NOW with HBO and 100 hrs of DVR would be way cheaper than $165 that he pays plus the $60 I pay. I might add we have 3 TV's in the house.
aaammsdad
join:2013-11-27
Auburndale, FL

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aaammsdad to etaadmin

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to etaadmin
I think we are failing to take 5G into account. Wireless internet from your cell phone provider that is faster than cable has the potential to totally upset the market and current infrastructure. I am interested to see how 5G plays out over the next few years.

cork1958
Cork
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join:2000-02-26

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cork1958 to brad152

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to brad152
said by brad152:

I always just swap back and forth when the 1-2yr promo runs out. It's what you've gotta do if you want to keep the prices down.

About the only thing you can do, if you want to keep prices lower and must have those services. About ot do that exact thing come March when my Dish contract is over. Wife is only reason we've had cable/satellite this long!

motorola870
join:2008-12-07
Arlington, TX

12 recommendations

motorola870 to aaammsdad

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to aaammsdad
said by aaammsdad:

I think we are failing to take 5G into account. Wireless internet from your cell phone provider that is faster than cable has the potential to totally upset the market and current infrastructure. I am interested to see how 5G plays out over the next few years.

stop saying 5G is a god send no it is not. It will get bogged down too. FTTH/RFoG/FDX DOCSIS is the future not wireless. They can retrofit FTTH to 10G standard or higher in future. 5G requires updating devices and etc everytime they try to up it. Capped 5G is not a replacement internet option for anyone only a cashgrab.
motorola870

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motorola870

Member

At&t is making sure that people start paying the same price as traditional TV it is going to $60 soon. They aren't going to let you get it for cheaper they just slowed down defections to OTT for now until people completely shave it down to just internet and pirate.

DocDrew
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join:2009-01-28
SoCal
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DocDrew to motorola870

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said by motorola870:

They can retrofit FTTH to 10G standard or higher in future. 5G requires updating devices and etc everytime they try to up it.

FTTH "requires updating devices and etc everytime they try to up it" same as 5G. FIOS is working on it's 2nd series of upgrades now. First from BPON to GPON, now from GPON to NG-PON2. It required changing out OLTs, and ONTs, among other things on either side. Other FTTH will be similar.
SlabBulkhead
join:2001-12-05
Dayton, OH
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SlabBulkhead to cork1958

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to cork1958
said by cork1958:

said by brad152:

I always just swap back and forth when the 1-2yr promo runs out. It's what you've gotta do if you want to keep the prices down.

About the only thing you can do, if you want to keep prices lower and must have those services. About ot do that exact thing come March when my Dish contract is over. Wife is only reason we've had cable/satellite this long!

It was a great day when I convinced mine to let me cancel TV service. It didn't take long for her to like streaming better.
brad152
join:2006-07-27
Chicago, IL

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brad152

Member

said by SlabBulkhead:

said by cork1958:

said by brad152:

I always just swap back and forth when the 1-2yr promo runs out. It's what you've gotta do if you want to keep the prices down.

About the only thing you can do, if you want to keep prices lower and must have those services. About ot do that exact thing come March when my Dish contract is over. Wife is only reason we've had cable/satellite this long!

It was a great day when I convinced mine to let me cancel TV service.

I'm the one who actually wants/uses it, and i'm okay paying for it as long as it's under $200 combined.

Eagles1221
join:2009-04-29
Vincentown, NJ

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Eagles1221 to shockwaverid

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to shockwaverid
2/3 the time my DVR wonks 1/2 way into a show. DTVN still can't get 72 hour rewind right. STILL no broadcast channels unless you live in a major city.

Frank
Premium Member
join:2000-11-03
somewhere

1 edit

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Frank to motorola870

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to motorola870
said by motorola870:

said by aaammsdad:

I think we are failing to take 5G into account. Wireless internet from your cell phone provider that is faster than cable has the potential to totally upset the market and current infrastructure. I am interested to see how 5G plays out over the next few years.

stop saying 5G is a god send no it is not. It will get bogged down too. FTTH/RFoG/FDX DOCSIS is the future not wireless. They can retrofit FTTH to 10G standard or higher in future. 5G requires updating devices and etc everytime they try to up it. Capped 5G is not a replacement internet option for anyone only a cashgrab.

Heres what I think is going to happen in the next couple of years.

With declining tv subscriptions cable companies are going to try to increase the cheapest base internet package to >$100-$140

Tmobile, Sprint or a new fangled merged combination of the two will offer some sort of video throttled unlimited internet package at a much cheaper price (well, cheap compared to >$100) and the other wireless companies will follow suit.

The average consumer will see 5g as a godsend because they wont care about half the stuff most people on this forum care about (much higher speeds, very low ping, etc) as long as they have a somewhat reliable internet connection with speeds decent enough (50-100 mbps) so they can load webpages and stream video at an somewhat affordable price.

OSUGoose
join:2007-12-27
Columbus, OH
Apple AirPort Extreme (2013)

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AT&T is NOT a satellite company, they just happen to own one.

AT&T is a content company, who happens to own assets to aid in the delivery of that content (Wireless, Traditional Fixed Internet, etc)

They have also finally woken up and realized that their FTTN experiment is a dud, and are over-lashing Fiber everywhere because they bought DirecTV.

AT&Ts future is content delivery, and they will ever be the one providing the transport, or let someone else be the dumb pipe for em.
kherr
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join:2000-09-04
Collinsville, IL

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kherr to etaadmin

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to etaadmin
don't you read the press ??? cable and satellite are losing market share every quarter ..... and OTA is gaining ....

and FIBER is where it's at ... coax sucks and always has ..... you sneeze and the modem reboots ...

DOSIS X.X is just a band-aid .......
miser
join:2004-01-16
Sandusky, OH

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miser to motorola870

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to motorola870
said by motorola870:

stop saying 5G is a god send no it is not. It will get bogged down too. FTTH/RFoG/FDX DOCSIS is the future not wireless. They can retrofit FTTH to 10G standard or higher in future. 5G requires updating devices and etc everytime they try to up it. Capped 5G is not a replacement internet option for anyone only a cashgrab.

I am going to agree with you. "5G" is fine for those that have no other option (similar to satellite) but as a full time connection? No thank you. Don't want to deal with CG-NAT, caps, throttling, can't use my own equipment (double nat), etc.

Money better spent would be wiring the entire country for fiber. Leaving politics aside - that's how you put people to work. Fiber everywhere, nationalize the physical plant, and let ISP's "fight" to provide service. Obviously I'm leaving out a lot of the details.

shockwaverid
join:2006-04-20
Radcliff, KY

3 recommendations

shockwaverid

Member

somebody is gonna put people to work installing the literally hundred's of thousand or millions of 5G cell points all over the country for 5G to actually work! Not coming to a city or down near you anytime soon.

maartena
Elmo
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join:2002-05-10
Orange, CA

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maartena to etaadmin

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to etaadmin
Regardless of the technology whether "6G" (pun intended) or "Superfiber" or "Glorified Copper", bandwidth has been increasing over the years, and will continue to increase. While there will always be people that will not be able to get any good connection due to their location, 90% of Americans live in a city or town that is large enough to supply at least 50 or 100 Mbps, and most probably already do. And that is the market that streaming providers are targeting.

There are a number of reasons why the traditional "channels in a grid guide" delivery of content is starting to crumble.

First, the media companies that own the channels are squeezing the necks of cable companies and are forcing bundles (e.g. you can't get Discovery Channel without also paying for the 8 or so "lesser" Discovery owned channels), and people are getting sick and tired of having to pay for 150 channels when they only watch 10-15 of them 95% of the time. "Over the top" providers of channel television have been NEW companies, and have been able to negotiate different types of contracts, where as media companies don't want to change the contracts they have with cable providers.

Second, people are starting to want "on demand" delivery of content versus "channel + record" delivery of content. At this moment, about 80% of content on cable will be on streaming services anywhere from next day (such as hulu, hbo, showtime, etc) to a year from airing (amazon, netflix, hulu, and individual streamers), and cable television is starting to become the "premium" you pay to have it NOW, instead of tomorrow, next month, or next year.

Third, there is no flexibility in anything. Besides the aforementioned bundling of channels, people are forced into cable provider equipment and DVR's, and are forced to pay $10 to $15 (depending on provider) for each TV they want to watch on. In comparison, most providers in EU countries allow you to buy your own DVB-C compatible equipment, and the local cable provider might just charge a service fee per device of 2-3 Euro or so. So not only is it a LOT cheaper, you get the freedom of choice when it comes to equipment. Yes, there IS cablecard, but due to the expensive cost in licensing for a manufacturer to use it, very few actually do (such as TiVo). Choosing a streaming service will also get you the same freedom of choice. While you may have to pay extra to get more streams, it is not per TV or device, but per stream used. You can choose a plethora of devices that you can use, ranging from "puck model" streaming devices, "stick model" devices, smart TV's, game consoles etc etc to get it onto your big screen, and at the same time most of these services work from any browser on a PC or can be used on devices running Android or iOS. Furthermore, there is the flexibility of canceling and resubbing any time you want. You can cancel one servers, sub to another for specific channels, cancel that, and re-sub to the first one again without having to ever deal with equipment changes or technician installations.

Finally, there is the cost. Already touched on above, the traditional cable companies include equipment lease fees.... but also "surcharges" for sports, broadcast networks, and a range of local fees and taxes that you often don't have to pay with streaming alternatives. Some people don't care about sports, and certainly don't want to pay for it. Others don't care about broadcast networks because their antenna picks them up anyways.... and although there are laws that state that a cable company MUST include broadcast networks if they provide cable service, if those same cable companies aren't willing to lobby for a law change, they are shooting themselves in the foot, because people ARE going to leave to companies for whom that law doesn't apply - such as online streaming services.

For me personally, it is too late. I cancelled DirecTV in February 2014, which means it will be 5 years without cable in a couple of months time. I went on the roof, pulled the dish off of its mounting pole, put a $40 antenna from Home Depot in its place, and have been receiving 100+ channels on my TV and my HD HomeRun for years. I am considering buying a DVR for it, but am on the fence because I don't use OTA enough. I used it last night for the Voice Final, and that was the first time since the World Cup I had seen commercials on TV.

When I need channels temporarily, in my case as mentioned the World Cup, but also the Olympic Games, I subscribe to 1 month of Sling TV Blue, and that works perfectly.

As for the future, if cable companies want to survive and compete without just becoming an ISP for internet.... they need to seriously re-think the following:

1) Lobby for law changes to allow for channel packages without broadcast networks.
2) Work with all other cable companies to hammer out an OPEN standard so people can buy their own equipment.
3) Allow people to purchase packages without sports, but with other good channels.
4) Take a tougher stance against "forced bundling" with media companies. You may have to be the first to "go dark" on channels and be the cable companies with the "cohones", but once the 2nd or 3rd company follows, the media companies will have little choice than to consider single channel contracts.
5) Get flexible. Allow people to cancel/hold their service for 3 months without them having to bring back equipment and losing everything on their DVR.

And before you go and blame the government or the media companies.... STOP. The Cable companies bear just as much responsibility in this, as THEY are the ones rolling over for the media companies, and THEY are the ones that lobby for law changes.

If you currently work for the cable company, and you just laughed at the above and had that "yah right, like thats ever going to happen" thought..... better check your 401k's and roll em over into some IRA's, because you are slowly going down with the ship. It's sinking. It's NOT sinking fast, and it might be YEARS before any cable company gets in trouble, but it is sinking nonetheless..... slowly. The 5 points mentioned above.... are the patches to stop that sinking.
maartena

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maartena to gzt7d8

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to gzt7d8
said by gzt7d8:

That's the problem, I live in BFE and there was nothing here to subscribe too. I'm a satellite TV subscriber because I couldn't get cable.

These are the folks that will eventually be left out in the cold. The article states that past November 2018, in a conference call with investors, that DirecTV has launched their "last satellite", in other words: No more NEW satellites.

Satellites last about 12 to 15 years, if they are lucky they MIGHT get a few more years out of them, but that is it.... and if it breaks, it breaks. Their newest satellite was launched in 2015, and anticipated needing capacity for 4k TV, so they can expand on that for another decade or so.... but many of the older satellites will start to be retired, and with 5 satellites in the 2001 to 2004 launch years (when they needed expansion for HD), within about 5 years DirecTV might have only a handful of satellites left.

Without launching new satellites, they can operate to about 2030-32 at best, and that is assuming that by then they have about HALVED their channel count due to no more capacity being available.

But.... they are making great progress with DirecTV Now. The reality is they don't CARE about the 5% (or roughly 16 million people) of the population that don't have the ability to get internet that is "stream worthy", in other words at least 20-25 Mbps or so. Instead of launching expensive satellites, they can just invest in bandwidth and stream to the internet.... and go head to head with cable where they previously had a harder time (such as downtown areas with many building obstacles). Those customers are, from a financial point of view, much more valuable.

The "BFE" customers.... well, they can probably serve them with most channels and 4K TV till 2025-27 or so, and then slash some channels as satellites start to fail.....

Perhaps eventually, they might decide to launch ONE satellite after all, to keep the last customers in business for a while longer, but in 10 years from now.... we will live in an entirely different internet age, with possibly fast connections to 99.9% of Americans, (There will always be those log cabins in the woods on an island in a lake that are just unreachable....) where everything can and will be delivered over the internet.

Eventually.... there will only be internet providers, and those who operate services on the internet. Cable TV will be gone. Satellite TV will be gone. And some of those might be calculated moves (like Dish investing heavily in Sling, and AT&T investing heavily in DTV Now), some of those might be because they were to stubborn to change and die out.

Pacomartin
join:2013-03-18
Bethlehem, PA

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Pacomartin to Frank

Member

to Frank
I have a triple play service with a 5.5 year old telephony modem at 50 Mbps (lease cost is $2). The monthly cost is $154 (which includes $22 for DVR and set top boxes and $32 for TV related surcharges).
I asked that what they would reduce the price too if I dropped TV and returned the DVR and boxes and I was told it would be $100.
said by Frank:

With declining tv subscriptions cable companies are going to try to increase the cheapest base internet package to >$100-$140

So I would say that day is already here.

AT&Ts offer for 5G for $500 for hotspot and $70 month for 15 GB is less than heartstopping.

cralt
join:2011-01-07
CT

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cralt to maartena

Member

to maartena
said by maartena:

Perhaps eventually, they might decide to launch ONE satellite after all,

I really doubt it. AT&T has no problems kicking customers off of services they want to EOL. With the amount of lead time and massive costs it takes to build and send up a satellite it's not something that can be decided on a whim.

I agree with everything else you said. The relatively few BFE customers are not enough to support a satellite fleet. AT&T will keep jacking up the prices of the DBS service to force people who can switch to do so. Those that cant will just be SOL.

DBS is the TV of the 1990s. Today people want OnDemand and interactive.
Purnerdyl00
join:2016-02-08
Queensbury, NY

1 edit

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Purnerdyl00 to Pacomartin

Member

to Pacomartin
Not real 5G anyways. Beefed up 4G LTE. At least Verizon’s fixed wireless offer for 5G is appetizing.

15gb for “5G” is a joke.

maartena
Elmo
Premium Member
join:2002-05-10
Orange, CA

7 recommendations

maartena

Premium Member

said by Purnerdyl00:

Not real 5G anyways. Beefed up 4G LTE. At least Verizon’s fixed wireless offer for 5G is appetizing.

15gb for “5G” is a joke.

At the end of the day, I don't really care what they call it. 4G, 5G, 6G, its all just a marketing term anyways. There are those say 5G is "not really 5G but 4G LTE Plus", but 4G wasn't even 4G, it was 3G with more bandwidth, and if we're counting, LTE networks are really "just" 4G. It's all marketing spin, and we are led to believe its actually a new generation of "things". Call it SpaceCowboyInternet and people will think its cool.

Who really cares about what "G" it is.... what matters is indeed your second sentence: The caps are a joke, and are currently in no way ready to compete against any land line based internet, not even a DSL line.
maartena

2 recommendations

maartena to cralt

Premium Member

to cralt
said by cralt:

said by maartena:

Perhaps eventually, they might decide to launch ONE satellite after all,

I really doubt it. AT&T has no problems kicking customers off of services they want to EOL. With the amount of lead time and massive costs it takes to build and send up a satellite it's not something that can be decided on a whim.

I agree with everything else you said. The relatively few BFE customers are not enough to support a satellite fleet. AT&T will keep jacking up the prices of the DBS service to force people who can switch to do so. Those that cant will just be SOL.

DBS is the TV of the 1990s. Today people want OnDemand and interactive.

They might still have a big enough commercial and mobile customer base to warrant one satellite by 2030 or so.... There are country road bars and diners that serve as the local football joint well out of reach of any internet/cable provider that use satellite to deliver sports to the locals. While internet might be brought to them by 2030, if you run a sports bar with 60 televisions and 20-30 feeds on at any given time, you'd need a dedicated Gigabit for TV alone or bust. Even in TOWN, that might be a bit of a stretch, even in 2030.....

Then there is RV's and such with on-board satellite TV. I'd say there might still be a market out there by that time, but it will be diminished so greatly, that they will be a commercial provider only - their bread and butter - with still one or two expensive residential options for those who have no choice.
Purnerdyl00
join:2016-02-08
Queensbury, NY
Ubee E31U2V1
Tenda Nova MW6
Netgear Orbi

4 edits

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Purnerdyl00 to etaadmin

Member

to etaadmin
Well. Charter just announced today they invested into a startup called Blade. Which is a video game streaming company. So they clearly have a plan to probably sell the service with their current packages. Though they did not mention what the plan was for the future.

I can see Charter is thinking about the future of the business. They probably won’t raise internet prices much further. Along with prices increases on other services like mobile like people are saying. People after all will only take so much when it comes to price increases. I think instead. Charter will divest to other types of services. And clearly Charter thinks, that streaming video games will be the future. They do have to do something about the losses of traditional Tv and even phone services now as people switch to more competitive options.
ham3843
join:2015-01-15
USA

5 recommendations

ham3843

Member

What most of these companies won't speak of is a growing number of
"customers" that simply can't afford their basic internet pricing as it is now, and will drop all traditional services and just have a pay as you go service like
Tracfone.

5G isn't the solution, and seems to be quite the joke when you consider the huge expensives involved with placing these cantennas, and the power lines that must go to them. Add in all the usual
issues with wireless service (5G is NOT exempt) and include latency,
congestion, and of course maintenance which I predict will be a nightmare
and you have a huge expensive failure on your hands.
sparky007
join:2011-08-25
Phoenix, AZ

5 recommendations

sparky007 to etaadmin

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to etaadmin
Yep.. Canceled my Directv for Sony Vue.. For $50.00 I get the channels I use to watch on Directv.