richb01803
Rich
join:2001-02-14
02100
| Don't worry, be happy said by Yankee Group:
By 2006, DSL users will total 16.7 million, 12.5 million of them home subscribers.
Rah rah. These folks seem to only get paid if they come up with optimistic future fantasies.
Wonder if they'd get paid less for a more-realistic report which said 3 million subscribers at the end of 2001 and 6 million at the end of 2006, 2 million of them home subscribers? (These numbers are USA-only.)
I'm pulling numbers out of thin air based on my gut feel, but it doesn't seem like these analysts do anything more thorough. | |
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Karl Bode
News Guy
join:2000-03-02
Host:
Road Runner
PC gaming GAMES
PC gaming Tech
| Re: Don't worry, be happy No, I imagine they have a nice mathematical formula all worked out, but that doesn't mean they won't be wrong.
Look at weatherman. The dolts can't be accurate more than 12 hours ahead, yet they bother to constantly come out with "five day forcasts" that change 12 times during the week.
This is the same thing. Just good banter for debate.
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The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it. | |
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Karl Bode
News Guy
join:2000-03-02
Host:
Road Runner
PC gaming GAMES
PC gaming Tech
| Re: Don't worry, be happy Hah. It comes from my years of following the NFL, and listening to sports writers who cut bold swaths of predictions each pre-season and completely miss the mark on 90% of them. Applies to all aspects of life, especially business. 
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The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it. | |
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richb01803
Rich
join:2001-02-14
02100
| Re: Don't worry, be happy The difference is in the sheer level of optimism.
It's one thing for a sportswriter to publish comments to the effect that "The New England Patriots sucked last year, will still suck this year, and will probably have to move to Houston before they'll ever see another chance at the Superbowl."
It's another for someone to say "The DSL industry is tanking now and will likely fail by 2006. Investors should look elsewhere, we recommend 5-year US Treasury notes."
The sportswriter would get to keep his job. If he's wrong, the worst thing that happens is a lot of bettors lose a few hundred bucks.
The industry analyst would get fired. So he has to give this happy-happy horsesh*t constantly, which makes it wrong even more of the time. Since they are wrong so often, a lot of investors suffer the worst-case scenario of losing thousands or tens of thousands of bucks.
The Wall Street game is really getting under my skin these days. | |
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gregschneide
join:2000-12-22
Port Chester, NY | as an isp selling dsl through a clec, we are seeing a demand for dsl very strong. it is ironic that we are doing so much business and the clec business is in dire straits. | |
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| 2farfromCO7
join:2000-10-14
Farmington, MI | Re: Don't worry, be happy It's simple ILEC abuse makes each sale a loss instead of a profit. ILECs should pay for any and all screwups intentional or not from CLEC line orders. | |
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richb01803
Rich
join:2001-02-14
02100
| Demand is very strong everywhere. In fact the ISP which I helped to manage until last year saw so much DSL demand that it almost choked to death on high demand.
The problem I saw was that we couldn't get the circuits up and running quickly enough to pay salaries the installation, order-taking, and "escalation" staff we had to hire. You can't issue a monthly recurring invoice to your customer until the service is up and running.
Then we had absolute horror stories on the repair side. Average time to repair was about 4 days. That meant paying yet more salaries (and issuing credits) for people to listen to customers complain and to relay trouble-tickets to Covad, Northpoint, and Verizon.
It was a nightmare! Sure, we got tons of orders. But only a third of the orders led to successful up-and-running customers. | |
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| | 2farfromCO7
join:2000-10-14
Farmington, MI
| Re: Don't worry, be happy Oh no, a whole four days!!! And you survived?!?
Please tell me that your limousine didn't break down that week too.
At least you had your maids clean the house and cooks cook the meals while you had to wait for the dial-up service. right????
Would you rather waith 3 years for Americrap to build a RT and Time Warner Cable to blackmail your city for 4 years while every other suburb in the Metro Detroit area had cable modems for over 3 years. Stop complaining and be happy. I would kill to have my ADSL go out for 4 days every month! | |
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richb01803
Rich
join:2001-02-14
02100
| Re: Don't worry, be happy 2far, I think you're looking at it from the wrong perspective.
The issue is that if the ISPs can't make money, then they don't have the capital to invest in rolling out to new communities.
If an ISP is catering to let's say 10,000 customers, of whom say 200 of them are down on any given Thursday for an average of 4 days each, then clearly the ISP is having to spend a lot more money handling repair issues and issuing credits to all those complaining customers. (I never really had a chance to think about the maid service at those customer sites  ) That cuts into working capital. | |
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Adminmike
join:2000-07-14
Watertown, MA
| DSL is just another over glorified ISDN line that will be killed off by ILEC trying to force little Joe out of business. Those numbers are a crock. People want to go home and connect their new computer to the internet, not wait 3 months for major home renervations.
HAHAHA What a joke | |
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Re: Don't worry, be happy